Carney’s lead over Poilievre may be more about vibes than policies, new poll suggests

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The biggest trust gap (14 points) was on Canada’s need to significantly increase military spending. A clear majority (60 per cent) of respondents who were asked if they trusted Carney when he said that, whereas Poilievre only garnered the trust of 46 per cent of his respondents.

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The lowest trust gap (nine points) was on trust in developing the energy sector while still making progress in climate change commitments. There, 56 per cent of Carney questionnaire respondents said they trusted the prime minister when he said it was good policy, whereas 47 per cent said the same of Poilievre.

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And both leaders got their lowest trust scores when it came to the proposal that it’s important for Canada’s economic future to negotiate a trade deal with the United States even if some concessions need to be made by Canada. Half of those asked if they trusted Carney on that policy said yes, whereas 38 per cent said the same when it came from Poilievre’s mouth.

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“I think that’s a sign of you know a significant number of Canadians don’t want to make any concession, and so that, by its nature, kind of lowered it on both,” Enns noted.

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What also jumped out at Enns is how, for most of those now-popular policies, Poilievre was pushing his proposals well before the Liberals adopted them under Carney. The results suggest the Conservatives don’t need to make significant policy adjustments but need to focus on the leader’s image, demeanour and communication style, he said.

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“For a lot of opposition leaders, you know, a lot of times they’re on the wrong side of too many policies, and that that needs to change. But in this case, I would say the Conservatives aren’t that far off the mark from a policy standpoint,” said Enns.

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While voters were ready to “hold their nose” and vote for Poilievre at the end of Justin Trudeau’s time as Liberal leader, the same does not hold true any longer with Carney, he said.

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“If I was a Conservative strategist, I think they they might have been more careful with their leader brand at that time,” he added. “I think they were they were building up some personal negatives around around the leader, and now I think those are those are kind of haunting them a bit.”

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The Leger poll sampled 1,514 Canadians online between Aug. 1 and 3, 2026. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 2.5 per cent (19 times out of 20) for the sample.

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