Canada’s summer forecast is warmer than average, except for one region

The Old Farmer's Almanac has predicted warmer-than-average temperatures for some regions of Canada. Photo by jamesvancouver /Getty Images

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The Old Farmer’s Almanac has revealed its summer forecast, and Canada is predicted to experience “warmer than normal” weather this year.

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A publication with a long history in weather forecasting, The Old Farmer’s Almanac is America’s oldest weather forecaster — originally created as a calendar for farmers and gardeners to plan the year ahead — and is widely known for its long-range predictions.

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When it comes to Canada’s summer weather, it says: “This summer is expected to trend warmer than normal across much of the country, including southern Quebec, the Prairies, and southern British Columbia. Northern regions — including Yukon and the Northwest Territories — are also likely to see above-average warmth, while parts of southern Ontario are likely to see more mixed temperature patterns.”

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Meanwhile, rainfall patterns are expected to be more varied, resulting in a mix of wetter and drier conditions across the country.

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“Wetter conditions are expected across Atlantic Canada, southern Ontario, the southern Prairies, and southern British Columbia, while other regions — including parts of the North and interior — may see a mix of above- and below-normal precipitation.”

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The Almanac’s regional breakdown focuses largely on southern Canada, with six of seven regions forecast to see warmer-than-average temperatures.

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The outlier is Atlantic Canada, which is expected to be cooler than average, while parts of eastern southern Ontario may also trend cooler.

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Cape Spear Lighthouse, located near St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, is the most easterly point in North America. Photo by SkyF /Getty Images/iStockphoto

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The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts weather trends by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity, and claims to be 80 per cent accurate.

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National Post spoke to Professor Kent Moore, from the University of Toronto’s Department of Chemical and Physical Sciences, who explained what Canadians can expect from this summer — and why Atlantic Canada may not see above-average temperatures.

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One of the big drivers, he explained, is El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

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“With El Niño, we typically find warmer conditions in Canada during the summer, though it’s mostly in the west. So western Canada tends to have a warmer, drier summer.”

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He added: “In eastern Canada, the effects are more muted, but it will probably be a warmer summer overall.”

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In more good news for Canadians, El Niño typically results in a milder winter, too.

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“If things go as we think they’re going to, we’ll have a mild winter in Ontario next year, which would be great, having just come through a really brutal winter,” Moore says.