Can Russia serve as an economic lifeline for Iran amid the Hormuz blockade?

As Iran stares down the economical consequences of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, attraction is shifting north.

With Gulf shipping lanes disrupted and lipid exports constrained, Tehran whitethorn question to beryllium little connected the Gulf and much connected a patchwork of railways, Caspian ports and sanctions-era commercialized networks linking it to Russia.

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The value of that narration was underscored this week erstwhile Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to St Petersburg for talks with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, praising Moscow’s “firm and unshaken” enactment arsenic the 2 sides discussed the war, sanctions and the aboriginal of the Strait of Hormuz.

But could Moscow truly connection a lifeline for Iran’s beleaguered, war-torn economy, and would it adjacent privation to? We spoke to experts to find out.

Increasing but humble bilateral trade

Economic relations betwixt Iran and Russia deepened aft the US withdrew from a 2015 atomic woody with Iran and different nations successful 2018 and reimposed sweeping sanctions connected Tehran.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine successful 2022 served to accelerate that inclination arsenic some countries recovered themselves progressively chopped disconnected from the Western fiscal system. They turned to sanctions-evasion networks, alternate outgo systems and non-Western commercialized corridors to support goods, vigor and wealth flowing.

Current commercialized is dominated by cultivation products – particularly wheat, barley and maize – alongside machinery, metals, timber, fertilisers and concern inputs. Tehran has besides supplied Russia with low-cost Shahed drones, which Russia updated and has been utilizing successful its warfare connected Ukraine.

“Trade turnover reached $4.8bn past twelvemonth [2024], but we judge that the imaginable for our communal commercialized is overmuch greater,” Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov told an intergovernmental committee connected commercialized and economical practice betwixt Moscow and Tehran successful 2025.

Bilateral commercialized is reported to person accrued by 16 percent during that period, driven mostly by Russian exports of grain, metals, machinery and concern goods.

But experts accidental that contempt this increase, the wide commercialized narration remains comparatively humble compared with Iran’s commercialized with China oregon the Gulf countries.

Trade betwixt the 2 is “not substantial, due to the fact that some countries are producing astir akin products and the industries are similar”, Mahdi Ghodsi, an economist astatine the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, told Al Jazeera.

Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a gathering astatine the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Library successful Saint Petersburg, Russia, April 27, 2026 [Dmitri Lovetsky/Pool via Reuters]

Alternatives to Hormuz

The backbone of Russia-Iran commercialized is the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a web of shipping lanes, railways, and roads linking Russia to Iran and onward to Asia, bypassing Western-controlled maritime routes.

Goods determination from confederate Russian ports, crossed the Caspian Sea to bluish Iranian ports, including Bandar Anzali, earlier continuing by obstruction oregon truck.

The way has go progressively important for Russian grain, machinery and concern exports to Iran.

This way tin service arsenic a “viable but partial lifeline”, Naeem Aslam, main marketplace expert astatine London-based Think Markets, told Al Jazeera, adding that Russian ports successful Astrakhan, connected the Volga River delta adjacent the Caspian Sea, and Makhachkala, connected the Caspian Sea, are already “primed for a surge successful grain, metals, timber and refined products”.

A occidental subdivision besides runs done Azerbaijan, though a cardinal missing obstruction nexus betwixt Rasht and Astara successful bluish Iran remains unfinished.

In 2023, Moscow agreed to assistance concern the line, with Russia’s president calling the statement a “great event” that “will assistance to importantly diversify planetary postulation flows”.

Easier successful mentation than successful practice

Analysts accidental that, though these routes whitethorn supply a impermanent solution, the Strait of Hormuz offers a standard and ratio that obstruction and onshore corridors cannot easy replicate.

Although maritime commercialized has been highly volatile successful caller weeks, “from a humanities position it is simply the quickest and the astir cost-effective mode of transporting anything”, Adam Grimshaw, an economical historiographer astatine the University of Helsinki, told Al Jazeera.

“Roughly 90 percent of Iran’s planetary commercialized is maritime commercialized that goes done the Gulf, which can’t beryllium rapidly oregon instantly replaced done onshore entree to Iran oregon done aerial transport to circumvent the American blockade”, Nader Hashemi, an subordinate prof astatine Georgetown University, told Al Jazeera.

Ghodsi said Russia mightiness beryllium capable to connection a “lifeline” successful the abbreviated term, arsenic it did erstwhile it exported atom during Iran’s droughts, but successful the agelong run, it simply “cannot substitute” the immense amounts of maritime trade.

Re-routing commercialized routes via onshore “takes time”, pushing up prices for consumers and creating much nutrient discarded arsenic perishables rot en route.

Does Moscow privation to assistance Iran?

Most analysts accidental throwing an economical lifeline to Iran is not successful Russia’s interests.

“They’ve got their ain economical problems,” John Lough, caput of overseas argumentation astatine the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, told Al Jazeera, pointing to signs of stagnation wrong Russia, unit connected reserves and increasing vexation implicit the prolonged warfare successful Ukraine.

While Moscow could connection symbolic enactment oregon constricted humanitarian assistance, “now is not a bully time” to put successful Iran, helium said, referring to the US-Israel warfare connected the country.

Replacing maritime commercialized with overland routes would beryllium highly difficult, contempt years of treatment astir alternate corridors linking the 2 nations, helium said.

It besides won’t needfully assistance Iran’s economy, which needs each the export gross it tin get, experts say.

“Much of Iran’s system revolves astir the merchantability of oil, and with that blocked oregon prevented by the American blockade, Russia truly can’t assistance successful that regard”, Hashemi said.

Others are much optimistic, however.

“Propping [up] Iran locks successful higher planetary lipid prices that buoy Russia’s warfare economy, cements INSTC dominance for Asian trade, and keeps a cardinal anti-Western state live – nary downside for Moscow successful a fragmented Gulf,” Aslaam said.