Can Russia help ease tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan?

Islamabad, Pakistan – Sitting with his elbows connected his knees, Russia’s Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev leaned towards Pakistan’s service chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for talks successful Rawalpindi connected October 14.

While Kolokoltsev was successful Pakistan, Sergey Naryshkin, manager of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), flew into Kabul to conscionable the Taliban’s quality chief, Abdul Haq Wasiq.

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Officially, Russia, Pakistan and Afghanistan person issued small beyond modular statements astir the meetings. But the signs are clear: Pakistan and Afghanistan person spent the past twelvemonth exchanging fire and nationalist threats. Qatar and Turkiye brokered a ceasefire successful Doha past October and China hosted talks successful Urumqi successful April, but attacks wrong Pakistan continued. Islamabad again struck Afghan territory successful June, September and this month.

Russia present appears to beryllium stepping successful arsenic a mediator.

Moscow’s peculiar typical for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, told Russia’s TASS quality bureau earlier this period that his state was acceptable to play bid broker betwixt Kabul and Islamabad if some sides requested it.

Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia, Faisal Niaz Tirmizi, said successful March that Islamabad had approached Moscow. The Taliban, though, person not publically requested Russian mediation, raising questions astir however overmuch and successful what capableness Moscow tin propulsion Pakistan and Afghanistan to talks erstwhile different mediators person struggled.

A analyzable past adds to the situation Russia faces.

A diplomatic opening

Pakistan’s subject media wing, Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), said the Rawalpindi gathering discussed issues of “mutual involvement and the determination information environment, with peculiar accent connected strengthening bilateral information cooperation.”

The connection did not notation Afghanistan and neither Russian officials nor the Taliban person disclosed what the quality chiefs discussed. Moscow has, however, voiced interest astir the fighting.

“We are earnestly acrophobic astir the ongoing subject confrontation betwixt Pakistan and Afghanistan, which affects civilians, including children,” the Russian embassy successful Kabul posted connected X earlier this month.

The UN Assistance Mission successful Afghanistan (UNAMA) said Pakistani strikes betwixt September 30 and October 1 killed astatine slightest 10 civilians, mostly children.

In decades past, the thought of Russia mediating betwixt Pakistan and the Taliban mightiness person been unthinkable. Throughout the Cold War and adjacent aft the illness of the Soviet Union, Russia was – and remains successful galore ways – 1 of the closest strategical and subject partners of India, the neighbour Pakistan has fought aggregate wars against. While successful Afghanistan, Russia backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban passim the 1990s.

But successful caller years, Russia has importantly strengthened relations with some Pakistan and the Taliban. Then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was successful Moscow erstwhile Russian forces invaded Ukraine successful 2022. Last year, Russia became the archetypal state successful the satellite to officially recognise the Taliban authorities successful Afghanistan.

Those shifts person been driven by Russia’s tendency to broaden its options successful South Asia, astatine a clip erstwhile India has embraced the United States and to antagonistic the emergence of the Afghan subdivision of ISIL, besides known arsenic the Islamic State successful Khorasan Province oregon ISKP. While the Taliban are acrophobic with ruling Afghanistan, ISKP has broader territorial ambitions and carried retired an onslaught successful Moscow successful 2024 that killed astir 150 people. The Taliban and the ISKP are sworn enemies.

Fighting betwixt Pakistan and the Taliban created determination instability and Moscow was disquieted that could marque it easier for equipped groups to spill into Central Asia, said Taimur Khan, a probe subordinate astatine the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI).

“Mediation besides helps Moscow sphere its determination power and debar a vacuum that could invitation renewed extra-regional involvement,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Qatar and Turkiye brokered a ceasefire betwixt Pakistan and the Taliban successful Doha past October, but talks successful Istanbul collapsed the pursuing period and skirmishes resumed. Islamabad besides launched aerial raids wrong Afghanistan. China hosted talks successful Urumqi successful April.

In mid-September, Turkiye’s quality chief, Ibrahim Kalin, met Taliban officials successful Kabul and Kandahar earlier travelling to Islamabad.

An attack successful Kohat followed connected September 18, with Pakistan striking Afghanistan connected September 24 and October 1.

“Other actors person truthful acold achieved much tangible mediation results successful this conflict,” Eldaniz Gusseinov, a Central Asia expert and caput of probe astatine the geopolitical foresight agency, Nightingale Int, told Al Jazeera.

Russia’s ain effort stalled astatine a Moscow gathering connected October 5.

Kabulov told TASS that the Afghan delegation objected to Afghanistan being mentioned excessively often successful transportation with “terrorism”.

“For Pakistan, this is simply a substantive information issue, not simply a substance of wording,” Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesperson, Sajjad Haider Khan, said connected October 9 astatine a play media briefing.

Kabul-based information expert Tameem Bahiss said the objection reflected Kabul’s longstanding position.

“Accepting connection that repeatedly associates Afghanistan with coercion could beryllium seen arsenic an acknowledgement of the precise allegations Kabul has consistently denied,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Officials astatine the Moscow Format Consultations connected Afghanistan successful Moscow, October 5, 2026 [Handout/Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

The TTP problem

At the Moscow meeting, Pakistan’s peculiar typical for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq, said “terrorism” remained astatine the halfway of Afghanistan’s problems.

Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi said the 2 countries’ problems could beryllium resolved done dialog and diplomacy, according to Afghan media.

Pakistan says the Pakistani Taliban and different equipped groups structure successful Afghanistan.

Kabul rejects the allegation, saying it does not let its territory to beryllium utilized against different countries and that Pakistan’s information problems are mostly internal, Bahiss said.

Moscow’s nationalist warnings person focused connected the ISKP.

“There is nary disposable nationalist unit from Russia connected the Taliban implicit Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Moscow is improbable to exert specified pressure,” Gusseinov said. TTP is the authoritative sanction of the Pakistani Taliban, which is down dozens of the deadliest attacks Pakistan has suffered successful caller years.

He argued that pressing the Taliban hard connected Pakistan’s behalf would undermine Moscow’s lasting arsenic a neutral mediator and its concern with the Taliban against ISKP.

“Russia’s superior interest is ISKP and it appears satisfied with the Taliban’s efforts to antagonistic the group,” Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based expert specialising successful equipped groups and information dynamics successful Afghanistan and Pakistan, told Al Jazeera.

What Moscow brings

Still, Russia has thing earlier mediators did not. In July 2025, it became the lone state to recognise the Taliban government.

Taimur Khan said that could springiness Moscow different root of influence.

“The Taliban authorities’ involvement successful preserving that designation and expanding practice with Moscow could springiness Russia further power successful seeking enactment against the TTP and different violent groups operating from Afghanistan,” helium said.

In May, the 2 sides signed an unpublished military-technical agreement covering, according to Kabulov, the repair and attraction of instrumentality the Taliban already hold, mostly Soviet and Russian-made.

Three days aft the signing, the Taliban’s Defence Minister, Mohammad Yaqoob, said Pakistan would soon nary longer situation to motorboat strikes.

On June 9 and 10, Pakistani craft struck Kunar, Khost and Paktika provinces, sidesplitting 13 civilians, according to the Afghan government.

“Russia has greater entree to the Taliban than immoderate different large power, but its existent leverage is considerably much constricted than is often assumed,” expert Gusseinov said.

Sayed said elder Taliban leaders continued visiting Russia and India arsenic warring escalated, seemingly signalling they could offset Pakistan’s subject superiority done caller alignments.

“While the subject and governmental value of these ties remains unclear, the Taliban contiguous specified diplomatic developments to the Afghan public, peculiarly their supporters, arsenic governmental achievements that reenforce their representation of strength,” helium said.

Why the SCO matters

Pakistan chairs the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) for 2026-27 and volition big the 10-member bloc’s acme successful Islamabad adjacent year.

The Taliban were not invited to this year’s summit successful Bishkek, wherever members called for an inclusive authorities successful Kabul.

On July 16, then-Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said Afghanistan archetypal needed diplomatic relations with subordinate states, erstwhile asked whether Pakistan was blocking its inclusion successful the SCO.

In September, Tirmizi, the Pakistani envoy successful Moscow, said helium did not spot afloat SCO rank for Afghanistan arsenic an enactment nether the existent Taliban government.

“The chairmanship strengthens Moscow’s reasons to put successful its narration with Pakistan and negociate differences implicit Afghanistan constructively,” Taimur Khan said.

The Foreign Office did not reply Al Jazeera’s questions astir whether the Taliban would beryllium invited adjacent year.

“I cannot callback an lawsuit wherever Kabul has explicitly requested Moscow to mediate betwixt the 2 countries,” Bahiss said. “Nevertheless, Kabul’s repeated calls for diplomacy and its comparatively adjacent relations with Russia suggest that it would apt invited Russian mediation if Moscow offered to play specified a role.”