Can Gulf countries defend themselves against renewed Iranian attacks?

Air defence systems were activated successful Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan again this week aft Iran launched different question of attacks it said were aimed astatine United States subject installations.

It followed a renewed US bombardment of Iran’s confederate coast, including astir the larboard cities of Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Jask, and Qeshm island.

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The latest speech comes little than a period aft Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of knowing (MoU) intended to halt a warfare that broke retired connected February 28 aft Israel and the US launched strikes connected Iran. Both sides person since accused the different of violating the agreement, with the renewed escalation centring partially connected the Strait of Hormuz, wherever the memorandum states that Iran has power implicit planetary maritime traffic.

Iranian forces person attacked commercialized vessels disconnected the seashore of Oman, with the US connected July 8 saying it had deed Iranian subject positions it claims were progressive successful threats to shipping successful the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by firing missiles and drones astatine bases crossed the Gulf wherever US forces are deployed.

The renewed attacks crossed the Gulf person exposed an uncomfortable paradox for Washington’s determination partners: The US subject beingness makes them targets, but it besides protects their cities against Iranian missiles and drones, experts person told Al Jazeera.

The contiguous interest for the Gulf states is whether their layered aerial defence networks tin proceed to withstand sustained Iranian attacks if the confrontation betwixt Washington and Tehran moves towards a much aggravated and protracted conflict.

A widening war

The governments and militaries of Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan person said they faced incoming missiles and drones implicit the past week, and person condemned Iranian attacks.

Iran has claimed that its attacks deed a substance depot successful Jordan, a chopper attraction installation successful Bahrain, substance tanks successful Kuwait and a Patriot aerial defence system. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) besides said it targeted and destroyed “the FPS long-range aerial radar and the vas detection radar successful Oman”. Those claims person not been independently verified.

Iran has consistently claimed to beryllium targeting US subject positions, not the Gulf states themselves, but its missiles and drones are entering Gulf airspace, striking sovereign territory, and causing civilian casualties owed to interceptions oregon nonstop strikes. Qatar said 3 people, including a child, were injured by falling shrapnel during the interception of an Iranian rocket connected Sunday.

Gulf governments person repeatedly insisted that their territory is not being utilized arsenic a launchpad for strikes connected Iran, but this has not prevented Tehran from targeting US positions and different locations wrong their borders.

The US paradox

The US operates subject facilities successful astatine slightest 19 locations across the Middle East and North Africa, including successful Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

An estimated 50,000 US soldiers are stationed crossed the region, and this subject beingness sits astatine the bosom of the Gulf’s information dilemma.

“The Gulf states are successful a hindrance due to the fact that they’re being targeted owed to their relationships with the US, but their relations with the US and the beingness of those bases person besides meant that galore of the attacks person mostly been thwarted oregon their consequences diminished,” Simon Mabon, a prof of planetary relations astatine Lancaster University, told Al Jazeera.

How beardown are Gulf aerial defences?

Gulf countries person spent decades gathering layered aerial defence networks, combining US, European, and, successful immoderate cases, Russian, Chinese and Israeli systems.

These scope from long-range interceptor missiles susceptible of engaging threats much than 100km (60 miles) distant to medium- and short-range systems protecting idiosyncratic subject bases, lipid installations and municipality areas.

Saudi Arabia, for instance, possesses the Gulf’s largest aerial defence network, anchored by US-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems and Patriot PAC-3 batteries. The UAE besides operates THAAD and Patriot systems, alongside a mentation of Israel’s Barak aerial defence platform.

Qatar has invested successful Patriot batteries and the Norwegian-US-made NASAMS III system.

Kuwait fields Patriot PAC-3 batteries for long-range defence, Italian Aspide launchers paired with Skyguard systems, and Stinger, Starburst and FIM-92 missiles for constituent defence.

Bahrain has precocious acquired the Patriot PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement system.

Oman has less precocious long- and medium-range systems than its neighbours, but does person NASAMS, French Mistral missiles and the portable Russian Strela-2 systems, backed by respective anti-aircraft weapon platforms.

These limb systems networks person demonstrated that they tin intercept incoming threats. But nary aerial defence strategy is impenetrable, and often these defences are supported by US aerial defences.

“What the interceptions person revealed is that US aerial defences are incredibly worthwhile. Even though the US beingness makes the Gulf states targets, the beingness of the US subject is besides protecting them,” Mabon said.

Bader Mousa Al-Saif, an subordinate chap with Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme and a prof astatine Kuwait University, told Al Jazeera the Gulf’s adjacent information narration with the United States has enabled its states to support what helium described arsenic “an exemplary antiaircraft posture”.

Gulf countries, helium said, had recorded “some of the highest interception rates seen successful caller months”.

“That reflects some their continued concern successful information ties with the United States and a broader effort to diversify their defence partnerships,” helium said.

Al-Saif pointed to the June 25 ministerial gathering betwixt the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), wherever Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Gulf leaders reaffirmed their shared committedness to determination security. In a associated statement, GCC states stressed “the request to support momentum and unity arsenic negotiations proceed toward a much imperishable extremity to hostilities.”

The outgo of interception

Iran has invested heavy successful comparatively cheap, mobile and domestically produced Shahed drones designed to endanger infrastructure without depending connected large, fixed radar installations that tin beryllium readily detected.

Many Iranian drones tin beryllium produced astatine a fraction of the outgo of the missiles utilized to sprout them down, with reports stating they are produced arsenic cheaply arsenic $30,000.

By comparison, precocious interceptor missiles tin outgo millions of dollars each. A sustained Iranian run could truthful unit Gulf countries and the US to expend costly and finite missiles against acold cheaper incoming weapons.

“The biggest situation is capacity, and that’s becoming an expanding concern, peculiarly the continued usage of precise costly interceptor missiles against comparatively inexpensive drones”, Mabon said.

Iran truthful does not needfully request to overwhelm each furniture of Gulf aerial defences, accidental analysts. Instead, it tin enforce costs by keeping Gulf and US aerial defence systems connected changeless alert, depleting interceptor stocks and stretching unit and logistics. The contest, analysts say, is becoming 1 of endurance arsenic overmuch arsenic subject technology.

However, Al-Saif said that this vantage whitethorn beryllium impermanent arsenic the defence manufacture adapts. “We’re already seeing the defence manufacture respond by producing lower-cost interceptors. Over time, that volition alteration the economics of rocket defence and amended lucifer the asymmetric threats Gulf countries face, peculiarly from Iran,” helium said.

Al-Saif besides added that the existent confrontation remains a “no war, nary peace” scenario, with some Iran and the United States engaging successful a calibrated escalation alternatively than seeking a decisive subject victory.

“Because some sides are mostly mirroring 1 another’s actions, the struggle creates abstraction for each to replenish subject stocks and hole for the adjacent signifier alternatively than exhaust their capabilities each astatine once.”

This comes against the backdrop of uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s America First overseas argumentation besides raises longer-term questions astir Washington’s tendency to support a costly subject beingness successful the region.

Can the Gulf support itself without Washington?

The existent situation is accelerating efforts to amended subject practice among the Gulf states. This includes the sharing of radar data, tracking missiles and craft crossed borders, coordinating informing systems and processing much integrated aerial defences, experts say.

“What we’re starting to spot is simply a doubling down connected inter-Gulf relations and the improvement of shared quality and shared information – tracking flights and sharing aerial defence intelligence,” Mabon said.

“We’re seeing ceremonial GCC agreements and greater cooperation. We’re besides seeing diversification alongside an over-reliance connected the US, successful the anticipation that they could support themselves if US engagement were reduced.”

A imaginable semipermanent exemplary for Gulf states would beryllium to clasp ties with the US arsenic good arsenic put successful home defence industries.

Examples see caller defence partnerships with Ukraine, South Korea and respective European countries, aimed astatine strengthening home defence manufacturing and reducing dependence connected a azygous supplier.

Another enactment could beryllium to grow determination subject agreements, specified arsenic Saudi Arabia’s communal defence pact with Pakistan, signed past September, which states that an onslaught connected 1 state is considered an onslaught connected both.

The UAE and Bahrain, meanwhile, person deepened their information ties with Israel.

Living alongside Iran

Analysts accidental Gulf states intimately aligned with Washington recognise that a functioning governmental narration with Iran is indispensable owed to its adjacent proximity to them.

The UAE restored diplomatic relations with Iran successful 2022. Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to normalise ties successful 2023 nether a woody brokered by China, some apt a calculation that engagement with Iran was safer than imperishable confrontation.

While the Iranian attacks connected Gulf states person tested this idea, they person not needfully shattered it.

“Ultimately, Gulf countries can’t alteration geography. They person to unrecorded and enactment alongside Iran,” Mabon said. “They don’t privation the instability that would travel from the autumn of the Islamic Republic. I deliberation immoderate Gulf states person pushed for harder strikes – not to precipitate its collapse, but to weaken the much hardline elements of the IRGC.”

Economic exposure

At the aforesaid time, restrictions connected shipping successful the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the US endanger the revenues from lipid and state exports that Gulf states trust on, adjacent if overmuch of their vigor infrastructure remains intact.

The UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are peculiarly exposed to disruption astir the waterway, arsenic astir oregon each of their ports for export prevarication wrong the strait.

Trita Parsi, enforcement vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said assurance successful diplomacy to extremity the situation remains low, but astatine the aforesaid clip nary federation successful the portion “can spend different agelong war”.

As a result, that “will support them distant from a wholly uncontrolled level of escalation”, and depleted planetary lipid inventories volition marque a prolonged confrontation betwixt the US and Iran unattractive.

“All inventories person not been capable to beryllium replenished,” during the ceasefire, helium said. “We are astatine a overmuch little level globally”.

Gulf diplomacy

Gulf states person mostly preferred engagement alternatively than confrontation with Iran. Qatar and Oman, contempt being attacked successful the past fewer days, person played a cardinal relation successful diplomatic efforts betwixt Iran and the US successful caller years.

Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has warned that renewed strikes and escalation undermine mediation efforts, but it has not ended the efforts for a diplomatic extremity to the conflict.

The Gulf states’ economical models are built connected stability: The question of trade, capital, tourists and migrant workers crossed a portion marketed arsenic safe, connected to the extracurricular satellite and unfastened for business.

War strikes astatine the instauration of that model. “The struggle has dramatically affected each of these areas,” said Mabon.

“The Gulf states are defending themselves close now. But the existent question is whether this is the resumption of a longer struggle oregon simply different convulsive bout of posturing betwixt Iran and the United States up of a resumption of talks.”