Ballon d’Or 2026: Can Bayern’s Harry Kane end England’s 25 years of hurt?

When the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremonial gets nether mode astatine the London Palladium this Monday, overmuch of England volition anticipation it serves arsenic a bully omen.

After all, the English haven’t seen 1 of their ain assistance the aureate shot – football’s astir prestigious idiosyncratic award – successful 25 years.

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Michael Owen was the embodiment of English pridefulness erstwhile helium won the accolade successful 2001. Now, it is Harry Kane who could bring his federation an honour each footballer dreams of.

So, what are Kane’s likelihood of winning the Ballon d’Or? Al Jazeera takes a look:

The champion play of Kane’s vocation bodes good for Ballon d’Or

Remember the clip erstwhile Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo scored 50-plus goals for fun? When a shot forward’s extremity tally looked much similar a batsman’s cricket score?

Kane’s 2025-26 goal-scoring exploit is the closest we person experienced to that successful caller years.

The England captain’s 73-goal show past season was the finest show the satellite has seen since Argentinian fable Messi’s 82-goal tally successful 2011-12.

“I’ve ne'er liked to speech astir myself excessively much,” Kane said successful an interrogation past month.

“The lone happening I would accidental is that past play was incredible, connected a idiosyncratic level and arsenic a team.

“It was, by far, the champion play of my life.”

Age is nary occupation for England and Bayern Munich’s Kane

He scored an unthinkable 36 goals past season, making Kane the Bundesliga’s apical scorer for the 3rd twelvemonth moving and earning him a 2nd European Golden Shoe, portion finishing 9 goals wide of Manchester City’s Erling Haaland successful the continental race.

The Bayern Munich forward’s statistic look adjacent much awesome fixed helium is seemingly peaking astatine 33, an property erstwhile astir forwards are acold beyond their prime.

Kane is bidding to articulation the ranks of Messi, Luka Modric and Karim Benzema, immoderate of the recipients of the past 10 editions who won the Ballon d’Or successful their 30s.

Standing successful his way, however, are 2 precise talented juniors – Spain’s superstar-in-the-making, Lamine Yamal, who won the 2026 FIFA World Cup soon aft his 19th birthday, and France’s 2018 satellite champion, Kylian Mbappe, who is 27.

When Kane made his Premier League debut for Tottenham Hotspur successful 2014, Yamal was inactive successful superior school, and Mbappe was successful precocious school.

Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane lifts the trophy arsenic helium celebrates with teammates aft winning the Bundesliga [File: Angelika Warmuth/Reuters]

Could Champions League and World Cup woes wounded Kane’s bid?

Since Kane moved from London to Munich, the guardant has taken German nine shot by storm, and 2025-26 was nary different. He finished the run with 3 trophies: the Bundesliga title, DFB-Pokal (the German Cup) and Franz Beckenbauer Supercup (the German Supercup).

But his nonaccomplishment to marque an interaction successful the Champions League semifinal outgo Bayern Europe’s astir coveted nine trophy, and the aforesaid was the lawsuit astatine the caller World Cup, wherever helium finished 3rd with England.

While World Cup occurrence is not a strict request to triumph the Ballon d’Or, having a satellite rubric connected your CV decidedly helps. Furthermore, being pitted against 2026 World Cup winners Yamal and Rodri – besides the 2024 Ballon d’Or recipient – could wounded Kane’s odds.

Recent past suggests that winning a rubric successful 1 of the large tournaments has go astir a prerequisite.

Only 4 of the erstwhile 19 Ballon d’Or winners failed to assistance either the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship oregon Copa America during the twelvemonth they won the honour.

Those exceptions see grounds eight-time Ballon d’Or recipient Messi and five-time victor Ronaldo.

England’s Harry Kane settled for bronze astatine the 2026 World Cup [File: Carlos Barria/Reuters]

Kane is the bookmakers’ favourite to triumph the Ballon d’Or

Only clip volition archer whether falling abbreviated successful large competitions’ important knockout rounds volition determine Kane’s fate, but for now, helium is the bookmakers’ starring campaigner for the trophy.

As of Tuesday, Kane holds astir 65-70 percent marketplace stock to go the successor to Ousmane Dembele, the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner.

Unlike different Ballon d’Or contenders, particularly the outspoken Yamal and Mbappe, who are campaigning hard for the award, Kane has been comparatively quiet.

Bayern are speaking up for their leader, having enactment unneurotic a video successful which teammates said Kane should win.

“He deserves to triumph it, 100 percent, without a doubt,” said Colombian Luis Diaz, who is besides connected the shortlist.

If Kane wins the award, helium would go lone the 5th English subordinate to bash truthful aft Stanley Matthews, Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Michael Owen.