Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula- US Open prediction, form, head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka tin publication a spot successful the US Open women’s last for a 4th consecutive juncture with a triumph connected Thursday implicit Jessica Pegula.

In the past eight, the reigning two-time champion of this lawsuit won a three-set thriller implicit Linda Noskova 7-6 (7-1) 3-6 7-6 (10-7), portion Pegula came from down to decision Emma Navarro, 3-6 6-4 6-3.

Match preview

Despite a swift situation from Noskova successful her past match, Aryna Sabalenka showed plentifulness of quality successful the clutch to support her quest for a US Open three-peat intact.

The Belarusian prima mislaid her archetypal acceptable of the tourney but captured 45 receiving points wide to scope the last four.

She has won implicit 70% of her archetypal serves successful 4 of her 5 matches astatine Flushing Meadows and has registered a combined 13 treble faults astatine the tourney this year.

A decision connected Thursday would people the archetypal clip she ends a twelvemonth without a Grand Slam singles rubric since 2022.

Thursday volition besides people her 15th quality successful the semi-finals of a large singles tourney and the Belarusian has precocious successful 7 of those past 8 instances.

Sabalenka has won her past 7 Grand Slam singles semi-final affairs connected the hard court, coming from a acceptable down astatine this signifier of the 2025 US Open to decision Jessica Pegula.

She started dilatory for a 2nd clip successful 3 matches but successful the extremity Jessica Pegula came connected beardown erstwhile needed to advance.

In 2 of her past 3 US Open singles outings, she has dropped the archetypal acceptable and gone connected to win, collecting 53 receiving points successful her quarter-final affair.

As a result, the 32-year-old American is done to her 3rd consecutive US Open semi-final, with her upcoming hostile eliminating her successful each of the past 2 editions of this tournament.

On Thursday she could decision Sablenka astatine a Grand Slam singles lawsuit for the archetypal clip and extremity a three-match losing tally successful the semi-finals of a large tournament.

At the US Open this year, she has converted 23 interruption points successful her 5 matches portion winning implicit 70% of her archetypal serves connected 3 occasions.

Pegula has won conscionable 1 of her past 5 sets successful the semi-finals of a Grand Slam singles tourney with her lone last 4 triumph astatine a large tourney occurring aft losing the opening acceptable successful 2024.

Tournament truthful far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Camila Osorio 6-2 6-4

Second round: vs. Polina Iatcenko 6-1 6-1

Third round: vs. Kamilla Rakhimova 6-3 6-4

Round of 16: vs. Taylor Townsend 6-4 6-3

Quarter-final: vs. Linda Noskova 7-6 (7-1) 3-6 7-6 (10-7)

Jessica Pegula:

First round: vs. Elena-Gabriele Ruse 6-3 6-2

Second round: vs. Sofia Kenin 6-3 6-1

Third round: vs. Leylah Fernandez 1-6 6-4 6-3

Round of 16: vs. Sorana Cirstea 6-3 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Emma Navarro 3-6 6-4 6-3

Head To Head

Cincinnati Open (2020) - Round of 16: Pegula wins 6-2 2-6 6-3

French Open (2020) - First Round: Sabalenka wins 6-3 6-1

Madrid Open (2021) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 6-1 6-2

Italian Open (2022) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 6-1 6-4

WTA Finals (2022) - First Round: Sabalenka wins 6-3 7-5

WTA Finals (2023) - First Round: Pegula wins 6-4 6-3

Cincinnati Open (2024) - Final: Sabalenka wins 6-3 7-5

US Open (2024) - Final: Sabalenka wins 7-5 7-5

Miami Open (2025) - Final: Sabalenka wins 7-5 6-2 

US Open (2025) - Semi-finals: Sabalenka wins 4-6 6-3 6-4

Wuhan Open (2025) - Semi-finals: Pegula wins 2-6 6-4 7-6

WTA Finals (2025) - First round: Sabalenka wins 6-4 2-6 6-3 

Berlin Open (2026) - Semi-finals: Pegula wins 6-4 6-7 (4-7) 6-0

When these ladies archetypal squared disconnected six years ago, Pegula overcame a resilient Sabalenka acknowledgment to her 5 interruption points with lone 2 treble faults.

Sabalenka avenged that nonaccomplishment astatine Roland Garros by winning 71% of her 2nd serves and converting six interruption constituent opportunities.

The Belarusian took the wide pb against her successful Madrid the pursuing year, registering 8 aces portion winning 86% of her archetypal serves.

A twelvemonth later, it was Sabalenka’s crook to prevail again, hitting 9 aces portion failing to concede 1 versus Pegula.

The American got backmost successful the triumph file against Sabalenka astatine the 2023 WTA Finals, winning 81% of her archetypal serves and converting 5 interruption points.

In 2024, Sabalenka bested Pegula to seizure the 2024 Cincinnati Open, acknowledgment to her 10 aces portion winning 91% of her archetypal serves.

At Flushing Meadows 2 years ago, it was Sabalenka who emerged victorious acknowledgment to her six interruption points converted connected the day.

Sabalenka did it the hard mode erstwhile these 2 met successful the US Open semi-finals successful 2025, coming from a acceptable down to win, registering 8 aces on the way.

Pegula earned a uncommon triumph implicit Sabalenka astatine the Wuhan Open that twelvemonth by winning 56% of her 2nd serves, portion her hostile posted conscionable 23% successful that department.

A beardown 3rd acceptable successful Berlin enabled Pegula to prevail implicit her again this year, arsenic the American registered conscionable 1 treble responsibility connected that occasion.

We say: Sabalenka to triumph successful 3 sets

We don’t uncertainty that this volition beryllium a back-and-forth contest, but successful the extremity Sabalenka ever seems to bring her champion successful the large moments of large tournaments, and we judge her champion volition beryllium capable to squeak by Pegula connected Thursday.