Adam Zivo: It is in Canada’s interest to forge deeper ties with Ukraine

Prime Minister Mark Carney, left, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Photo by Gavin Young/Postmedia

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Some critics have argued that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s pursuit of an enhanced alliance with Ukraine undermines Canadian interests. In truth, investing in Kyiv’s defence puts Canada first by cost-effectively safeguarding our country in an increasingly perilous world.

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Consider our fragile Arctic sovereignty, for example. Both Russia and China have made clear that they want to dominate the Far North. Their ambitions are neither hypothetical nor abstract: Moscow has been rapidly expanding its Arctic military footprint, eliciting intense concern among Canadian security experts who worry about control over the Northwest Passage and natural resources.

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This is why Canada has been expanding its own Arctic capabilities — including a recently announced $40-billion investment in northern military and civilian infrastructure, and another $11.3 billion to build six new icebreakers for the Coast Guard. But it will take years, if not decades, to secure our North.

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Canada obviously benefits if Russia, our main Arctic rival, is militarily degraded by the Ukrainians. At the very least, it buys us precious time to fortify our territory. Alternatively, if we allow Kyiv to fall, we will have to contend with an emboldened Moscow that will have absorbed Ukraine’s now-formidable defence industry.

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Canada also urgently needs access to Ukraine’s world-leading expertise on wartime drone technology and robotics. The Ukrainians are so prodigious in this realm that they dominated their NATO peers in a recent war exercise. Our military, meanwhile, lacks practical experience in deploying these assets and relies on equipment that is often obsolete and in disrepair.

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Ukraine’s cost-efficient, battle-tested innovations will be indispensable for preparing Canadians for a new generation of warfare, especially because drones can be effectively deployed over vast, underpopulated territories (one need only look to Ukraine’s deep strikes inside Russia to understand their efficacy).

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But western access to this knowledge will be stymied if Ukraine collapses, leaving Russia and its authoritarian allies with an enduring advantage.

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The third and perhaps most underappreciated danger of Ukraine’s defeat is nuclear proliferation. For decades, western-aligned middle powers have refrained from developing their own nukes thanks to the protection of the American nuclear umbrella. Now that Washington is perceived as an unreliable ally, some may seek alternate arrangements.

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Ukraine’s defeat could spur countries like Germany and Poland to develop their own nuclear weapons, and then, indirectly, South Korea and Japan. This is not empty speculation: these countries have already been debating going nuclear.

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Defending our North, modernizing our military and slowing down nuclear proliferation are all worthy objectives. Supporting Ukraine cannot by itself solve these issues, but it constitutes an essential part of our security toolkit.

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Canada has spent, on average, around $6 billion per year on Ukraine since 2022. That isn’t a negligible sum, but it represents only around 0.25 per cent of our gross domestic product, or about 10 per cent of the 2025-26 defence budget. This is ultimately a modest price to pay to help keep Canadians safe. National security isn’t free, after all.