A Trump adviser’s outburst and a new poll suggest Canada’s tariff strategy is landing

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“Tariffs are, I think, one factor in that, but it’s really just the state of the economy,” he said.  

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He says tariffs are less of a standalone trade-policy issue than a shorthand for voters’ broader anxiety about the cost of living. He also doubts Americans really understand tariffs.

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“I don’t think that people could frankly tell you what a tariff is or what it does,” he said.

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But on this, Ekins pushed back, inferring that Trump has been using his favourite word, “tariffs,” a lot over the past two years.

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“Ordinarily, trade and tariffs have very little to do with people’s vote. But here’s the difference: Donald Trump has made trade and tariffs his signature economic policy,” she said.

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“This year, tariffs are on the ballot because now people think of tariffs as being, ‘You’re raising my prices.’”

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While Hale believes some working-class people who were once Democrats and voted for Trump will go back to voting Democrat, the pollsters disagree. They say no matter how frustrated they are by higher prices, most Republicans are about as likely to vote for Democrats as Maple Leafs fans are to start cheering for the Canadiens.

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Instead, how Republicans fare will come down to one thing: turnout.

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Will Republicans show up on election day? “The hardcore ones will, but the more modestly Republican are the ones that are least likely to show up,” Smith said.

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Ekins echoed this. “I don’t expect them all to rush to the Democrats. They’re going to sit at home and not turn out to vote in the midterms.”

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Americans still like the idea of using tariffs to support domestic manufacturing, Ekins said, but they are far less enthusiastic about paying higher prices for it.

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That reluctance is especially pronounced when the target is Canada. In the Cato/Morning Consult survey, 56 per cent opposed tariffs on Canadian goods — the strongest opposition among the countries tested. Meanwhile, majorities of 57 and 60 per cent, respectively, supported tariffs on China and Russia.

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Ekins explained that U.S. voters seemed willing to accept tariffs when the duties are framed as a national-security tool against adversaries, not in trade with close allies. 

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“Canada is the one country Americans do not want to put tariffs on,” Ekins said, noting that Britain was a close second.

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Kondik agrees, noting, “It’s a lot easier to point the pitchfork at China than it is to point the pitchfork at Canada.”

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“Most Americans don’t understand why we’re having a trade war with Canada,” Hale pointed out.

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He also noted that Navarro’s stark comments amounted to an effort to blame Canada for voter frustration with the administration’s tariff policy, rather than acknowledging the policy’s political cost.

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As for election results, pollsters and trade watchers expect the Democrats to win a majority in the House of Representatives, while the Senate remains a closer call. Kondik puts it at 50/50 for now, but Smith expects the Democrats to also win that chamber.

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Hale believes the administration is seriously underestimating how severe a midterm defeat Republicans could be facing.

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“I think they’re in for a real pasting,” he said, adding, “I don’t think, quite frankly, this administration has tuned into how potentially horrific this could be for them.”

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National Post

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