Zelenskyy has no cards to play against Russia or the West

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s creator skills person earned him the estimation of a nationalist relations genius acknowledged by some friends and foes. United States President Donald Trump, who has openly attacked him successful public, famously called the Ukrainian person “the top salesman connected Earth”. A overmuch much sympathetic voice, New York Times columnist David French, has precocious portrayed Zelenskyy arsenic “the caller person of escaped world”.

But Zelenskyy’s PR genius tin bash precise small erstwhile it comes to changing the dynamics of the battlefield successful the Russia-Ukraine war. In caller weeks, his medication and allies person tried hard to make the content that the warfare mightiness beryllium approaching a turning point. But realities connected the crushed archer a antithetic story.

For example, determination were authoritative claims that successful February, Ukraine made much territorial gains than Russia did. Some pro-Ukrainian warfare monitoring platforms person supported these claims portion others person not. It is important to note  these calculations tin beryllium tricky fixed that on the frontline determination is an extended grey portion successful which power is unclear. The advances themselves are measured successful 150-200 quadrate kilometres per month. In different words, methodology tin beryllium manipulated successful bid to nutrient the desired conclusion: that Ukraine is gaining ground.

In reality, determination is thing astatine each that suggests a important alteration successful the battlefield dynamics that person been successful spot for astatine slightest 2 years now.

More importantly, Russian troops are presently besieging a fig of concern cities successful the northbound of the Donetsk region. Their advances each on the bluish border, successful particular, are extending the progressive beforehand enactment by hundreds of kilometres, which is making Ukraine’s unit shortages adjacent much acute.

Four years into the war, the Ukrainian service has had to edifice to brutal campaigns to enforce mandatory conscription, pulling young men disconnected the streets of towns and villages. Meanwhile, Russia is inactive capable to lure volunteers by offering lavish compensation.

Ukrainian officials person besides claimed that Russia is losing much troops than it is capable to enlistee based connected dubious casualty data. Zelenskyy, successful particular, has stated the Russians suffered the highest fig of monthly casualties successful March this twelvemonth – 35,000. But his connection contradicted his ain Ministry of Defence, which claimed that the highest Russian monthly losses crossed 48,000 successful January 2025, with an mean monthly complaint of astir 35,000 passim 2025.

Zelenskyy’s main of staff, erstwhile subject quality main Kyrylo Budanov, besides contradicted this communicative that Russia is having large trouble with deploying personnel. He acknowledged successful a caller interrogation that the illness of the Russian mobilisation effort was not forthcoming.

It should beryllium noted that Ukraine is waging a palmy drone run to harm Russian lipid facilities. But it is doubtful that it could alteration thing beyond providing melodramatic footage of lipid tanks connected occurrence for TV networks to broadcast.

In April, Russian lipid revenues surged to $9bn, acknowledgment to the US-Israel warfare connected Iran. The windfall Russia got successful a period is equivalent to 10 percent of the indebtedness Ukraine is to person from the European Union implicit the adjacent 2 years to assistance money its warfare effort.

It cannot beryllium denied that Russia has sustained large economical losses owed to the war, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged arsenic much. But the Russian system displays overmuch the aforesaid downturn arsenic different European economies, besides affected by wars successful Ukraine and Iran.

Russia’s gross home merchandise (GDP) per capita adjusted for purchasing powerfulness parity (an indicator reflecting surviving standards) presently exceeds that of little affluent EU countries, specified arsenic Romania and Greece, according to the IMF charts. The aforesaid indicator for Ukraine is connected par with Mongolia and Egypt, portion the country’s captious infrastructure lies successful ruins and millions of Ukrainians person fled the country, astir of them for good.

With Ukraine’s prospects bleaker than ever, pro-Ukrainian audiences leap connected each quality from Russia, which they anticipation whitethorn signify “cracks successful the regime”. Last month, an Instagram video by Russian influencer Victoria Bonya made Western headlines for its daring disapproval of authorities policies. There whitethorn beryllium vexation successful Russia, but the authorities is acold from approaching a downfall.

This narrative, however, serves to distract Ukrainian and EU citizens from the achy information that the warfare is heading towards a deadlock astatine champion and Ukraine’s illness astatine worst. Zelenskyy whitethorn person received a lifeline with the $90bn euro loan, but his and his allies’ deficiency of imaginativeness and winning strategy is staggering.

The world has already begun to footwear in. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz precocious suggested that Ukraine would person to concede immoderate of its territory to Russia to extremity the warfare but get a faster way to EU rank successful exchange. The EU’s defence chief, Andrius Kubilius, has gone further by claiming that NATO rank for Ukraine was retired of the question and EU rank was going to beryllium a “complicated process”. Instead, helium projected a subject national of Ukraine and different European countries – an thought that Moscow volition reject, interpreting it arsenic NATO done the backmost door.

What these contradictory statements manifest is that the main bargain implicit the contours of bid is presently going not truthful overmuch betwixt Zelenskyy and Putin, but betwixt Zelenskyy and his Western, chiefly European, allies.

As Budanov precocious claimed, the positions of Kyiv and Moscow tin beryllium moved person to what is realistically attainable successful bid talks. But Zelenskyy needs to amusement astatine slightest immoderate benignant of summation for Ukraine erstwhile a precise unpalatable mentation of a bid pact is yet signed. Ideally, that summation would beryllium EU rank oregon existent information guarantees, but arsenic Merz and Kubilius’s statements suggest, the chances of attaining either are slim.

The vexation among Ukrainians is already palpable. The caput of the Ukrainian parliament’s fiscal committee, Danylo Hetmantsev, said European officials should halt seeing Ukrainians arsenic “a instrumentality for solving someone’s geopolitical tasks” oregon arsenic a “human shield”. They person nary close to specify Ukraine’s destiny, helium insisted.

But Zelenskyy, who is dogged by a large-scale probe into corruption involving his contiguous entourage, seems to clasp nary cards to play against Russia oregon his Western allies. The presumption quo successful which helium retains the presumption of a warfare person serves him well, but it is progressively becoming untenable.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.