With US-Iran trust broken again, can Pakistan bring them back to talks?

Islamabad, Pakistan – A woody panelled bookshelf down him, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the memorandum of knowing (MoU) betwixt the United States and Iran, aimed astatine extending their ceasefire by creating a pathway towards semipermanent peace.

Sharif past held up the papers for the cameras. That was June 17, the precocious constituent of a frenzied diplomatic effort led by Pakistan spanning weeks, which had culminated successful the MoU that Sharif signed arsenic a mediator.

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Yet little than 4 weeks later, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has, successful conscionable the past fewer days, issued 2 statements expressing “deep concern” implicit renewed US-Iran hostilities, with the MoU Islamabad had helped propulsion unneurotic seemingly successful shreds.

On Monday morning, the US launched the latest successful a bid of attacks on Iran, which responded by firing missiles and drones at aggregate Gulf and Arab nations that it blamed for hosting US subject bases.

Hours later, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters that mediators, including Pakistan, Qatar and Oman, remained engaged and were continuing their efforts, adjacent arsenic helium warned that Iran would proceed responding to what it viewed arsenic US non-compliance with the MoU.

So far, those efforts person failed to dilatory down the fighting, adjacent arsenic Pakistan has pressed connected with diplomatic outreach.

On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar spoke by telephone with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, telling him that dialog and diplomacy remained “the lone viable path” to resolving the crisis.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif besides spoke to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian connected Friday, informing that “hard-earned” bid gains were astatine risk, portion Dar held a abstracted telephone connected Saturday with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

To galore analysts, 1 question, supra all, present stares astatine Pakistan and different mediators similar Qatar: With the heavy distrust betwixt the US and Iran lone further expanding pursuing the caller bout of fighting, tin Islamabad oregon immoderate different superior erstwhile again bring Washington and Tehran backmost to the negotiating table?

Repeated breakdowns

The renewed warring marks astatine slightest the 3rd juncture since the US-Iran ceasefire signed connected April 8 appeared to person collapsed.

Days aft that truce was agreed on, the breakdown of the archetypal circular of Islamabad talks led to the US imposing a naval blockade connected Iranian ships successful the Strait of Hormuz. The US and Iran some attacked ships successful the days that followed.

Then, aft the MoU was signed connected June 17, Iran attacked respective ships that it claimed were passing done the Strait of Hormuz without its permission, prompting different escalation with Washington.

But the Iranian tanker strikes past week look to person raised tensions to caller heights.

US attacks connected Iran since past person deed astatine slightest 10 provinces, sidesplitting a soldier, respective fishermen successful the confederate state of Hormozgan, and a firefighter successful Sistan and Baluchestan, according to Iranian authorities.

A railway span connected a commercialized corridor linking Iran with Central Asia and China was besides struck, on with a span adjacent Mashhad utilized by mourners travelling to erstwhile Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral.

The renewed hostilities person besides pulled Qatar, a chap mediator alongside Pakistan, much straight into the conflict. On Sunday, Iranian missiles and drones deed the Gulf state, with debris from interceptions injuring 3 people, including a child, according to Qatar’s Ministry of Interior.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused Washington of violating “nearly each parts” of the June statement wrong 25 days of its signing, citing attacks connected transport infrastructure and sportfishing vessels.

Baghaei said connected Monday that Iran had “acted successful bully faith” throughout, but that “each clip the different enactment has failed to conscionable its obligations, we did not uphold ours, and we volition proceed to enactment successful this manner.”

Since the warfare began connected February 28, Islamabad has played the relation of mediator.

It hosted talks in April, the archetypal clip successful 4 decades that US and Iranian officials sat successful a country together.

Its service main and interior curate person travelled to Tehran respective times. In precocious March, Pakistan besides helped unafraid a Chinese-backed bid framework alongside its ain diplomatic efforts.

In June, it helped nutrient the MoU signed by Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump, on with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, which was past discussed astatine the Burgenstock summit successful Switzerland.

Yet analysts accidental Pakistan lacks the means to enforce the agreements it helps broker.

Javad Heiran-Nia, manager of the Persian Gulf Studies Group astatine the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies successful Tehran, said the MoU was ne'er intended to resoluteness the underlying dispute.

“The MoU deferred cardinal and substantive issues to aboriginal negotiations and functioned chiefly arsenic a tactical instrumentality to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to planetary shipping,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Iran, helium said, sees power of the waterway arsenic “a strategical asset; not simply a coercive lever, but a deterrent tool”, and appears “prepared to judge the hazard of warfare to sphere this strategical advantage”.

Mediators, helium added, deficiency the instruments to resoluteness the quality “unless a displacement successful the equilibrium of powerfulness betwixt Iran and the United States emerges arsenic a effect of constricted subject engagements”, pointing to a imaginable US naval blockade arsenic 1 of the fewer developments that could change the strategical calculus.

Dania Thafer, enforcement manager of the Gulf International Forum successful Doha, said Pakistan’s country for manoeuvre had narrowed arsenic some sides hardened their positions implicit the strait.

“Pakistan is successful a concern wherever it is highly babelike connected some parties, arsenic it ever has been, but close now, Iran is bent connected establishing its power implicit the Strait of Hormuz,” she told Al Jazeera.

According to Thafer, determination is small Pakistan tin bash to de-escalate portion some Washington and Tehran stay successful “an escalatory phase”.

“Once they consciousness they person reached a constituent wherever the equilibrium tips successful favour of 1 broadside oregon the other, past possibly they volition instrumentality to the negotiating table,” she added.

But Qamar Cheema, caput of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute, pushed backmost connected the thought that Pakistan is operating without existent tools.

He pointed to US Vice President JD Vance’s caller remarks, wherever helium credited Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir’s relation successful the process, arsenic grounds that Islamabad’s military-diplomatic transmission carries existent value successful Washington.

Access itself, helium argued, is the instrument.

“Pakistan enjoys trust, and that’s wherefore some sides prime up the telephone and telephone Pakistani enactment immoderate clip to region a stumbling block,” Cheema told Al Jazeera.

Crowded diplomacy, narrowing options

But Pakistan has not been the lone diplomatic channel, and according to Heiran-Nia, the quality implicit the strait was ne'er truly Islamabad’s to mediate.

“Iran had antecedently removed the Strait of Hormuz contented from Pakistan’s mediation agenda, arsenic the substance was fundamentally bilateral betwixt Tehran and Muscat,” helium said.

Tehran, helium explained, did not privation the contented to beryllium “defined wrong a broader dialog bundle nether Pakistani auspices, which would person afforded Washington country for governmental manoeuvre”.

Direct Iran-Oman talks followed, but “US subject unit and economical sanctions threats against Oman person placed Muscat nether sizeable strain, preventing meaningful progress,” according to the Tehran-based analyst.

Meanwhile, helium cautioned that Sunday’s attacks connected Qatar “could person adverse effects connected Qatar’s mediatory role”, though Doha “does not presently look inclined to withdraw”, adding that “Iran should not presume that Doha’s patience is limitless.”

Mustafa Hyder Sayed, enforcement manager of the Pakistan-China Institute successful Islamabad, described the GCC states arsenic caught successful an uncomfortable position.

“The GCC countries are caught betwixt the devil and the heavy bluish sea. They privation a functional narration with Iran portion not openly declining the usage of their bases and territory by the United States, due to the fact that they recognize they cannot take their neighbours,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, Israel, which is not a enactment to the MoU, has continued subject operations successful Lebanon, which Tehran cites arsenic an ongoing usurpation of the agreement.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said connected Saturday that confederate Lebanon “would go Gaza”, raising the imaginable of further determination escalation.

Who blinks first?

Despite a week of escalating attacks, the halfway quality remains unchanged.

Pakistani service main Field Marshal Asim Munir meets the president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, successful Rawalpindi, Pakistan, June 23, 2026 [Handout/Inter-Services Public Relations via Reuters]

Washington and Tehran stay divided implicit the aforesaid contented that stalled negotiations adjacent earlier the latest circular of fighting: Who controls transition done the Strait of Hormuz, and nether what conditions?

Iran insists the MoU gave it authorization implicit transit done the waterway. The US disputes that.

On Monday, Trump announced that the US was reinstating a naval blockade of Iranian ships and would complaint a 20 percent tariff connected each different ships trying to walk done the strait.

Yet, earlier, a imaginable compromise had concisely emerged.

Heiran-Nia said the parties explored a look nether which commercialized vessels would coordinate transition with some Iran and a designated Arab Gulf state, allowing “both parties [to] assertion a grade of victory”.

The talks stalled earlier reaching a conclusion, however, interrupted by the funeral of Iran’s erstwhile Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed connected the archetypal time of the warfare successful associated US-Israeli aerial strikes.

The struggle has since moved successful the other direction, with subject enactment aimed astatine shifting the equilibrium of powerfulness alternatively than reviving negotiations.

“The prevailing trajectory present is the continuation of subject strikes successful an effort to displacement the equilibrium of power. Yet, determination remains a hazard that strategical calculations connected either broadside could spiral beyond control,” Heiran-Nia said.

Thafer believes that, contempt the violence, neither broadside has formally abandoned the MoU.

“Iran is framing this existent circular of escalation arsenic a usurpation of the MoU alternatively than a crushed to exit it, which means determination could inactive beryllium airy astatine the extremity of the tunnel,” she said.

In her assessment, some sides carnivore work for violating the agreement, from Iran’s attacks connected shipping to Washington’s revocation of Iran’s lipid merchantability licence and the subject attacks. Yet the statement remains, astatine slightest formally, successful place.

Its future, she said, depends connected which broadside yet gives crushed implicit the strait. Iran retains what Thafer described arsenic a “snapback capability” to disrupt shipping whenever it chooses.

“It is, militarily, precise hard to afloat neutralise that Iranian capability. We volition person to hold and spot wherever the leverage yet sits,” she said.

Cheema, for his part, argued that Iran’s ain conduct, much than immoderate mediator’s diplomacy, is what volition determine however this settles.

“Iranian authorities look ambitious and aggressive, and are looking to instrumentality risks to task power, which makes it little apt that immoderate statement volition scope a last conclusion. That means interventions from mediators volition support coming.”