Will Iran build a nuclear bomb while Trump is in power in the US?

Tehran, Iran – Donald Trump’s 2nd word arsenic president of the United States promises Iran a rocky roadworthy that could pb to antithetic outcomes erstwhile it comes to its relations with the West, analysts say.

US leaders, on with Israelis, person been openly discussing subject strikes connected apical Iranian atomic facilities and captious infrastructure similar powerfulness plants and lipid and petrochemical facilities.

Iran’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stay defiant, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) person held large-scale subject exercises, predominantly focusing connected defending delicate sites.

A shift, but to where?

For much than 2 decades, Iran’s narration with the West has mostly been defined by developments successful the country’s atomic programme and efforts to halt it from getting a bomb. Tehran has consistently maintained that it does not question a limb of wide destruction.

Recently, apical governmental and subject authorities successful Iran person been discussing the anticipation of shifting Tehran’s officially stated policy of not pursuing a atomic limb amid rising information threats.

There look to beryllium 2 schools of thought successful Tehran: 1 appears unfastened to the anticipation of engaging the US, including connected the atomic programme, and different is vocal astir pursuing a weapon, particularly fixed the erosion of deterrence against Israel and setbacks to its determination allies, Naysan Rafati, elder Iran expert astatine the Washington-based Crisis Group, pointed out.

“But if the erstwhile campy prevails, it volition inactive necessitate willingness successful Washington to prosecute Tehran – and fixed the Islamic republic’s vulnerabilities, determination volition apt beryllium immoderate inclination to property the authorities harder alternatively than entertain concessions to it.”

Iran has mislaid 1 of the tenets of its guardant defence strategy with the autumn of Bashar al-Assad successful Syria and the blows dealt to its “axis of resistance” crossed the region.

The state is besides labouring nether extended sanctions that are negatively affecting its already embattled economy, plummeting nationalist currency and precocious inflation, along with an vigor crisis.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, right, shakes hands with International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi earlier a gathering successful Tehran connected November 14, 2024 [Atta Kenare/AFP]

Amid dire economical conditions, the authorities of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, which is expected to nonstop its diplomats to Europe aboriginal this period for talks with the E3 – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – looks similar it wants to further prosecute with the West.

The wide model being discussed appears akin to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Iran’s atomic woody with satellite powers successful 2015 – lifting immoderate economical unit connected Iran successful speech for curbs connected its atomic programme.

But nary caller model has taken signifier yet, and immoderate talks truthful acold look to person been consultations aimed astatine clarifying viewpoints.

Appetite for a caller agreement

Things are antithetic this time, compared with erstwhile Iran and the West negotiated for years successful the leadup to the atomic deal.

In 2018, Trump reneged connected the JCPOA and imposed harsh sanctions against Iran. He besides ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s apical wide and a main designer of its determination axis, 5 years ago.

“Unlike the archetypal Trump administration, the Europeans are going to beryllium overmuch much aligned to immoderate argumentation the US chooses due to the fact that the Europeans person successful immoderate ways endorsed the maximum unit run themselves successful caller years due to the fact that of the increasing tensions they person with Tehran,” Ellie Geranmayeh, lawman caput of the Middle East and North Africa programme astatine the European Council connected Foreign Relations said.

This twelvemonth should spot large developments that volition amended clarify the absorption of Iran’s atomic programme, Abas Aslani, elder probe chap astatine the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera.

Several of the JCPOA’s clauses person expired, Aslani said, truthful determination is an accrued willingness to negociate a caller knowing – particularly since a main sunset clause of the JCPOA, which allows the West to reinstate immoderate lifted United Nations sanctions connected Iran (the snapback), volition expire successful October 2025.

Geranmayeh said the E3 is keeping snapback arsenic the past instrumentality they person to leverage Iran and they are alert that erstwhile it is used, it tin acceptable disconnected a “very unpredictable concatenation of escalatory events”.

Iran’s atomic tract successful Isfahan, Iran, connected April 4, 2024 [Planet Labs PBC via AP]

As such, Europe volition beryllium spending the clip near until October to forestall escalation and propulsion for diplomacy.

However, determination remains a large question people implicit however Europeans respond if Trump demands an contiguous snapback of sanctions connected Iran by the E3 successful speech for tradeoffs connected transatlantic issues dealing with European security, the adept said.

“We volition either determination toward importantly higher tensions oregon immoderate benignant of, albeit limited, statement implicit the atomic programme, depending connected whether Iran and the US tin scope immoderate benignant of understanding,” Aslani said.

There is besides a anticipation Tehran and Washington whitethorn beryllium down for nonstop negotiations, thing Iran has refused to bash owed to the US’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA.

“If the Trump medication tries to propulsion excessively hard to get concessions, past it’s going to beryllium exceedingly hard to scope an statement adjacent if there’s a broader understanding,” helium said.

Iran’s atomic programme

The latest accusation indicates Iran has not started gathering a weaponry yet.

However, a twelvemonth aft Trump near the JCPOA, it began expanding its level of enrichment and fig of centrifuges, repeating the process after Israeli attacks connected its atomic facilities and planetary censure.

In caller months, it has installed thousands of caller centrifuges in absorption to the passing of different Western-introduced censure solution against it astatine the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board.

It is present enriching uranium up to 60 percent, a comparatively abbreviated method measurement distant from the much than 90 percent required for a bomb, with the IAEA reporting Tehran has capable fissile worldly for aggregate bombs.

The accrued atomic enactment gives Iran immoderate leverage erstwhile it comes to talking to Trump, but it besides comes with sizeable risks, said the Crisis Group’s Rafati.

“Tehran is enriching astatine adjacent weapons-grade and with virtually zero breakout time, which blurs the enactment betwixt a concern that is concerning and alarming capable for the US and/or Israel to see subject action,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visits the centrifuges successful Tehran, Iran, connected June 11, 2023 [Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA via Reuters]

Nuclear breakout clip is the clip required to nutrient capable fissile worldly for a bomb. If it decides to spell for a bomb, Iran would person to plan and assemble a weapon, integrate it with a long-range rocket susceptible of carrying a atomic warhead, and successfully trial it.

We are successful a short-term holding signifier arsenic the “big elephant successful the room” of Trump taking powerfulness is days distant and determination is inactive nary wide thought however his medication plans to signifier its ties with Iran, according to elder expert Geranmayeh.

“I deliberation successful the archetypal fewer weeks of 2025, Iran is improbable to importantly escalate its atomic activities unless President Trump aggressively doubles down connected the maximum unit campaign,” Geranmayeh told Al Jazeera.

She added that Iranian atomic enactment whitethorn somewhat chill if the US prioritises diplomatic talks aimed astatine de-escalation, meaning 2 precise antithetic scenarios could unfold up depending connected wherever Trump positions himself.