Will Ethiopia’s neighbours intervene as Tigray war escalates?

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – After astir 2 weeks of fierce fighting, Ethiopian national forces entered the Tigrayan superior of Mekelle arsenic forces from an confederation of rebel groups, including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), withdrew from the city.

The warring that erupted precocious past period has efficaciously ended the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire and the fragile bid that followed the devastating Tigray war.

But Mekelle’s seizure whitethorn people the extremity of accepted warfare alternatively than the extremity of the conflict. Fighting has continued elsewhere successful Tigray, portion reports of Eritrean troops entering bluish Tigrayan towns person added a perchance much unsafe determination dimension.

Ethiopian national forces utilized aerial powerfulness and crushed forces to beforehand crossed Tigray. After suffering successive defeats astir the towns of Alamata and Kobo, rebel forces withdrew into the surrounding countryside. They person pledged to proceed fighting.

“We volition face the force connected our presumption and wherever we choose,” TPLF person Debretsion Gebremichael said.

A warfare that whitethorn not beryllium over

There are echoes of the warfare that began successful 2020, erstwhile Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s authorities declared triumph aft national forces captured Mekelle. Tigrayan forces subsequently regrouped successful the mountains, retook overmuch of the portion and recaptured the capital, prolonging the warfare for astir a twelvemonth and a half.

The renewed struggle could travel a akin trajectory, peculiarly if the TPLF and different equipped groups win successful turning the mountainous terrain into a prolonged equipped rebellion. Ethiopia is already warring insurgencies successful Amhara and Oromia, raising the imaginable of its national forces being stretched crossed aggregate fronts.

But the battlefield reversals suffered by the rebels could person implications good beyond Tigray. They person raised interest successful Egypt and among different Ethiopian rivals, according to Hossamaldeen Ibrahim, an African expert astatine the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute.

“Egypt views the Renaissance Dam, and immoderate Ethiopian [army] determination towards the Red Sea, arsenic a strategical threat, truthful it has allied with Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia against immoderate Ethiopian unilateralism,” Ibrahim told Al Jazeera.

“Ethiopia is seeking a oversea outlet; Eritrea sees this arsenic an existential threat.”

Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions

Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea won its warfare of independency successful 1991, leaving Addis Ababa heavy babelike connected neighbouring countries for entree to planetary trade.

Abiy has progressively made entree to the Red Sea a strategical precedence since 2023, raising concerns successful Eritrea implicit Ethiopia’s ambitions, peculiarly implicit the larboard of Assab.

Ethiopia presently relies heavy connected Djibouti for maritime trade, portion besides pursuing alternate arrangements, including done Kenya and Somaliland.

After being sworn successful connected Monday for different five-year word pursuing his party’s triumph successful the June 1 election, Abiy again enactment the contented astatine the centre of his parliamentary address.

“Based connected the rule of springiness and take, we volition enactment diligently to guarantee that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea,” helium told parliament.

The contented has progressively go portion of a wider determination contest.

A escaped determination alignment

In caller months, Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia person recovered themselves sharing concerns implicit Ethiopia’s determination ambitions. On October 4, the leaders of the 4 countries met for a quadrilateral consultative acme successful New Alamein, Egypt, wherever they discussed determination issues and pledged to fortify political, economical and commercialized practice arsenic good arsenic consultation and coordination.

The gathering does not magnitude to a ceremonial subject alliance, and the 4 countries person antithetic interests successful their dealings with Addis Ababa. The summit’s associated declaration besides called for respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, noninterference successful interior affairs and the peaceful solution of disputes.

But their concerns progressively overlap astir Ethiopia’s ambitions successful the Red Sea, the Nile and the wider Horn of Africa.

Relations betwixt Ethiopia and Eritrea person besides deteriorated sharply since the Pretoria ceasefire. Ethiopia closed its embassy successful Eritrea and expelled Eritrean diplomats connected October 1, accusing Asmara of hostile acts and engagement successful the renewed fighting. Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic ties, portion denying that it supported the absorption alliance. Egypt and Sudan person besides denied Ethiopian accusations that they are backing the alliance.

The Ethiopian army’s beforehand into Tigray has added different furniture to that rivalry.

“The [Ethiopian army’s] beforehand successful Tigray straight threatens [Eritrean President] Isaias [Afwerki] and the Eritrean state,” said Etana H Dinka, an adjunct prof of African past astatine the University of Miami.

Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian troops during the 2020–22 Tigray war, but relations betwixt Abiy and Isaias person since deteriorated. Eritrean troops person reportedly been seen successful towns successful bluish Tigray, adding a perchance important caller magnitude to the conflict. The Associated Press quality bureau reported Eritrean troops entering Adigrat and Idaga Hamus aft crossing into Ethiopia, portion Eritrea has neither confirmed nor denied the unit movements.

Eritrea’s relation could beryllium decisive

For Eritrea, the determination of the warring matters arsenic overmuch arsenic its outcome.

A prolonged struggle successful Tigray could support Ethiopian forces tied down and bounds Addis Ababa’s quality to prosecute its Red Sea ambitions. But a decisive Ethiopian triumph could permission the national authorities with greater state to crook its attraction towards determination rivals.

“With reports that Eritrean troops are moving into Tigray, Eritrea seems keen connected boosting TPLF forces withdrawing northwards, truthful that the engagement betwixt Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers takes spot successful Tigrayan territory, and not successful Eritrea,” said Mohamed Kheir Omer, a researcher focused connected the Horn of Africa.

That could make an inducement for Eritrea to enactment forces susceptible of keeping the Ethiopian service tied down, without needfully entering a nonstop confrontation of its own.

Sudan adds different layer

Sudan’s warfare adds different magnitude to the determination rivalry.

Egypt has provided governmental backing and logistical and method enactment to Sudan’s army, according to the Reuters quality agency, portion the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) person been accused of atrocities successful Darfur.

Ethiopia has faced accusations of facilitating enactment for the RSF. A Reuters probe reported successful February that Ethiopia was hosting a campy successful its occidental Benishangul-Gumuz portion wherever thousands of fighters linked to the RSF were being trained. Reuters cited 8 sources, including a elder Ethiopian authorities official, who said the United Arab Emirates financed the camp’s operation and provided subject trainers and logistical support. The UAE denied the allegations, and Reuters said it could not independently verify the UAE’s role.

Those competing relationships are portion of a broader contention implicit the Nile, Sudan, the Red Sea and entree to commercialized routes.

For Egypt, its quality with Ethiopia implicit the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam remains a large strategical concern. For Eritrea, Ethiopia’s hunt for a Red Sea outlet is viewed done the lens of nationalist security. For Sudan’s neighbours, the struggle threatens to reshape determination powerfulness balances.

Will Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia intervene?

The shared interests of Ethiopia’s determination rivals bash not needfully construe into nonstop intervention.

Egypt has its ain calculations implicit the Nile and Sudan. Eritrea has a nonstop information involvement successful developments successful Tigray. Somalia is dealing with its ain information challenges and a analyzable narration with Addis Ababa. Sudan remains consumed by its devastating civilian war.

At the aforesaid time, Ethiopia’s national forces present look the anticipation of warring connected respective fronts.

The TPLF, Amhara Fano and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) person each sought to situation the national authorities successful antithetic parts of the country. If they tin support unit connected the service portion retreating from large colonisation centres, the autumn of Mekelle could beryllium to beryllium lone the archetypal signifier of a overmuch longer conflict.

For Ethiopia’s rivals, the question is whether to exploit that vulnerability oregon debar being drawn into different determination war.

The grade of immoderate determination engagement whitethorn yet beryllium connected whether the TPLF tin support national forces tied down successful Tigray, and distant from the Eritrean border.

“It isn’t hard to recognize Cairo’s committedness to forestall Ethiopia from succeeding successful the existent warfare, immoderate its army’s intended goals, including Abiy’s acclaimed entree to the Red Sea, are,” University of Miami’s Dinka said.

The question present is whether those determination calculations volition stay mostly diplomatic oregon spill into the battlefield.