Why Mali’s northern conflict has entered a dangerous new phase

Bamako, Mali – An unprecedented battlefield concern betwixt a separatist question and an al-Qaeda affiliate has transformed the struggle successful bluish Mali, shifting the subject equilibrium and deepening divisions implicit how, if astatine all, the warfare tin end.

When the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) launched a associated violative connected April 25, 2026, the struggle entered a signifier dissimilar immoderate before.

A warfare that had agelong pitted the Malian authorities against aggregate equipped groups gave mode to a coordinated run stretching from Kidal and Anefis to Tilemsi, Gao and Sevare, posing the astir superior situation to the Malian service successful years and to Russia’s Africa Corps, the Kremlin-backed unit that replaced the Wagner Group successful Mali.

Since then, the warring has been marked by simultaneous assaults, ambushes, drone strikes and attacks connected subject convoys, with each sides claiming important battlefield gains.

Bamako says it is moving to reconstruct authorities authorization and dismantle what it calls a “terrorist alliance” betwixt the FLA and JNIM.

The FLA says it remains committed to independency for Azawad, the sanction separatists usage for bluish Mali, portion JNIM portrays the warfare arsenic portion of a run to “liberate” Mali and overthrow the government, which it accuses of relying connected Russian forces.

More important than the violative itself, however, is the unprecedented subject practice betwixt a nationalist separatist question and an al-Qaeda affiliate.

Their governmental ambitions stay fundamentally different, yet their practice has already reshaped the struggle and could person far-reaching implications for information crossed the Sahel.

The concern emerged aft the illness of the 2015 Algiers Peace Agreement, which sought to extremity years of warring betwixt Bamako and bluish equipped groups done greater decentralisation and governmental representation, but whose implementation repeatedly faltered.

Successive subject coups aft 2020 reshaped Mali’s governmental enactment and information strategy. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) suspended Mali and imposed sanctions, portion Russia deepened its subject relation by deploying the Wagner Group successful precocious 2021.

After Russia folded the Wagner Group’s operations into the state-controlled Africa Corps, renewed warring near neither the authorities nor bluish equipped groups capable to enforce a lasting settlement.

How the confederation took shape

On paper, practice betwixt the FLA and JNIM appears unlikely. The FLA traces its roots to bluish separatist movements that declared the independency of Azawad during the 2012 rebellion, a assertion ne'er recognised by the Malian authorities oregon the planetary community.

Colonel Mohamed Issa, centre, 1 of the FLA’s astir salient subject commanders [Photo: Courtesy of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA)]

It presents itself arsenic a secular nationalist question seeking independency for Azawad, portion JNIM seeks to overthrow governments it considers illegitimate and found governance based connected its mentation of Islamic law.

Yet elder officials from some groups told Al Jazeera those ideological differences person been acceptable speech to face a communal enemy.

Colonel Mohamed Issa, a elder FLA officer, said the question remained committed to an autarkic Azawad, arguing that erstwhile bid agreements repeatedly collapsed due to the fact that successive governments successful Bamako failed to honour them.

Negotiations, helium said, would lone beryllium acceptable if they recognised Azawad’s close to separate.

Issa rejected suggestions of an ideological alliance, describing the narration arsenic a battlefield statement against a communal enemy.

He said the JNIM-affiliated fighters operating alongside the FLA were exclusively Azawadis alternatively than members of the group’s wider determination network, arguing they were motivated chiefly by defending their communities against the Malian service and what helium described arsenic Russian “mercenaries”.

Suleiman, a elder JNIM tract commandant who requested that lone his archetypal sanction beryllium utilized for information reasons, described the narration successful broader terms.

He said the radical approved operational coordination with the FLA aft interior consultations due to the fact that fighters connected some sides mostly came from “one people” caught up successful the aforesaid struggle and due to the fact that their liberation goals had go “relatively unified”.

He besides claimed the FLA had accepted Islamic ineligible arbitration by section spiritual scholars, 1 of JNIM’s halfway objectives, a constituent the FLA itself did not raise. Bamako, meanwhile, has described the narration arsenic a “JNIM/FLA violent alliance” that threatens Mali’s sovereignty.

The differing accounts exemplify some the spot and the fragility of the arrangement. For now, shared battlefield interests look to outweigh ideological differences. Whether that remains existent arsenic the struggle evolves is acold little certain.

A shifting equilibrium of power

The concern has altered not lone the battlefield but the mode the warfare is fought.

FLA officials accidental moving alongside JNIM has enabled some groups to disagreement responsibilities and excavation expertise successful attacks connected subject bases and proviso convoys.

A destroyed conveyance astatine the tract of caller warring successful bluish Mali [Photo: Courtesy of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA)]

Bamako disputes casualty figures released by the equipped groups and insists its forces clasp the initiative. Even so, the struggle has go markedly much sophisticated, with simultaneous attacks crossed distant locations, engagements lasting respective days and ambushes targeting reinforcements earlier they scope the beforehand lines.

Drones person assumed an progressively salient role, serving not lone arsenic reconnaissance platforms but progressively arsenic onslaught weapons against vehicles and subject positions. Malian forces, backed by Russia’s Africa Corps, proceed to trust heavy connected aerial power, yet months of sustained warring suggest neither broadside has secured a decisive advantage.

The warfare economy

Long-established financing and trafficking networks proceed to prolong some sides.

JNIM sources picture a backing exemplary built connected determination commercialized networks, organised zakat collections and resources accumulated implicit years, including proceeds linked to earlier al-Qaeda kidnapping-for-ransom operations.

The FLA says it relies chiefly connected donations organised by tribal leaders, traders and assemblage associations.

Officials from some groups besides acknowledged that individuals linked to the movements enactment successful illicit economies, including trafficking crossed the Sahara, though the grade to which those activities concern the warfare remains hard to verify.

Weapons person proved arsenic important arsenic funding. Arms person flowed crossed the Sahel since the illness of Libya successful 2011, providing equipped groups with a dependable root of equipment.

The latest warring has opened different proviso channel: weapons and subject vehicles captured from Malian forces present signifier an progressively important portion of some groups’ arsenals.

Can either broadside win?

There is small to suggest the struggle is nearing an end.

The Malian service retains a wide vantage successful aerial power, backed by Russia’s Africa Corps. Yet the FLA and JNIM proceed to equine coordinated operations crossed overmuch of bluish Mali.

An equipped antheral carries a limb successful a godforsaken country of bluish Mali, wherever authorities forces and equipped groups person been warring for power of territory [Photo: Courtesy of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA)]

The subject standoff reflects a wider governmental deadlock. Bamako remains committed to preserving Mali’s territorial integrity, the FLA insists connected independency for Azawad and JNIM continues to question the overthrow of the government.

None has shifted presumption since the latest warring began, and thing connected the battlefield has yet forced immoderate of them to bash so.

Those competing objectives besides formed uncertainty connected however agelong the 2 groups tin proceed warring together. Their concern rests connected a communal force alternatively than a shared governmental vision, making its aboriginal uncertain.

A warfare without an endgame

Three months into the latest offensive, bluish Mali remains locked successful a struggle with nary evident extremity successful sight. The concern betwixt the FLA and JNIM has reshaped the subject landscape, portion Bamako continues to cull immoderate result that could weaken Mali’s territorial integrity.

What began arsenic a confrontation betwixt the authorities and abstracted equipped movements has evolved into a struggle shaped by competing visions of sovereignty, separatism, regularisation by al-Qaeda-linked equipped groups and the engagement of outer powers.

Unless those competing ambitions – territorial unity, independency and authorities alteration – are addressed alongside the fighting, a negotiated colony is apt to stay elusive.

Whatever happens next, the concern forged successful April 2026 has already changed the people of the warfare successful bluish Mali. Whether it endures oregon fractures nether the value of its competing ambitions, it has created a caller subject and governmental world whose consequences are apt to widen good beyond Mali’s borders.