Why Liverpool’s large gap at top of league isn’t a sure thing to win title

Published Dec 27, 2024  •  5 minute read

Matz Sels of Nottingham Forest celebrates during the Premier League match between Nottingham Forest FC and Tottenham Hotspur FC at City Ground on December 26, 2024 in Nottingham, England. Photo by Clive Mason /Getty Images

The English Premier League continues to offer gifts we didn’t expect. Some supporters are thrilled with what they got while others can’t wait to return their presents.

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For starters, Liverpool appear to be running away with things. They sit seven points clear of second-place Chelsea with a game in hand. The other clubs you’d put in the conversation all have issues, but let’s examine some reasons why it’s premature to be readying the red and white ribbons for the Premier League trophy at this point.

The disruptors. For the past seven-plus seasons the Premier League has been somewhat predictable. Manchester City are the team everyone knows are going to either be leading or in the top two at this point, Liverpool and/or Arsenal are chasing, pick one of Spurs, Manchester United, Chelsea to be in the Top Four mix, and then we’ve had those fringe teams, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Brighton, West Ham, Leicester, this year Nottingham Forest who put a string of results together and are in the mix for those Champions League spots.

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As mentioned, Forest are one of the year’s best stories, sitting in third place, they’ve won four in a row, are the only team to beat Liverpool this year in any competition and have only lost four games all season.

But it’s not just Forest. While Brighton, Villa and Newcastle have all dropped off the consistent pace they’ve set in past seasons, they’ve shown they are capable of beating anyone. But you can also add Bournemouth, who haven’t lost in six games, have only two losses in their last 11 and sit in sixth place. And what about Fulham? They drew at Anfield, won at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea and drew with Arsenal. The roller coaster nature of the league is Fulham also lost to Wolves and drew with Southampton in this stretch. Anyone is capable of beating anyone, and if a couple of injuries hit, it’s possible to go on a prolonged skid for any team, even Liverpool.

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And yes, winning their game in hand would stretch Liverpool’s lead to 10 points, but the game in hand to be made up is against bitter rival Everton. And though Everton sit in 15th and have scored the third-fewest goals in the entire league, their last three matches have been draws with Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Anyone is capable of taking points off anyone. The irony is Everton have helped put their city brethren in pole position. If you don’t really know how heated that rivalry is, sporting good shops in Liverpool have stocked up on teams who play the Reds in big matches, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, if Liverpool are in a final, you can expect Everton fans to passionately adopt the team who’s playing Liverpool, so getting those draws against those title rivals has honestly been bittersweet for many Blues.

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Liverpool have to go to Chelsea and go to City, whom you have to assume will get their act together at some point, especially as it seems like they’re going to go out and spend a lot of money on new players this January. And Arsenal will come to Anfield. Would it be out of the realm of possibility to see Liverpool lose at Chelsea, at City and maybe draw with Arsenal at home and drop points at Everton? That’s 10+ points dropped right there. These leads can dissolve quickly.

The salvation for Liverpool might be that if they do drop points that’s assuming those chasing them are perfect. And as Chelsea have shown this season, losing to Fulham on the heels of their draw with Everton, the topsy-turvy nature of this league means the team that finds the most consistency in the second half of the season will likely end up as champions.

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And that could include Manchester City. Depending on what they do in the transfer market, they’ve shown they’re capable of going on a long winning streak even though they look lost in the woods right now.

The distractions. There’s an elephant in the room. Three of them in fact. Due to ownership negligence, uncertainty over the manager and scumbaggery by Real Madrid, three of Liverpool’s most important players are out of contract at the end of the season. Virgil Van Dijk, Mo Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold are all able to go and sign a contract with anyone for free at the end of the season. The way the contracts work in Europe can add some peril now. While English teams could pitch to any of these players after the season in May, the players can sign a pre-agreement with any other European club as of January 1. Real Madrid have been letting every journalist in Spain know they’ll take all the money they would have spent on a transfer fee and give it to Alexander-Arnold in salary so he an join his pal Jude Bellingham next season. Salah and Van Dijk are also free to do so, but they seem more likely to re-sign, the reservation on Liverpool’s model of not extending players over 30. Salah is 32 Van Dijk is 33. But both are in astonishing shape and in the conversation for best in the world at their positions. They both seemingly want to stay.

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As the door gets opened though, how would the squad react to one of them committing to another club for next year while in the midst of a title run? Liverpool need to sort this out as soon as possible or it could undo their season.

The demands. While the Premier League is the first prize, the Champions League is 1 b. Liverpool’s European pedigree is special with the fans. They’ve won six European titles, the next closest English team, Manchester United, has just three. Holding the title of Champions of Europe is special, and in this revamped format, Liverpool are the only team who have won all of their games so far, including resounding wins over German Champions Bayer Leverkusen and last season Champions League and Spanish Champions Real Madrid. Once those games get to the knockout stages, it places massive demands on a club trying to compete on two fronts. And should Liverpool get knocked out early, the hangover effect on the league form has been seen time and again.

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Liverpool are also in the semi-final of the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup is still to begin. When you’re chasing success in multiple competitions, it’s easy to lose focus in any of them and that’s a potential trip wire for this squad.

So while it’s not all set in stone yet and there are plenty of pitfalls for Liverpool, you’d much rather have a seven point point cushion than any other alternative.

Sunday: Leicester City v. Manchester City; Crystal Palace v. Southampton; Everton v. Nottingham Forest; Fulham v. Bournemouth; Tottenham v. Wolves; West Ham v. Liverpool; Aston Villa v. Brighton; Chelsea v. Ipswich; Manchester United v. Newcastle.
Wednesday: Brentford v. Arsenal.

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