Why is Trump threatening to strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain again, now?

United States President Donald Trump says Washington whitethorn onslaught Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain “very soon”, successful conscionable the latest successful a bid of threats helium has made against the heavy fortified underground tract located adjacent to the bombed-out Natanz enrichment complex.

Just hours aft helium made that threat, an Iranian lipid tanker disconnected Kharg Island was struck by 4 US missiles, according to Iranian quality outlet Khabar Fouri. Kharg Island is the main hub for Iran’s lipid exports, handling astir 90 percent.

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Trump made the menace against Pickaxe Mountain arsenic helium was speaking to reporters successful the Oval Office connected Friday, saying the US knows “everybody that’s moving astatine Pickaxe” and crossed Iran.

His remarks echoed a akin menace helium made backmost successful mid-July, erstwhile helium stated connected the Hugh Hewitt Show: “We’re going to instrumentality retired Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to beryllium acceptable … We’ll astir apt springiness Pickaxe a changeable comparatively soon.”

The latest menace comes much than six months into the warfare that the US and Israel launched connected Iran connected February 28, amid mixed messages astir the warfare from the Trump administration.

On Friday, Trump sought to downplay the warfare successful Iran, calling it “small potatoes”, portion a time earlier, astatine a White House quality briefing, Vice President JD Vance appeared to suggest the struggle had cooled and to motion disconnected an alleged US onslaught connected a wedding successful confederate Iran with “sometimes things happen“.

At a White House briefing this week, Vance said of the struggle with Iran that helium “wouldn’t telephone it a war” and claimed determination was “no progressive shooting close now”.

But the US and Iran person exchanged attacks this week, including a US deed adjacent to Iran’s lipid infrastructure connected Kharg Island.

Meanwhile, talks related to Iran’s atomic programme person remained successful limbo since a 60-day negotiating model expired successful mid-August without a deal.

Iran says it is not undertaking immoderate enactment astatine the Natanz atomic site.

Its Khatam al-Anbiya cardinal subject office has warned that bombing the adjacent upland would magnitude to a renewal of warfare crossed the region, astatine a clip erstwhile the Trump medication would similar to support the warfare contained earlier pivotal mid-term elections.

So wherefore has Pickaxe Mountain go the latest absorption of Trump’s threats – again?

A outer presumption shows passageway entrances astatine Pickaxe Mountain, of the Natanz atomic facility, adjacent Natanz, Iran, connected June 30, 2026 [Vantor/Handout via Reuters]

What is Pickaxe Mountain?

Known successful Iran arsenic Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, the tract sits astir 220km (140 miles) southbound of the superior Tehran, successful Isfahan province, and conscionable 2km (1.2 miles) from the Natanz enrichment plant.

US quality reports bespeak that the installation has been excavated heavy wrong the mountain, beneath hundreds of metres of coagulated granite rock, to support it from almighty bombs designed to penetrate bunkers.

The main chambers are thought to prevarication astatine slightest 100 metres (330ft) underground.

Some Western analysts person speculated that the upland was intended to location an undeclared enrichment plant, a hedge against attacks connected Iran’s known facilities.

The Institute for Science and International Security, which tracks the tract by satellite, has assessed that it is inactive nether operation and not yet operational.

However, Iran has ever maintained that it is processing a atomic powerfulness programme only, and does not person plans to physique a atomic weapon.

Why does Pickaxe Mountain matter?

Because it is intact.

Pickaxe Mountain was near unsocial during the US’s June 2025 strikes connected Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan astatine the extremity of the 12-day Israel warfare connected Iran, and has escaped the existent warfare astir entirely; the Institute for Science and International Security has recorded lone the demolition of a conveyance connected a adjacent spoil pile.

With Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing basal and enrichment halls astatine different sites damaged successful the war, analysts spot the tunnels arsenic the astir evident spot for Tehran to rebuild: For constituent production, assembly oregon enrichment of uranium.

The Wall Street Journal reported successful July that Israel had passed Washington quality suggesting thousands of centrifuges had been moved wrong the installation precocious past year, a assertion the US has not confirmed.

Trump has been little alarmist than Israel.

Centrifuges lone substance if determination is uranium to enactment done them; the machines ore uranium gas, and without a proviso of it they cannot nutrient anything.

How overmuch harm has been done to Iran’s atomic sites?

According to astir estimates, a sizeable amount.

The European Council connected Foreign Relations estimates that the 2025 strikes apt destroyed galore of the astir 18,000 centrifuges past operating astatine Iran’s Natanz and Fordow facilities, on with respective centrifuge accumulation sites and Ardakan, Iran’s lone yellowcake milling plant. Yellowcake is powdered uranium ore obtained from milled uranium ore.

Nearly 4,000 further centrifuges were installed but idle astatine the time; however, they whitethorn person survived the strikes.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed further harm to the entranceway buildings of Natanz’s underground enrichment works successful March 2026, though it detected nary further interaction connected the works itself.

The Institute for Science and International Security reported successful June that passageway entrances astatine each 3 main sites stay sealed, that determination is nary grounds of immoderate enrichment taking place, and that the centrifuge programme inactive appears to person been destroyed.

Didn’t Trump accidental Iran’s atomic sites had already been destroyed?

Yes. After the June 2025 attacks, Trump said the 3 sites had been “completely and wholly obliterated”.

However, conscionable days later, a leaked preliminary US Defence Intelligence Agency appraisal concluded that the sites had been importantly damaged but not destroyed, estimating that the strikes had acceptable Iran’s atomic programme backmost by little than six months.

The concern contiguous remains unclear.

Iran is presently believed to beryllium holding astir 440kg (970lb) of uranium enriched to 60 percent. A 90-percent threshold of enriched uranium is needed to nutrient a atomic weapon.

No inspector has entered the bombed sites, and Trump’s framing has shifted from “obliteration” to a committedness to deed immoderate tract wherever Iran is “even reasoning astir nuclear”.

What bash we cognize astir Iran’s atomic programme?

Less than astatine immoderate constituent successful 2 decades.

Just earlier the US-Israel attacks connected Iran successful June 2025, the IAEA verified astir 10 tonnes of enriched uranium successful total, including the 440kg stockpile enriched to 60 percent.

In theory, this magnitude of enriched uranium – should it beryllium enriched to 90 percent – is capable to nutrient much than 10 atomic warheads, IAEA main Rafael Grossi told Al Jazeera successful aboriginal March. It is unclear wherever this banal whitethorn be, however.

Iran suspended practice with the bureau aft the strikes, and the IAEA present says it has nary mode to study connected the size, determination oregon creation of that stockpile, though it believes overmuch of the 60-percent worldly is bottled up successful tunnels astatine Isfahan.

On Friday, Trump claimed again that the US had prevented Iran from processing a atomic weapon, arguing that Washington’s involution had protected Israel and the wider Middle East.

Tehran insists the programme is peaceful, and has dismissed Washington’s absorption connected Pickaxe Mountain arsenic a manufactured pretext for attacking it.