Why is Canada’s PM Carney not ruling out a possible war with the US

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says helium has examined the anticipation of a US subject onslaught against Canada, according to The New York Times.

In an interrogation with the paper connected Wednesday, Carney described an onslaught arsenic an “extreme process risk” – an lawsuit with a precise debased probability but perchance terrible consequences.

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“That’s conscionable hazard management,” said Carney, the erstwhile caput of the Bank of England. “It would beryllium irresponsible not to.”

Experts accidental his comments bash not bespeak that a warfare is apt oregon that Canada is preparing to combat one, but they bash amusement that Carney considers it a distant possibility. Here is what that mightiness mean.

Why are relations betwixt Canada and the US strained?

The main bones of contention are the ongoing commercialized warfare and Trump’s jibes astir Canada becoming a US state.

Trade war

Shortly aft Trump returned to the White House successful 2025, helium imposed a 25 percent tariff connected goods imported from some Canada and Mexico, saying they would not beryllium lifted until some countries took steps to curb the travel of fentanyl, a highly addictive and lethal drug, into the US. The leaders of Mexico and Canada struck a woody pausing the impending tariffs for 30 days, but they were reimposed connected Canada successful aboriginal March aft Trump declared that it had failed to bash enough.

In July 2025, helium threatened to rise that to 35 percent unless Canada backed down connected a integer services tax, which it agreed to do.

Canada, the biggest overseas supplier of alloy and aluminium to the US, was besides severely deed by Trump’s abstracted 25 percent tariffs connected alloy and aluminium, which helium imposed globally in March 2025.

Since past year, commercialized talks person continued but yet collapsed successful August, and some sides person since imposed new, tit-for-tat tariffs. Trump levied 50 percent taxes connected $20bn of Canadian goods, and Canada matched them for US goods.

The occupation for Canada is that its system is intimately tied to that of the US, making a commercialized warfare peculiarly consequential. Some 72 percent of Canada’s $556bn goods exports went to the US successful 2025.

Security threat

Trump has made overmuch of this dependence. “I deliberation Canada would beryllium overmuch amended disconnected being a 51st state,” the US president said successful 2025.

When commercialized talks fell isolated this year, Trump responded to Carney’s announcement by penning connected his level Truth Social: “Canada wants the benefits of being a State, without being one!!!”

Trump besides took the provocative measurement of renaming Lake Ontario – which sits on the borderline of Canada and the US – “Lake America”.

Carney is, therefore, seeking to trim that dependence. His authorities is besides reviewing its planned acquisition of American F-35 combatant jets, portion Carney said that Canada besides intends to trust little connected SpaceX’s Starlink outer net service.

This month, helium has visited the European Union and the United Kingdom successful a bid to grow alliances. The EU has offered associate membership to Canada, portion Canada has applied to articulation the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a European subject coalition.

Ty Solomon, a prof of planetary relations astatine the University of Glasgow, told Al Jazeera determination were “at slightest 2 issues astatine play” erstwhile it came to tensions with the US. The archetypal was “the hostility that President Trump has shown towards Canada”, reflected successful his threats to annex it arsenic the “51st state”, and the tariffs some countries person imposed.

The second, Solomon said, was a changing information scenery that included US threats past twelvemonth to annex Greenland, arsenic good arsenic “ongoing Russian and Chinese involvement and enactment successful the Arctic”. In this “multifaceted geopolitical environment”, helium said, “unexpected events successful 1 country could trigger further unexpected dynamics successful these different areas”.

Therefore, portion US subject enactment is simply a “vanishingly tiny possibility”, Eric Taylor Woods, an subordinate prof of governmental connection astatine the University of Leeds, told Al Jazeera that Canadians are nevertheless unsettled by Trump’s comments and privation to cognize their premier curate is defending the country’s sovereignty.

Carney acceptable retired this caller geopolitical world astatine the World Economic Forum successful January, erstwhile helium urged countries specified arsenic Canada to enactment unneurotic arsenic large powers usage their power much aggressively.

“If we’re not astatine the table, we’re connected the menu,” helium said.

What would hap successful a subject struggle betwixt the US and Canada?

Experts see a US onslaught connected Canada highly improbable – Solomon said a US onslaught connected Canada remained “somewhat unthinkable”.

But, Woods said, if determination was one, “I would not expect Canadians simply to judge the nonaccomplishment of their sovereignty”, contempt the “enormous disparity successful subject capabilities”.

“The US has a vastly larger and much almighty subject than Canada,” Solomon said. “On paper, then, determination would look to beryllium nary contest.”

But, helium said, the prolonged US warfare against Iran had formed uncertainty connected assumptions astir “overwhelming US subject unit and effectiveness”.

Furthermore, Solomon said, if it did happen, it would beryllium “an unmitigated catastrophe for American planetary interests”.

“What remaining spot determination is of the US would evaporate completely, and it would greatly accelerate different democracies’ efforts to forge caller alliances extracurricular of the American information and confederation system,” helium added.

What happens next?

The unease betwixt the 2 is apt to continue.

Carney has said helium is inactive prepared to scope a trading woody with Trump. He told The New York Times that they had spoken “frequently” since commercialized talks collapsed. “We tin prime up the telephone and speech to each different astir issues,” helium said. “He’s direct. I’m direct.”

Woods noted, also, that Trump had truthful acold avoided the “schoolyard idiosyncratic insults and name-calling” helium often directed astatine Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

Solomon said that “privately, I fishy that Carney and his advisers bash not spot the Trump medication overmuch astatine all: Trump is good known to alteration his caput – and American overseas argumentation – precise rapidly and seemingly connected a whim”.

“As a leader, it is precise hard to spot this benignant of behaviour due to the fact that each statement is built upon uncertain foundations.”