Which underdogs have best chance at making waves at FIFA World Cup 2026?

Several countries could defy odds and make long runs at this summer's soccer tournament, including Ecuador, Norway and Turkiye.

Published Jun 09, 2026  •  Last updated 23 minutes ago  •  5 minute read

Ecuador’s John Yeboah (left) and Anthony Valencia celebrate a goal against Saudi Arabia in a game prior to the World Cup. Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

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Every four years at the FIFA World Cup a few teams emerge that capture the hearts and imaginations of soccer fans everywhere.

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This isn’t club football, where some players are only angling for bigger paydays. This tournament is about bringing pride to your homeland, which is what makes it special.

That’s why underdogs and dark horse teams make watching international football what it is. While nations like Spain, France, Brazil and Argentina may have the best odds to win it all and the loudest supporters, it’s much more fun to get behind the teams that aren’t the usual suspects.

Here are a few nations that could provide some nice surprises, to varying degrees.

Norway

It might be hard to believe, but this isn’t just Norway’s first World Cup appearance since 1998, it’s also the Nordic nation’s first major tournament appearance since Euro 2000.

But after missing out on qualification for 12 straight tournaments, the Landslaget should be a force to be reckoned with.

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Led by Erling Haaland – arguably the best goal scorer in the world – and Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard, Norway won all eight games it played in qualifying, including two three-goal wins against Italy.

Haaland, who has won the Premier League’s Golden Boot in three of his four seasons at Manchester City, will be joined up front by Alexander Sorloth, who has scored 33 goals in his two seasons at Atletico Madrid.

Another fun fact about the Lions: They are one of just three teams that has a winning record against Brazil (two wins, two draws) and is the only nation to have never lost to la Selecao.

Morocco

The Atlas Lions were one of everyone’s favourite darkhorse picks ahead of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar and more than lived up to expectations.

After topping a group stacked with Belgium, Croatia and Canada, Morocco beat Spain and Portugal in the knockout phase before finally bowing out to France in the semifinals and finishing fourth.

But while they’re less likely to sneak up on teams this time around, there’s no reason why Morocco can’t go on another long run at the World Cup.

Morocco was crowned champions at the African Cup of Nations earlier this year, though it came in controversial fashion after Senegal was stripped of the title for leaving the field during the final.

At AFCON, the team was led by Real Madrid winger Brahim Diaz, who was born in Spain but switched allegiances to Morocco in 2023.

He should form a dangerous tandem with star fullback Achraf Hakimi down the right side for a team that shouldn’t be as conservative on the pitch this time around.

We should also note that Norway and Morocco met in a pre-tournament friendly on Sunday, with the teams drawing 1-1. That should go to show each side’s quality coming into the World Cup.

Senegal

The Lions of Teranga were on the other end of the controversial decision at AFCON – and actually held on to the trophy, showing it off even after officially being stripped of the title.

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Now, the team’s adamant stance that it is still the champion of Africa should give it some extra motivation at the World Cup.

The attack features a couple of well-known names in Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson, but keep your eye out for Ibrahim Mbaye. The 18-year-old forward who plays for PSG was called up for the tournament and is viewed as a potential future star.

Senegal also boasts a sturdy midfield but might have some fitness issues in defence, with captain Kalidou Koulibaly having been sidelined since suffering a thigh injury during training in April.

Turkiye

The Turks have been considered one of the up and coming soccer nations of Europe for years, but rarely has lived up to the hype.

The Crescent Moons will be playing in their first World Cup since 2002 and will come to North America loaded with talent.

Arda Guler is emerging as a young star at Real Madrid while Kenan Yilnaz and captain Hakan Calhanoglu are coming off huge seasons in Italy’s Serie A. All three should provide plenty of quality on the ball in attack.

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Turkiye also has been drawn into an incredibly favourable group alongside Paraguay, Australia and the U.S. – a group of teams that we very much could see the Crescent Moons coming out on top of.

Ecuador

If you’re looking for a South American team to support that isn’t one of the traditional powerhouses, look no further than Ecuador.

With star defenders Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapie slotted in behind Moises Caicedo, it’s no wonder why La Tri was anchored by incredible defence in qualifying. Ecuador conceded just five goals in 18 games and finished second in South America behind only Argentina.

The attack, however, could be questionable with 36-yeard-old striker Enner Valencia leading the line.

There could be help on the horizon though, with teenage winger Kendry Paez being touted as a potential breakout star at the tournament.

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While Ecuador has made it out of the group stage only once in its World Cup history, we’d bet that this team is ready for a decent run this summer.

Japan

If you’re looking for a team that could be able to put up goals in bunches, these titans of the Asian confederation might be for you – Japan scored a whopping 48 goals through 13 games of qualifying.

Sure, that shocking goal total might’ve been helped by matches against some of the minnow nations in Asia, but Samurai Blue has a history of performing well at the World Cup. In 2022, Japan topped a group that also featured Spain and Germany before losing in the Round of 16 on penalties to Croatia.

The squad does have some injury and fitness concerns heading into the tournament and was forced to leave out talented Brighton attacker Kaoru Mitoma, but the likes of Takefusa Kubo, Ayase Ueda and Daizen Maeda – who scored 14 goals for Celtic this season – should produce up front.

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