Where the race stands with 50 days to go: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down where the polling stands 50 days out from Election Day. Plus, we look at how Donald Trump is dispensing with unity in his response to the apparent second assassination attempt against him.

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Where the 2024 race stands with 50 days to go

By Mark Murray

Just 50 days out from the 2024 presidential election, Democrats are in a stronger place than they’ve been in this entire year because of their switch in candidates, but the contest remains close. 

That’s the main takeaway from the raft of public polling conducted after the (likely only) debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump and before Sunday’s apparent assassination attempt on Trump. 

The latest national survey from ABC News/Ipsos shows Harris ahead 51% to 47% among registered voters (which is within the poll’s margin of error) and up 52% to 46% among likely voters (just outside the margin of error). One to 2% said they support a different choice in that head-to-head matchup. 

Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos polls also have Harris slightly ahead nationally after the debate. 

The Democrats’ improved position is also evident in the battleground states, where Harris has put the Sun Belt back in play for Democrats, while Pennsylvania remains essentially a jump ball. 

What’s more, Iowa is closer than it’s been, with a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll finding Trump ahead in the Hawkeye State by just 4 points among likely voters. A little caution, however: We’ve also seen past Des Moines Register polls (in 2016 and 2020) showing Democrats looking stronger there in September and October before the bottom eventually falls out for them. 

Despite Democrats’ stronger showing, there still are warning signs for Harris, including in the ABC News/Ipsos survey that shows her trailing Trump on the economy and cost of living. 

There’s also the pre-debate New York Times/Siena College poll that found more voters believing Trump represents change than Harris does. 

And then there’s the memory of the polling misses in 2016 and 2020. A shift of just 1 to 2 points in Trump’s direction could wipe away Harris’ gains. (Of course, it’s also possible a polling miss could swing in other direction, benefitting Harris and her party.)

That’s why this presidential race remains close and uncertain. Even the slightest shift in the numbers could alter the perception of who’s ahead and who’s behind.

Trump dispenses with unity and blames Democrats after apparent second assassination attempt

By Jonathan Allen, Matt Dixon and Katherine Doyle

Former President Donald Trump and his allies are fanning political flames after his Secret Service detail thwarted what the FBI is describing as an apparent second attempt to assassinate him in less than 10 weeks.

In a message posted to multiple social media platforms Monday, Trump accused his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, and President Joe Biden of taking “politics in our Country to a whole new level of Hatred.” He said their rhetoric is responsible for threats and violence against him, even though they routinely denounce political violence and did so on Sunday.

Billionaire Elon Musk, a Trump ally, wondered in a tweet why “no one is even trying to assassinate” Biden or Harris — a post that Musk later said was a joke and deleted. 

But it was clear by midday Monday that Trump and his brain trust had no intention of dialing back on hot rhetoric. In turning so fast to Biden and Harris, Trump skipped past appeals for sympathy and even a perfunctory call for calm or unity.

There are signs of division within his ranks about this approach. Some Trump allies believe that the campaign squandered an opportunity for unity following the first assassination attempt. Instead, Trump ramped up his anti-Harris rhetoric, which coincided with him losing traction in polls over the summer.

From Mar-a-Lago, where guests included House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., Trump took phone calls from friends expressing their relief, listened in when acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe phoned Johnson to deliver a briefing on the incident, and told golf-related jokes, according to people familiar with his activities. The scare is unlikely to interfere with Trump’s schedule or campaign plans, according to an adviser who has spoken to him since Sunday’s incident.

While his campaign’s top advisers focused on his security — and that of his aides — in a message sent to staff Sunday night, his fundraising team pressed donors to give money in the immediate aftermath of the incident. On Monday, he repeated an assertion he made in last week’s debate that Biden and Harris are responsible for him being targeted. 

“Their rhetoric is causing me to be shot at,” he said in an interview with Fox News Digital, “when I am the one who is going to save the country, and they are the ones that are destroying the country — both from the inside out.”

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That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]

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