What to expect after the US reimposes naval blockade on Iran’s ports?

Tehran, Iran – The United States has reinforced its naval blockade connected Iran’s confederate ports, amid the escalating subject confrontation betwixt them.

The US blockade connected Iran was archetypal imposed successful mid-April and remained for implicit 9 weeks. It was lone lifted aft the 2 sides signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) successful June to end 4 months of warring and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran instantly began exporting tens of millions of barrels of crude oil, overmuch of it stored connected supertankers anchored adjacent to its lipid terminals. However, aft the caller resurgence successful subject strikes implicit power of the Strait of Hormuz, Washington rescinded lipid and banking waivers issued arsenic portion of the MoU and prevented vessels linked to Iran from returning to larboard to load much Iranian oil.

Since the MoU efficaciously fell isolated owed to caller strikes, US Central Command (CENTCOM) has redirected respective ships operating successful the Strait of Hormuz. It besides launched a onslaught to disable the Curacao-flagged supertanker Belma, which had allegedly been transporting Iranian crude during the war.

Iran has besides been accused of striking ships successful the waterway, starring to the US bombing Iranian coastal areas.

Iranian authorities person acknowledged the erstwhile blockade drastically reduced Iranian crude exports. Iran’s parliament talker and main negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said successful a TV interrogation astatine the extremity of June that “we did not export adjacent 1 barrel” during the blockade.

Energy expert Hamidreza Shokouhi told Al Jazeera that the caller US siege means that astatine slightest 1.5 cardinal barrels per time of Iranian lipid exports volition beryllium taken disconnected the market. That has contributed to pushing lipid prices up to astir $90 per tube and sustained struggle could origin further increases.

“That means much unit connected planetary strategical reserves, which person already been tapped during the warfare and are facing unprecedented pressure,” helium said.

Washington’s insistence connected vessels utilizing the southern way of the Strait of Hormuz adjacent to the seashore of Oman for the duration of the MoU has contributed to the existent subject escalation, the expert said.

Shokouhi noted that Iran responded to the siege by trying to guarantee that nary different determination state could export their lipid via the strait, piling unit connected the US and its allies.

“When the US acts this way, Iran besides moves successful the absorption of not prioritising the system and utilizing the leverage astatine its disposal,” Shokouhi said.

A broadening conflict

Seven nights of tit-for-tat strikes betwixt the US and Iran person rapidly escalated and intensified arsenic the week progressed.

The attacks near a way of demolition successful some Iran and countries crossed the region, with Kuwait and Bahrain heavy targeted by Iranian missiles and drones successful caller days.

The US subject has besides heavy targeted provinces crossed Iran, peculiarly areas successful the southbound person to the strait.

Civilian infrastructure – including bridges and tunnels, ports and dock facilities, powerfulness stations and h2o plants – person been systematically hit, on with subject sites. Some person speculated that could beryllium successful mentation for a ground penetration of Iranian coastal regions.

The Aq Tekeh railway span successful the bluish Iranian state of Golestan was among the archetypal targets to beryllium struck by US forces past week aft the warring re-erupted.

Iranian authorities said harm to the span was rapidly repaired, but the onslaught signalled US willingness to onslaught imaginable import-export routes to exacerbate the interaction of the naval blockade.

Aq Tekeh is connected the Gorgan-Incheh Borun line, which connects Iran to the east, including Turkmenistan, Russia and China. It is wherever nutrient and different essentials are imported from Central Asia and Iranian goods are exported, specified arsenic robust ore and polyethylene.

Rising inflation

The erstwhile US naval blockade had besides importantly impacted goods and markets successful Iran, making mundane beingness for implicit 90 cardinal radical much difficult.

Although determination were nary wide shortages of staples, Iran’s ostentation rate – already 1 of the world’s highest – surged. The terms of immoderate basal foodstuffs, specified arsenic eggs, chickenhearted and cooking oil, has much than tripled compared to a twelvemonth ago.

Price increases person besides damaged different sectors of the Iranian system and industries.

Iranian shoppers successful the Tajrish bazaar successful Tehran, 25 April 2026 [Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA]

“Our income are precise inconsistent. The marketplace is struggling to find prices, there’s excessively overmuch instability and uncertainty astir the future,” said Borzou, a merchant dealing successful concern motors and instrumentality astatine Tehran’s Grand Bazaar.

“It looks similar astir distributors present are inactive tapping into imported inventories from before, we don’t cognize what to expect successful a fewer months since galore of these goods came done China and the UAE and not each tin beryllium imported done inland routes,” helium told Al Jazeera.

Rial hits all-time low

There has besides been aggravated unit connected the Iranian rial from the renewed subject escalation and reimposition of the naval blockade.

The rial changed hands for implicit 1.93 cardinal against the US dollar successful Tehran’s unfastened marketplace connected Saturday, the archetypal time of the Iranian week, registering a caller all-time low.

The Tehran Stock Exchange continued its downward inclination implicit the past week, with its main scale losing different 120,000 points oregon 2.4 percent connected Saturday to basal astatine 4.77 million.

Iran’s equipped forces person warned they volition retaliate against immoderate US strikes connected Iran’s civilian infrastructure by attacking akin targets successful determination countries hosting US subject bases.

“Let’s not hide that the US and Israel started attacks against infrastructure, erstwhile they deed South Pars state fields, Tehran’s lipid depots and the petrochemicals successful Mahshahr,” said vigor expert Shokouhi.

Utilising assistance from the Houthi radical successful Yemen, Tehran could besides origin important disruptions to shipping successful the strategically important Bab al-Mandab strait disconnected Yemen’s seashore – if US President Donald Trump realises his menace to deed much civilian infrastructure successful Iran specified arsenic powerfulness plants and bridges.

“Trump’s actions implicit caller months, and peculiarly implicit caller days, person lone made the concern much intractable and the outlook much uncertain. The existent concern cannot proceed for overmuch longer, but it is broadening the scope of the struggle and that is concerning,” Shokouhi said.