What if unthinkable happens and Kawhi Leonard doesn’t join Raptors?

Few actually believe star player won't be in Toronto, but things would get sub-optimal for all if that comes to pass.

Published Sep 11, 2026  •  3 minute read

Kawhi Leonard, seen here playing for the Toronto Raptors, shoots a free throw during a game against the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2018. Photo by Vaughn Ridley / Files /Getty Images

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Let’s get this out of the way first — it is extremely unlikely that Kawhi Leonard plays for an NBA team other than the Toronto Raptors this upcoming season.

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That’s even though new investigations or allegations surrounding salary cap circumvention by the Los Angeles Clippers, Leonard’s employer since 2019, still seem to be dropping on a weekly basis. Despite the NBA closing its major investigation into the case and announcing penalties on Sept. 2, at which point Leonard accepted his $700,000 fine and distanced himself from his camp’s actions.

But Thursday brought a new wrinkle with news that the Clippers are reportedly under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice about the alleged circumvention, as first reported by the New York Times.

The report said the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Brooklyn, N.Y., was investigating the allegations and cited people who were briefed on some of the details.

Federal prosecutors began looking into the allegations, the report said, before the NBA handed the Clippers a huge fine, plus bans of team owner Steve Ballmer and various executives, as well as taking away multiple first-round draft picks.

It was not clear what the federal investigation would be looking into, the report said, in terms of its “scope, targets and the possible crimes being examined,” although the Times cited two sources as saying that prosecutors had issued at least one subpoena.

Thought exercise

Multi-decade NBA insider and Naismith Hall of Famer Marc Stein reported Friday afternoon he had been told “that the Clippers and Raptors are free at any time to co-submit for NBA approval their agreed-in-June Kawhi Leonard trade. Obviously both teams must want the trade call but I’m told there is no holdup at league level,” Stein reported.

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So, again, all indications are that the June 30 deal will be completed and Leonard will don a Raptors jersey again with Brandon Ingram returning to his original NBA city (albeit with a different team than the Los Angeles Lakers) and Gradey Dick looking to reestablish himself as an NBA talent in a new destination.

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Still, purely as a thought exercise, what if more information came out (the NBA said in its findings it’s possible there will be further fallout down the line as more is uncovered), or what if the Clippers (who continue to insist they did nothing wrong despite how incredulous that seems) decided to spite Leonard, who got off quite lightly despite being the centrepiece or raison d’etre of the whole thing, and not send him to his preferred destination, where he’ll be in line to get the contract extension, adulation and competitive roster he covets?

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What then?

The Clippers would be in the preposterous situation of having Leonard playing in front of fans who probably now despise him for setting the franchise back a decade or so. In a contract year no less (hard to see them granting Leonard his extension). What a scene it would be to have Leonard still in Clippers gear while Ballmer and most of the franchise’s brass banned from the sparkling new building the billionaire businessman funded.

And, in this scenario, the Raptors would have Ingram and Dick around and eating up roughly a quarter of the salary cap with both knowing they aren’t wanted anymore. Awkward.

Sure, the team would have its first-round picks back from the agreed upon June 30 deal and would be able to offer up Ingram (in the last guaranteed year of his deal, but with a hefty player option for 2027-28 likely to be picked up), Dick and RJ Barrett (entering the final year of his deal if he doesn’t sign an extension), plus the picks for another top talent, but major deals are rarely made in late summer or the fall (the Karl-Anthony Towns-Julius Randle and more blockbuster of two years ago being an exception). Leonard-level talents don’t simply grow on trees and aren’t just waiting to be plucked at this point of the year when every team has some degree of hope about its roster, some of it even valid.

Calling it off would be a disaster for Leonard, the Raptors, the Clippers, their fans, ownership and the NBA.

Luckily that probably won’t be the outcome.

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— With files from Jordan Ercit

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