US wants intervention, but Syria signals diplomacy after FM’s Lebanon trip

Syria and Lebanon person agelong had a analyzable relationship, with forces from each state intervening successful the different implicit the years.

United States President Donald Trump has made wide that helium would similar yet different involution – making repeated comments successful caller weeks calling for Syria to instrumentality the pb successful disarming the pro-Iranian Lebanese radical Hezbollah.

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The Syrians person baulked astatine that idea, and the determination by Syria’s Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani to see Lebanon’s parliament speaker, and cardinal Hezbollah ally, Nabih Berri, among the officials helium met during his travel to Beirut connected Thursday, is different denotation of Damascus’s position.

Even with the Syrian government’s dislike for Hezbollah owed to the latter’s subject enactment for the erstwhile Syrian regime, it is wide that al-Shaibani’s boss, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, has nary appetite for a subject escapade crossed the border.

“A gathering with Berri signals a reversal from al-Shaibani’s sojourn past October, erstwhile helium stayed distant from the Shia leadership,” Nawar Hawach, the International Crisis Group’s elder Syria analyst, told Al Jazeera. “It shows that Damascus wants a moving enactment to each Lebanese component, including the bloc closest to Hezbollah.”

Troubled history

If Trump had his way, Syria would beryllium embarking connected yet different section of its troubled narration with its smaller neighbour, Lebanon. For decades, the narration has been 1 wherever Syria either dominated oregon was greatly influential successful Lebanon, portion Hezbollah has besides played its ain subject relation successful Syria successful the past.

Lebanon and Syria’s analyzable narration dates backmost to their instauration arsenic nation-states. Some areas of modern-day Lebanon were administered unneurotic with parts of Syria during the Ottoman Empire play for centuries, until 1918. Both were past controlled by France, earlier gaining independency successful 1946 – though radical wrong Lebanon disagreed implicit whether the state should beryllium its ain authorities oregon beryllium portion of a “Greater Syria”.

Syria – nether archetypal President Hafez al-Assad and past his lad President Bashar al-Assad – did inhabit Lebanon from 1976 until 2005, erstwhile Syrian troops pulled retired of the state aft wide anti-Syrian protests. But al-Assad continued to exert power implicit Beirut done section governmental partners.

That each changed successful December 2024, erstwhile – aft 13 years of warfare – Syrian absorption groups launched an cognition to instrumentality government-controlled areas, including Damascus, from the grip of the al-Assad regime. With the second yet retired of powerfulness aft decades, and his state Hezbollah nary longer invited successful Syria, it was a accidental to reset the narration betwixt Damascus and Beirut.

“Lebanese-Syrian relations tin presently beryllium defined arsenic being successful a delicate transitional phase, neither a instrumentality to the aged tutelage exemplary nor a implicit interruption arsenic successful the post-2011 period,” Souhayb Jawhar, a Lebanese expert with Badil, told Al Jazeera. “The caller Damascus is attempting to rebuild its narration with Lebanon nether the banner of assistance and integration, not interference oregon the imposition of influence.”

Hezbollah issue

Part of the sensitivity betwixt the Syrian authorities and Beirut is down to the relation of Hezbollah. The radical was agelong an state to the al-Assad regime, some being portion of the pro-Iran determination “axis of resistance”. When the clip came to support al-Assad successful the aboriginal years of the warfare successful Syria, Hezbollah responded to the call, and has been accused of carrying retired attacks against Syrian civilians.

The existent Syrian authorities, therefore, person a past of warring Hezbollah during the war, and galore Syrians detest the group.

Last year, the Syrian authorities blamed cross-border clashes with Lebanon connected Hezbollah, though the radical denied involvement.

“Lebanese-Syrian relations look similar a cautious reset toward mean state-to-state dealings, but not yet a unchangeable partnership,” Hawach said. “Practical practice is advancing, portion lingering mistrust and Lebanon’s interior disagreement implicit Hezbollah proceed to enforce a debased ceiling connected the relationship.”

Hezbollah was weakened successful 2024, erstwhile Israel killed astir of its subject leadership, including its longtime Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, arsenic it stepped up its attacks successful Lebanon. But the radical has shown that successful the past fewer months of warring with Israel that has not been wholly demolished arsenic a subject force.

Still, Hezbollah’s aboriginal remains a large question successful Lebanon and successful the region. Despite the Lebanese government’s declarations that it volition disarm Hezbollah, analysts are uncertain however that volition beryllium implemented arsenic agelong arsenic Israel occupies ample swaths of Lebanese territory, and truthful agelong arsenic Iran continues to importune connected linking the Lebanese arena to immoderate statement with the US and Israel.

Al-Shaibani met some Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam during his trip, but it was the gathering with Berri that was possibly astir revealing. It indicates a benignant of applicable reset, analysts said, acknowledging the Shia relation successful Lebanon and aiming to connection Syria’s enactment for interior dialog and stability.

“The value of Asaad al-Shibani’s gathering with Nabih Berri lies successful the information that it opens a nonstop Syrian transmission to the Shia community, not conscionable to the authoritative Lebanese state,” Jawhar said. “Damascus believes that engaging with Berri could supply a mode to reassure the Shia, unfastened a treatment connected interior stability, and guarantee that weapons are solely successful the hands of the state, without pushing matters toward confrontation.”

That effort to reassure Lebanon’s Shia is besides important due to the fact that Syria’s enactment is mostly made up of ex-fighters, galore of whom fought for blimpish Sunni Muslim groups, arsenic good arsenic immoderate – including al-Sharaa – being formerly associated with al-Qaeda.

“Furthermore, Berri possesses the quality to negociate compromises,” Jawhar continued, “and helium understands that immoderate treatment of Hezbollah’s weapons tin lone instrumentality spot done a gradual, interior process, opening with a cessation of Israeli attacks and withdrawal, followed by a treatment of a nationalist information strategy.”

Trump’s statements

After al-Shaibani’s gathering astatine Prime Minister Salam’s office, helium delivered a connection rejecting Israel’s attacks connected Lebanon and said that the caller Israel-Lebanon model statement was an interior issue. Syria and Lebanon person both, similar Gaza, faced Israeli aggression and territorial expansion.

The comments and accent connected Lebanese sovereignty travel connected the backmost of suggestions by Trump that Syria could beryllium relied connected to disarm Hezbollah, alternatively of Israel.

“Trump’s speech of Syria ‘handling Hezbollah’ looks much similar governmental unit than a factual plan,” Hawach said. “Damascus has reasons to regularisation retired a subject relation successful Lebanon, and the sojourn volition apt service arsenic reassurance.”

Trump’s statements were unpopular successful Syria. Al-Sharaa has besides denied suggestions that Syria’s subject volition participate Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. Even with the group’s unpopularity successful Syria, determination is an acknowledgement from galore that Israel is the bigger occupation successful the region.

“It seems that Damascus does not privation to prosecute this people of action,” Jawhar said. “It is existent that the caller Syria does not privation Hezbollah’s weapons to stay a menace to its information oregon a instrumentality for involution wrong Syrian territory; however, it refuses to go a instrumentality successful an American oregon Israeli task to ignite interior Lebanese conflict.”

Analysts warned that specified an involution could pb to a wider determination conflict, which mightiness instrumentality connected a heavy sectarian dimension.

“Damascus wants to forestall the internationalisation oregon regionalisation of the Lebanese and Syrian arenas and prefers to code outstanding issues wrong an Arab model and done nonstop dialog betwixt the 2 countries,” Jawhar said.

He added that the sojourn was besides focused connected Lebanese and Syrian security, and the Israeli withdrawal from confederate Lebanon and confederate Syria.

“In this sense, the sojourn represents a Syrian effort to redefine its narration with Lebanon: nary tutelage, nary rupture, nary subject intervention, but alternatively governmental and information coordination that prevents Israel from exploiting interior divisions.”