US, Iran engaged in tanker war: Where is the months-long conflict headed?

The United States and Iran person escalated tit-for-tat attacks successful the past 24 hours, with Washington targeting three Iranian lipid tankers and Tehran hitting tankers and firing a ballistic rocket towards US warships patrolling adjacent the Strait of Hormuz.

Experts person dubbed Iran’s targeting of the 2 US craft carriers a “calculated escalation”, arsenic the months-long warring is progressively playing retired astatine sea, with some sides trying to exert power implicit the strategical strait – a planetary chokepoint utilized by Tehran arsenic leverage successful the war.

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The attacks connected tankers travel arsenic the US claims that an expanding measurement of lipid has started to travel done the strait, though the nonstop figures are inactive debatable, portion the naval blockade of Iranian ports continues.

The latest exchanges further dim hopes for a de-escalation done diplomacy arsenic the US-Israel warfare connected Iran has disrupted vigor supplies and slowed economical maturation astir the world.

So, what bash we cognize astir the latest tanker wars, and wherever is the struggle headed?

What bash we cognize astir the latest attacks connected tankers?

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said its forces struck 3 Iranian vessels, including a tanker disconnected Kharg Island, the hub done which Iran exported 90 percent of its crude earlier the war.

Another tanker was struck adjacent Jask, and an unladen vas was deed successful the Gulf of Oman aft its unit was told to wantonness ship.

CENTCOM said the attacks followed Iranian ballistic rocket launches against a US craft bearer and navy destroyer, which it said successfully evaded the strikes. No US unit were injured.

“If you sprout astatine 2 of our ships, we volition enforce an adjacent higher economical outgo — taking retired 3 of yours,” CENTCOM commandant Admiral Brad Cooper said.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it launched “several ballistic missiles” astatine the craft bearer and destroyer, accusing them of “harassing Iranian ships” and taking portion successful a naval blockade.

“The Iranians did not lone people 2 mean warships – they targeted a rocket destroyer and, remarkably, an craft bearer … the backbone of the American run against Iran,” defence expert Wolfgang Pusztai told Al Jazeera.

“This is simply a very, precise important development, and it doesn’t travel arsenic a astonishment that the Americans retaliated.”

Iran past said its forces besides targeted 3 lipid tankers travelling done what it called an “unauthorised route” successful the Strait of Hormuz and 3 US-linked vessels elsewhere.

In a connection carried by Iranian broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC navy warned each vessels successful the Gulf oregon adjacent the Strait of Hormuz not to beryllium “deceived” by the US subject and to “refrain from immoderate suspicious question aimed astatine transiting unauthorised waterways”.

“Otherwise, you volition beryllium targeted,” it said.

On Sunday, Iran claimed it struck an unmanned US vas trying to participate the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Associated Press quality agency.

Why are they attacking tankers?

Washington claimed the Iranian tankers it struck were portion of a multibillion-dollar shadiness web financing the IRGC and its determination allies.

Iran has agelong relied partially connected a shadiness fleet to circumvent sanctions and merchantability oil, a root of gross that has go much important since the US began blockading Iranian ports successful April.

Iran efficaciously unopen the Strait of Hormuz, done which 20 percent of the world’s lipid supplies flowed, successful retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks that began connected February 28. Some 20 cardinal barrels of lipid flowed regular earlier the warfare began.

People connected a vessel instrumentality pictures of vessels arsenic they transit the Strait of Hormuz disconnected the seashore of Bandar Abbas, Iran, connected September 5, 2026 [AFP]

Hassan Ghashghavi, a lawmaker and spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, said the attacks connected US warships were portion of “an existential warfare with America”, arguing that Washington’s naval blockade “should ne'er person existed” successful the archetypal place.

“Naturally, they person acted militarily successful usurpation of each planetary laws,” helium told Al Jazeera, adding that “because America is acold from us, it does not spot this warfare arsenic existential”.

Meanwhile, the US has continued to physique unit connected Iran to unfastened the cardinal waterway, some militarily and economically.

Last month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a raft of economic measures to people Tehran’s fiscal interests crossed the world.

Bessent said the US would people each of Iran’s sources of revenue, including oil, to forestall different countries and companies from doing concern with Tehran.

This comes contempt US assertions of normalcy successful the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington insisting the waterway is unfastened and that dozens of ships carrying millions of barrels of lipid transit it each day.

Last week, Bessent claimed that immoderate 17 cardinal barrels of crude lipid a time had been shipped retired recently, according to a study successful the United Kingdom’s The Times newspaper. Al Jazeera, however, could not independently verify the claims successful the report.

President Donald Trump claimed past period that the US was successful “total control” of the strait.

Yet figures from marine analytics steadfast Kpler amusement lone six vessels crossed the strait connected Wednesday, 11 connected Tuesday and 5 connected Monday, with a 10-day mean of conscionable 13 vessels per day.

What is the latest with lipid prices?

The attacks are adding to concerns astir planetary vigor supplies.

Brent crude futures closed connected Friday astatine $96.28 a barrel, their highest level since July 24, up from astir $70 earlier the war.

Predictably, US lipid and state prices person besides skyrocketed, coming astatine a important clip for Trump arsenic Americans caput to the polls for midterm elections successful November.

Diesel deed a caller grounds terms successful the US connected Friday, soaring to an mean of $5.85 a gallon ($1.55 per litre) for the archetypal clip ever. Polls person repeatedly suggested a bulk of Americans reason the war, which has besides plunged Trump’s popularity.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted successful precocious August recovered that lone 31 percent of Americans backmost the war, portion 63 percent are against it.

The aforesaid polling suggested Trump’s support standing has dropped to 33 percent, down from 40 percent since the warring began.

Where is the struggle headed?

The renewed exchanges of strikes betwixt Iran and the US people an escalation successful the six-month-long conflict, according to the manager of the Middle East studies programme astatine George Washington University, Sina Azodi.

Azodi told Al Jazeera that neither broadside volition “cave in” due to the fact that it “will not look bully connected them, truthful the lone enactment is to escalate”.

He said unless determination is simply a governmental settlement, the warfare volition continue.

“There’s going to beryllium much clashes betwixt the Iranians and the Americans. There tin beryllium miscalculations. There tin beryllium much civilian casualties”, particularly connected the Iranian side, Azodi said.

“The [US] caput of defence tin nonstop much troops to the region, but I don’t deliberation the Iranians are going to backmost down. They’re going to defy that blockade and enforce further costs connected the United States.”

He said the extremity of the US and Iran is to unit the different to backmost down. “The victor is going to beryllium the 1 that tin judge much costs and punishment,” Azodi said.

Commenting connected Iran’s strategy, Ali Akbar Dareini, an expert astatine the Center for Strategic Studies successful Tehran, echoed Azodi, saying the US attacks connected Iranian lipid tankers are a “big issue” that Iran cannot spend to fto “go unanswered”.

“Does it marque Iran surrender? No, it compels Iran. It incentivises Iran to lash retired and retaliate” much harshly, Dareini told Al Jazeera.

He said the US naval blockade, coupled with sanctions, is inflicting terrible symptom connected Iran, but added the second has plans to antagonistic it. Iran cannot tolerate this naval blockade to continue, truthful Iran is already making preparations to interruption the siege.

“At the aforesaid time, Iran decidedly has its ain plans to marque definite that lipid prices volition sprout up implicit $100 per barrel,” Dareini said.