Trump tariffs hit Canada’s dairy farmers as US sales stall

Abbotsford, British Columbia – Every 2nd day, 28,000 litres of earthy beverage permission Casey Pruim’s workplace successful Abbotsford successful occidental Canada, entering a organisation strategy built connected the presumption that the beverage and the products made from it volition person determination to go.

While astir is consumed successful Canada, immoderate had been sold crossed the borderline to the United States.

Those income person mostly travel to a standstill since US President Donald Trump’s 50 percent tariff connected $20bn successful Canadian goods, including dairy products, came into effect connected August 22.

Pruim, who is besides seat of the British Columbia Dairy Association representing astir 400 dairy farmers crossed the province, told Al Jazeera that Canadian farmers bash not individually determine which products are exported.

Instead, producers specified arsenic Pruim –  whose workplace has 330 cows milked 3 times a day  –  merchantability into the provincial milk-marketing system, which distributes beverage to processors according to demand, including for products exported to the US.

If a processor loses US demand, it whitethorn necessitate little milk, with the interaction past dispersed crossed the provincial pool.

Dylan Kruger, manager of nationalist affairs astatine BC Dairy, told Al Jazeera “there is inactive sizeable uncertainty astir the interaction of the US tariffs”.

He said it was excessively aboriginal to cognize however the manufacture would beryllium impacted oregon whether beverage nary longer sold to the US could beryllium sold elsewhere, mitigating fiscal losses.

But the tariffs and wider commercialized tensions person already introduced uncertainty and instability for businesses.

Casey Pruim, proprietor of Prime Acres Ltd dairy workplace successful Abbotsford, British Columbia, heads the BC Milk Producers Association successful Canada’s occidental state [File: Ali Mustafa/Al Jazeera]

“If the processor who’s exporting immoderate of his merchandise to the United States tin nary longer merchantability into that marketplace due to the fact that he’s present priced retired of the marketplace with a 50 percent tariff, that’s however it would interaction the dairy farm,” Pruim said.

Pruim said if processor request is squeezed, farmers would beryllium forced to dump the milk. In the worst-case scenario, the herd has to beryllium cut.

“Cows aren’t similar a tap; you can’t conscionable crook them connected oregon off,” helium said.

His informing captures dairy’s peculiar vulnerability successful a tariff war: Milk is highly perishable, collected connected a choky docket and babelike connected processors whose request tin alteration overmuch faster than farmers tin set production.

“These tariffs are wholly unwarranted,” David Wiens, president of the Dairy Farmers of Canada, told Canada’s CBC News, adding that they would impact “the proviso chain, not lone successful Canada but successful the US arsenic well”.

Supply-management system

Dairy commercialized betwixt Canada and the US has mostly operated nether a escaped commercialized statement betwixt the US, Mexico and Canada, known arsenic CUSMA successful Canada.

Canada manages the proviso of dairy, poultry and eggs done a nationalist cultivation argumentation known arsenic proviso management. The strategy uses accumulation quotas and import controls, including tariffs, to supply farmers with much unchangeable and predictable prices portion maintaining home supply.

Critics picture the strategy arsenic protectionist and arsenic a government-backed cartel.

Washington argues that Canada’s supply-management strategy restricts US dairy exports. Trump posted connected Truth Social that “Canada had been ripping disconnected the United States of America for years” and accused it of imposing “ridiculously precocious tariffs” that made beingness intolerable for US farmers.

Canadian producers cull that argument, saying the existing commercialized statement already gives US imports important tariff-free entree that is not afloat utilised.

Canada’s dairy commercialized shortage with the US has grown importantly since CUSMA came into unit connected July 1, 2020, according to the Dairy Processors Association of Canada.

In 2020, Canada exported 241.3 cardinal Canadian dollars ($173m) successful dairy products to the US and imported 647.4 cardinal Canadian dollars ($462.7m) worthy of dairy and dairy products. In 2025, Canadian dairy exports had risen to 308.7 cardinal Canadian dollars ($220.7m) portion dairy imports from the US had much than doubled to 1.355 cardinal Canadian dollars ($968.5m), accounting for 13.8 percent of full worth of US dairy exports, according to the association.

Nearly 14,000 litres of beverage are stored regular successful the refrigeration portion astatine Casey Pruim’s workplace successful Abbotsford, British Columbia, astatine a somesthesia of 2.8’C [File: Ali Mustafa/Al Jazeera]

Bryan Yu, main economist astatine Central 1 recognition union, said the contiguous daze of losing a large marketplace could beryllium hard for Canadian producers to sorb due to the fact that replacement buyers cannot beryllium recovered quickly.

“There is going to beryllium symptom successful the adjacent word for a batch of our producers,” Yu told Al Jazeera.

“You truly can’t rapidly set to a 50 percent tariff, due to the fact that it’s uncharted waters for a batch of industries … and yet it shuts [Canadian producers] out, due to the fact that a batch of them don’t person the margins that they tin play with,” helium said.

Yu said Canadian consumers mightiness sorb immoderate of the further proviso portion exporters hunt for caller markets and higher-value products, but neither accommodation is instantaneous.

“There are planetary markets arsenic well, particularly erstwhile you speech astir chilled, chilled beef, chilled products and truly it’s a question of whether … different types of markets that could beryllium available.”

Canada has besides imposed retaliatory tariffs, which came into effect connected September 8 and screen $20bn worthy of US products.

Dairy products are among the targeted goods. The database includes a 50 percent tariff connected milk, pick and whey products and a 25 percent tariff connected galore cheeses imported from the US.

Casey Pruim has a herd of 330 cows astatine his dairy workplace successful Abbotsford, British Columbia [File: Ali Mustafa/Al Jazeera]

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has framed Ottawa’s effect arsenic some retaliation and an effort to physique greater economical resilience.

Announcing the illness of the latest negotiations, helium said Canada would lucifer Washington’s caller tariffs “dollar for dollar” to support workers, farmers, families and businesses.

But retaliatory measures transportation risks of their own.

“Canada’s caller retaliatory tariffs volition assistance immoderate industries but wounded astir and weaken economical maturation crossed the state by raising costs for producers and consumers,” Oxford Economics said successful a report.

For now, geography remains important for perishable goods similar dairy products that erstwhile moved rapidly crossed the US borderline and cannot beryllium redirected overnight to a distant marketplace without caller buyers, logistics and regulatory approvals.

Ottawa’s Trade Commissioner Service is advising affected companies to cheque their CUSMA compliance, research disposable alleviation and interaction commercialized commissioners astir imaginable caller markets.

Yu predicted that the US and Canada could scope a tariff woody successful the pursuing months but said the interim play could bring “higher prices, weaker economical enactment and deeper mistrust”.

For Pruim, the uncertainty is arsenic destabilising arsenic the tariff menace itself.

“I think, similar [for] immoderate Canadian, it’s disappointing to person these commercialized talks illness again and conscionable the uncertainty astir it.”