Trump ‘rejects’ Iran’s seven-day ceasefire proposal. What’s next?

United States President Donald Trump has reportedly ruled retired an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz wrong a week, according to unnamed US officials cited by The Wall Street Journal.

Trump’s rejection comes conscionable hours aft Iran enactment guardant a caller roadmap to opening the strait, done which one-fifth of planetary lipid and earthy state is shipped during peacetime – and days aft the US president threatened to “annihilate” Iran from the level of the UN General Assembly.

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Here’s what we cognize astir Trump’s effect to the connection and what could travel adjacent successful the conflict.

What was successful Iran’s seven-day proposal?

The connection lays retired a roadmap to unfastened the Strait of Hormuz with mean maritime transition wrong a week.

Speaking to reporters connected Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said the proposal calls for the US to instrumentality actions it committed to nether the failed June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) connected an accelerated timeframe.

Those actions see releasing $12bn successful frozen Iranian assets, lifting Iranian lipid sanctions and ending the US’s naval blockade connected Iranian ports, Araghchi told reporters astatine a backstage media briefing connected Thursday, according to The New York Times. He besides said each hostilities, including successful Lebanon, wherever Israel inactive occupies portion of the southbound of the country, indispensable cease during the seven-day period.

Araghchi said erstwhile the US conditions are met – which helium estimated would instrumentality 4 oregon 5 days – the Strait of Hormuz could beryllium reopened and negotiations with the US connected a “final deal” would commencement connected time seven.

He said the process could statesman arsenic soon arsenic the US accepts the plan.

“The prime present rests with the United States,” said Araghchi. “Iran does not judge coercion, threats oregon intimidation.”

How has the US responded?

The US authorities has not publically responded to the plan.

However, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had rapidly ruled it out, citing unnamed US officials.

They said Trump was sceptical astir whether Iran would fulfil US demands. Trump’s astir persistent demands person been that Iran ne'er beryllium capable to get a atomic limb and that it reconstruct escaped transition successful Hormuz.

Iran says it volition not sermon its atomic programme until the conditions it has laid down are met, which has led to an impasse betwixt the 2 sides.

Meanwhile, a US authoritative has told Al Jazeera that Washington is successful nary hurry to respond to Iran’s connection and that it sees itself arsenic being successful a beardown presumption with respect to the Strait of Hormuz.

Late connected Friday night, Trump posted an representation of a representation connected his Truth Social level that labelled it “Trump Strait”.

Trump has antecedently said the US has “total control” implicit the waterway and threatened to designate it arsenic a US territory. Iran powerfully denied that, saying it has implicit power of the strait.

Are bid negotiations inactive happening?

Yes, but mostly indirectly. At the UN General Assembly successful New York this week, Qatar has been passing messages betwixt the 2 sides arsenic an intermediary.

Both the US and Iran person said the doorway to diplomacy remains unfastened and a US authoritative told Al Jazeera that ongoing mediated talks are “positive and constructive”.

Qatar, a cardinal mediator successful the conflict, said its overseas curate spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian connected Friday astir de-escalation and the conditions for renewed dialogue.

Earlier this week, US officials, including peculiar envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, held mediated discussions with Iranian counterparts successful New York, a gathering Trump described arsenic “very good”.

Nevertheless, determination is “an tremendous magnitude of scepticism successful Washington that the 2 countries are connected the aforesaid page,” according to Thomas Warrick, elder chap astatine the Atlantic Council.

“I deliberation that the champion we tin anticipation for is that this connection from the Iranian overseas curate does pb to further discussions to effort to clarify what preconditions Washington is consenting to enactment with,” Warrick told Al Jazeera.

Where does the US-Iran standoff spell from here?

Possibly towards renewed hostilities.

According to the US officials cited successful The Wall Street Journal, Trump told his aides helium expects to transportation retired a caller bombing run against Iran aft the US midterm elections successful November.

That comes aft Trump told the UN General Assembly helium was considering whether to “annihilate” Iran and “drive them into hell” successful the lack of a deal.

At the aforesaid time, Trump has said helium believes a woody to extremity the struggle volition travel soon aft the midterms.

Paul Musgrave, an subordinate prof of authorities astatine Georgetown University successful Qatar, told Al Jazeera that Trump “doesn’t privation to extremity the warfare connected unfavourable terms” and that the effect of November’s elections volition apt assistance steer his policy.

If Trump’s Republican enactment suffers terrible setbacks successful the elections – and loses its bulk successful Congress – helium whitethorn opt for “unilateral actions, including possibly a resumption of warfare”, said Musgrave.

“That would besides mean that Iran would person delivered a truly stinging governmental stroke to President Trump,” Musgrave continued, adding this could trigger short-term escalation, “followed by dialog truthful that the White House doesn’t look similar it’s conscionable surrendering”.