Toronto at the tipping point: Bringing a once-great city back from the brink

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As recently as a decade ago, urban visionaries were still optimistic, and I had great hopes for Toronto. In 2016, in accepting the Couchiching Award for Public Policy Leadership, I gave a speech contending that we were “on the threshold of a new era for cities.” Global mega-trends, such as the technology revolution and the migration of people everywhere into cities, were setting the stage for positive urban transformation. I was impressed by the explosion of interest in city building, pointing to a spate of new books that argued that the crisis in our urban centres was creating a movement to make our cities sustainable, livable, and more competitive.

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I believed that the idea that cities play a pivotal role in driving economic prosperity; in nurturing innovation; in allowing people to live healthy, happy lives in livable, walkable communities; and in protecting our environment and ecosystems upon which life depends had become accepted wisdom. There seemed to be a growing sense of urgency about the need to develop our cities differently, to embrace a more compact form of urban development and complete communities.

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However, while there have been some successes, we are not seeing the overall progress that many of us had expected. We are dismayed by traffic jams, deteriorating infrastructure, sky-high housing costs, and worsening transit service, typified by long delays and weekend shutdowns.

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Car traffic jam at the entrance of a freeway in downtown Toronto. Photo by dhvstockphoto /Shutterstock

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Multi-year setbacks and cost overruns have made the Metrolinx Eglinton Crosstown the poster child for the mismanagement of public transit projects. In Ontario, both health and education services are facing major systemic challenges, leading to concerns about accessibility and quality. Because of its population density and diversity, as well as unique issues such as housing shortages, homelessness, and other social problems, the impacts of declining health and education services are particularly severe in the Toronto region.

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As noted, these problems are long-standing. But their level and intensity are new. We have largely ignored them, and they are worsening such that this turning point can fairly be described as a tipping point.

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The existing issues and efforts to reverse Toronto’s decline have been exacerbated and complicated by Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president. His focus on “America First,” protectionism, and a confrontational approach to international relations, particularly with Canada, is impacting our economy, our politics, our social contract, and our cultural environment. The economic impacts of Trump’s threats and trade war include costs, shifts in trade relationships, and a general atmosphere of uncertainty, affecting economic growth and job stability across the country.

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Trump’s aggressive actions against Canada have emboldened Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s approach to land-use planning in Ontario; under the guise of protecting the province’s economy from the president, Premier Ford has introduced legislation that undermines local democracy and accountability. Trump’s polarizing rhetoric and actions have altered the social and political climate everywhere, adding to the challenges of maintaining social cohesion in the cultural mosaic city-region of Toronto. We can see debates on human rights and public policy becoming increasingly contentious, leading to divisive and sometimes violent protests. Trump is pushing Canadians to consider the question of what kind of society we aspire to be.

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If we do not address the underlying causes of our malaise, predictions that Toronto has entered an irreversible downward spiral may come to pass. Can Toronto re-establish itself as a great place for people to live and businesses to prosper?

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