Thousands of Canadian jobs at risk from new Trump tariffs, study says

University of Calgary economist says his analysis estimates 52,000 jobs are at direct risk

Published Aug 24, 2026  •  2 minute read

Photos of President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House and Prime Minister Mark Carney speaking at a press conference in Ottawa. Photo by (Photo by Jim WATSON and Dave Chan / AFP via Getty Images)

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A University of Calgary economist says the trade war could put thousands of Canadian jobs at risk.  

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“Roughly 87,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk because of the United States’ new 50% tariffs on Canadian goods,” economist Trevor Tombe said in a paper released on Aug. 20. “If we assume that these tariffs remain in place for some time, what it effectively means is that Americans will be purchasing fewer of the tariff items from Canadian producers — and that will mean less output in Canada and therefore less employment in those exporting firms.” 

Prime Minister Mark Carney recalled his negotiating team back to Canada’s capital on Friday night after trade talks fell apart with the United States because of “unreasonable” requests from the Americans.  

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In resonse, President Donald Trump slapped a 50% tariff on goods such alcoholic beverages, dairy products, electronics, telecom equipment, furniture and home goods, and building materials.  The tariffs went into effect on Aug. 22.

As of Monday afternoon, there were no indications trade discussions between the two nations would resume anytime soon.

Who is at risk?

Tombe says his analysis estimates 52,000 jobs are at direct risk, with another 35,000 of the indirect nature.  

Ontario would be the hardest hit province with approximately 36,100 job losses. Quebec would be second with 18,300 and B.C. third with 11,200.  

The industries expected to have the highest job losses are machinery, electronics, plastics, rubber, furniture and toys.  

“B.C. is heavily exposed to component circuit board type electronics that are exported to the United States, but also wood products,” Tombe said. “This is something that’s quite important for B.C. and Quebec — to the extent that it affects (the) forestry sector, furniture manufacturing, textiles as well. About half the exports of those two sectors will be affected by these new tariffs.” 

Combe writes that there is some good news for other areas of the county. 

“Much of Atlantic Canada, along with Alberta and Saskatchewan, appears largely spared,” he said. “For Alberta, I estimate the increase is about 0.5 percentage points.” 

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