The Trump era sees Canadians — and Americans — enlisting in the military in swelling numbers

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“Without this program, the army would not have met its recruiting targets.”

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Some analysts see pay raises in both countries as being helpful but not determinant. Canada announced a new tiered pay package last August that increased entry-level pay by 20 per cent. The U.S., meanwhile, approved a 3.8 per cent military salary raise for this year and offered higher housing and living allowances.

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But regular pay increases for the military are nothing new, Kuzminski noted.

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Charlotte Duval-Lantoine, vice-president of Ottawa operations at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, is skeptical that higher pay has really moved the needle on recruitment.

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“Money is an important motivator… but it usually doesn’t feature as the first reason people join,” she said.

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“The money might be the cherry on top, rather than the main motivator,” she added, noting how it can help with retention.

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Because so many things changed at the same time, Shimooka says it’s impossible to attribute the surge to pay alone, but he acknowledges that the poor state of the Canadian economy and weak labour market can boost the appeal of stable military employment.

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“With youth unemployment high, the military providing a pretty stable base is one of the big reasons,” he said. Canada’s unemployment rate for youth aged 15-24 was 12.7 per cent in June, nearly double the 6.5 per cent average national rate. In the U.S., youth unemployment was 9.2 per cent, which was more than double the 4.5 per cent national rate.

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Kuzminski agrees that the state of the economy can make the military more attractive.

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“When employment is bad, we see an increase in the appeal of military service,” she said, noting how recruiters often look for people who are “on the cusp” and may be driven by the need for a steady income.

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While the rebound started before Trump’s second win and return to office, experts say he has helped raise the profile of military service.

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He’s had an indirect impact, for example, by reviving the Presidential Fitness Test — which helps keep young people fit enough for enlistment — and by raising awareness of the military’s role. His rhetoric against Canada has also stirred nationalist sentiment north of the border.

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But it’s less politics driving up the numbers and more a sense of purpose and stability, Kuzminski suspects. The politics matter more for parents of recruits and older military personnel.

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“There aren’t a lot of 18-year-olds joining based on who the president is,” she said. “The things that drive them are a steady paycheque and a sense of service.”

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Trump has also increased pressure on NATO allies to up their military spending, which Canada has agreed to increase significantly.

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In Canada, Duval-Lantoine noted that the rebound started with the Ukraine war, but she acknowledges that increased public awareness of military careers is helping. This, combined with a security environment that feels more dangerous, with more need for military strength, means people now see the military as a stable, supported career path.

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“Now you are way more aware of the military as a career … that already makes it more attractive,” she said.

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Kuzminski said the same is true in the United States, and she credits Trump’s contribution in highlighting the value of serving.

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His focus on it “raises the visibility of the importance of military service,” she said, pointing to how this is making a career in the armed forces a “viable option” as opposed to a “fallback.”

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“There is no question that (Secretary of War Pete) Hegseth’s showmanship and emphasis on excellence and war fighting resonate with the troops,” added Mark Cancian, senior adviser with the defence and security department at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies. “He has created excitement.”