The Kids Aren’t Alright With MAGA

There’s no denying that President Donald Trump has a vise-like hold over the current Republican Party. Time and again, he has shown an uncanny talent to chuck chaos at even bipartisan bills, like the one House Speaker Mike Johnson sent to the White House on Monday only to be met with “yawn” from his fellow Republican Trump. At the same time, it now looks like Trump and Johnson may end up lashing an annual must-pass, traditionally bipartisan defense bill to a Trump pet project that would make it harder for Americans to vote in this fall’s elections—and force lawmakers to pick funding the military through a stand-alone measure or allow Trump’s federal restrictions to put a thumb on the scales in November’s midterm elections as a trade-off to get cash to the troops.

That’s not to say Trump has limitless—or permanent, even—stage-manager energy over his party. In fact, as my TIME colleague Philip Wang reported this spring, there are real ideological divides between Republican voters under 30 and this President. Most surveys bear this out, for sure.

And in new data released this week from the Ronald Reagan Institute, there are very clear warnings that the kids aren’t alright with MAGA. In fact, two-fifths of GOP voters under 30 do not align with Trump’s quest to Make America Great Again, or at least not in his paradigm. Beyond Trump himself, that should be a sign to Republicans looking downfield for their next plays—especially those who are already jockeying to follow him as President come early 2029. (Yes, the shadow campaign has already begun.)

Among all Republicans in the Reagan survey, 25% said they were not part of MAGA. For those under 30, that number hits 39%. That’s a bloc that cannot be ignored in a coalition holding together with little margin for error.

Even among that MAGA sphere, there is definitely a drop-off in enthusiasm among the under-30 set than writ large. Strong majorities of all ages agree the United States needs a strong military, should spread freedom and democracy, and engage with the world to promote Americans’ economic standing. The younger MAGA crowd are just less gung-ho about it. They also see more upside in engaging with international organizations, with 70% of them seeing value in NATO compared to 62% of all MAGA. At the same time, when asked directly if the United States is better served by withdrawing from world affairs to put America First, the under-30 MAGA set says yes with a 72% margin. Among all MAGA, that number stands at 64%.

The differences and contradictions might be easy to dismiss. Consider the basic ages inside the self–described MAGAverse. Of the whole MAGA movement, just 9% of it—as represented in the Reagan poll—is under the age of 30. Of the non-MAGA GOP, the under-30 number hits 19%. Not to mention that voters under the age of 30 tend to have lower voter registration and participation rates. 

But these young voters are the future. It’s basic Campaigns 101 that if a candidate can hook younger voters, they keep coming back even after that election is over. In the last presidential election, 48% of eligible residents under the age of 25 cast ballots. Going up each age bucket, the numbers grow, topping 75% for those 65 and over, according to Kaiser data.

That same year, voters under 30 made up just 14% of the total presidential vote, according to network exit polls. But Trump carried 43% of them—meaning he still got around 1 million votes from voters in that age range.

It’s clear in the data and on-the-ground conversations with younger conservatives that Trump might not be building a machine that he could easily transfer to the next MAGA warrior, however. 

After months of the punditocracy revisiting Trump’s efforts to use podcasts and the manosphere to bring out younger voters in 2024, it seems there are limits to memes. Since coming back to office, Trump has seen his approval ratings among all voters under the age of 30 fall a whopping 50 points, according to YouGov surveys. In fact, he has a net negative of 45 points in that age group.