The factor complicating election polls and witnesses recall Wichita soccer tragedy: Morning Rundown

Oct. 19, 2026, 7:05 AM EDT

Why election surveys come with an extra layer of uncertainty. Witnesses recall the horrific scene as a truck plowed through a youth soccer game in Kansas. And inside the silent growth of Flock cameras.

Here’s what to know today.

Who will actually show up to vote? The question complicating election polls

With Democrats favored to win the House and state-level polls showing the Senate within the party’s reach, turnout remains the biggest unknown that will decide what kind of election we have.

Republicans are hoping the polls this year are underestimating their support, which has happened in the past. But no one can know for sure who will turn out until after votes are counted — polls aren’t predictions, only snapshots in time.

This is Morning Rundown, a weekday newsletter to start your day. Sign up here to get it in your inbox.

02:34

Kornacki analyzes new Decision Desk poll on midterm enthusiasm

00:0000:00

National surveys can vary based on how pollsters identify a population that doesn’t yet exist: the “likely voter.” Depending on how we choose to identify likely voters, Democrats have anywhere between a 14- and 4-point advantage over Republicans when it comes to control of Congress.

Each firm has its own method, but all likely voter polls rely on two factors: letting the voters tell us what they’ll do, or predicting whether someone will vote based on who they are.

Marc Trussler, a senior elections analyst on the NBC News Decision Desk, breaks down how this works using our latest poll as an example.

The fight for Congress is playing out largely on Republican-held turf. But headwinds for President Donald Trump’s party have made Democrats optimistic. See the latest data and which states are in play here. Plus, 71% of U.S. adults think the country is on the “wrong track,” the highest share yet in Trump’s second term.

Witnesses haunted by moment pickup plowed through a Kansas youth soccer game

2 killed, 10 injured after woman drives truck through youth soccer game

02:04

Witnesses of a deadly collision in which a pickup truck barreled through a youth soccer game in Kansas, killing two people and injuring nearly a dozen others, said they are haunted by what they saw and heard.

A 6-year-old boy and 35-year-old man were killed in the incident, which unfolded Saturday at a sports complex in Wichita, police said. The driver, 34, was released from custody with a toxicology and mechanical report pending.

Erica Case said it was halftime during her son’s soccer game on an adjacent field when she first heard an engine revving, followed by several “boom” sounds.

“The moment that I recognized that that wasn’t gunshots, that that was bodies, I lost it,” Case said. “I lost it because it wasn’t just adults. It was also children.”

Here’s what others told us.

NFL Week 6: The return of Caleb Williams, and life gets worse for the Rams

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams celebrates a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in the third quarter.

Week 6 of the NFL season featured a star player’s return and another devastating loss for a Super Bowl contender.

Here’s all the action you need to know about from yesterday:

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams played for the first time since an injury in Week 2, with a 31-23 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.
After entering the season as a Super Bowl favorite, the Los Angeles Rams (2-4) are in last place in the NFC West after an 18-16 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.
The Kansas City Chiefs improved to 5-0 with a 22-6 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Is their offense returning to their dynastic heights?
Thanks to familiar miscues, the Dallas Cowboys are off to their worst start in years.

Read the full list of takeaways here.

Staff Pick: How Flock’s cameras spread through government deals that bypassed public scrutiny

I’ve covered Flock Safety’s ALPR cameras for more than a year. These cameras are license plate readers that in many cases create detailed portraits of Americans’ vehicle movements, accessible to police across the country without a warrant.

A major part of that story has been how many Americans from multiple walks of life and across the political spectrum have fought back against the cameras in their communities, both legally through their local governments and through illegal vandalism. Over and over, I heard them asking how these cameras, from a company less than a decade old, suddenly went up in their towns and counties, often with their tax dollars and without their knowledge.

So I dug into dozens of Flock contracts across the country, and found at least one answer: Many of them were structured in ways that helped reduce how much attention they might get from local communities. In some cases, they would be for amounts just a few dollars shy of a key threshold — like the number that would require a city council to approve them — with local leaders saying outright this was to avoid a vote. In far more cases, I found contracts where Flock helped local officials secure a “no-bid” contract, claiming that their technology was particularly unique and they didn’t have to open up a process of looking at multiple vendors.

Flock didn’t invent these tactics, and there’s no indication that they did anything illegal with these contracts. But this survey gives some clear insight into how existing rules communities use for purchasing police tech can help a surveillance tech company quietly install cameras across the country.

— Kevin Collier, cyber security reporter

Read All About It

A service member died after falling during a pregame aerial demonstration at a college football game in San Antonio, Texas.
Cindy Crawford has paid tribute to her son Presley Gerber. Crawford addressed the tragedy for the first time since Gerber’s death in September, in an Instagram post shared yesterday. The former supermodel and actor wrote that the family is “beyond heartbroken to lose our beloved son and brother.” Kaia Gerber also posted a tribute to her brother on Instagram the same day.
A California woman who prosecutors allege was spying on a son of Taiwan’s president was indicted on charges including being an unregistered foreign agent for China.

Elizabeth Holmes’ movie “You Can See Everything” was a weekend hit with thousands of sellouts.

Four Canadian service members were killed and 39 people injured when a fast-moving fire swept through an outdoor military training exercise in Alberta. The cause is under investigation.
Australian lawmaker Helen Haines is in critical condition after being deliberately struck by a car outside her office in Wangaratta, police and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

NBC Selected: Online Shopping, Simplified

Winter is the best time to catch up on all the shows you’ve been meaning to watch. If you don’t know where to start, our editors put together a guide of the best streaming services of 2026. If you’re looking to upgrade your current viewing experience, we rounded up the best TVs to shop right now and make a solid argument for buying a TV antenna in the 21st century.

Sign up to The Selection newsletter for hands-on product reviews, expert shopping tips and a look at the best deals and sales each week.

Thanks for reading today’s Morning Rundown. Today’s newsletter was curated for you by Kayla Hayempour. If you’re a fan, please send a link to your family and friends. They can sign up here.

Oct. 19, 2026, 7:05 AM EDT

By Kayla Hayempour

Why election surveys come with an extra layer of uncertainty. Witnesses recall the horrific scene as a truck plowed through a youth soccer game in Kansas. And inside the silent growth of Flock cameras.

Here’s what to know today.

Who will actually show up to vote? The question complicating election polls

With Democrats favored to win the House and state-level polls showing the Senate within the party’s reach, turnout remains the biggest unknown that will decide what kind of election we have.

Republicans are hoping the polls this year are underestimating their support, which has happened in the past. But no one can know for sure who will turn out until after votes are counted — polls aren’t predictions, only snapshots in time.

This is Morning Rundown, a weekday newsletter to start your day. Sign up here to get it in your inbox.

02:34

Kornacki analyzes new Decision Desk poll on midterm enthusiasm

00:0000:00

National surveys can vary based on how pollsters identify a population that doesn’t yet exist: the “likely voter.” Depending on how we choose to identify likely voters, Democrats have anywhere between a 14- and 4-point advantage over Republicans when it comes to control of Congress.

Each firm has its own method, but all likely voter polls rely on two factors: letting the voters tell us what they’ll do, or predicting whether someone will vote based on who they are.

Marc Trussler, a senior elections analyst on the NBC News Decision Desk, breaks down how this works using our latest poll as an example.

The fight for Congress is playing out largely on Republican-held turf. But headwinds for President Donald Trump’s party have made Democrats optimistic. See the latest data and which states are in play here. Plus, 71% of U.S. adults think the country is on the “wrong track,” the highest share yet in Trump’s second term.

Witnesses haunted by moment pickup plowed through a Kansas youth soccer game

2 killed, 10 injured after woman drives truck through youth soccer game

02:04

Witnesses of a deadly collision in which a pickup truck barreled through a youth soccer game in Kansas, killing two people and injuring nearly a dozen others, said they are haunted by what they saw and heard.

A 6-year-old boy and 35-year-old man were killed in the incident, which unfolded Saturday at a sports complex in Wichita, police said. The driver, 34, was released from custody with a toxicology and mechanical report pending.

Erica Case said it was halftime during her son’s soccer game on an adjacent field when she first heard an engine revving, followed by several “boom” sounds.

“The moment that I recognized that that wasn’t gunshots, that that was bodies, I lost it,” Case said. “I lost it because it wasn’t just adults. It was also children.”

Here’s what others told us.

NFL Week 6: The return of Caleb Williams, and life gets worse for the Rams

Week 6 of the NFL season featured a star player’s return and another devastating loss for a Super Bowl contender.

Here’s all the action you need to know about from yesterday:

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams played for the first time since an injury in Week 2, with a 31-23 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.
After entering the season as a Super Bowl favorite, the Los Angeles Rams (2-4) are in last place in the NFC West after an 18-16 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.
The Kansas City Chiefs improved to 5-0 with a 22-6 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Is their offense returning to their dynastic heights?
Thanks to familiar miscues, the Dallas Cowboys are off to their worst start in years.

Read the full list of takeaways here.

Staff Pick: How Flock’s cameras spread through government deals that bypassed public scrutiny

I’ve covered Flock Safety’s ALPR cameras for more than a year. These cameras are license plate readers that in many cases create detailed portraits of Americans’ vehicle movements, accessible to police across the country without a warrant.

A major part of that story has been how many Americans from multiple walks of life and across the political spectrum have fought back against the cameras in their communities, both legally through their local governments and through illegal vandalism. Over and over, I heard them asking how these cameras, from a company less than a decade old, suddenly went up in their towns and counties, often with their tax dollars and without their knowledge.

So I dug into dozens of Flock contracts across the country, and found at least one answer: Many of them were structured in ways that helped reduce how much attention they might get from local communities. In some cases, they would be for amounts just a few dollars shy of a key threshold — like the number that would require a city council to approve them — with local leaders saying outright this was to avoid a vote. In far more cases, I found contracts where Flock helped local officials secure a “no-bid” contract, claiming that their technology was particularly unique and they didn’t have to open up a process of looking at multiple vendors.

Flock didn’t invent these tactics, and there’s no indication that they did anything illegal with these contracts. But this survey gives some clear insight into how existing rules communities use for purchasing police tech can help a surveillance tech company quietly install cameras across the country.

— Kevin Collier, cyber security reporter

Read All About It

A service member died after falling during a pregame aerial demonstration at a college football game in San Antonio, Texas.
Cindy Crawford has paid tribute to her son Presley Gerber. Crawford addressed the tragedy for the first time since Gerber’s death in September, in an Instagram post shared yesterday. The former supermodel and actor wrote that the family is “beyond heartbroken to lose our beloved son and brother.” Kaia Gerber also posted a tribute to her brother on Instagram the same day.
A California woman who prosecutors allege was spying on a son of Taiwan’s president was indicted on charges including being an unregistered foreign agent for China.

Elizabeth Holmes’ movie “You Can See Everything” was a weekend hit with thousands of sellouts.

Four Canadian service members were killed and 39 people injured when a fast-moving fire swept through an outdoor military training exercise in Alberta. The cause is under investigation.
Australian lawmaker Helen Haines is in critical condition after being deliberately struck by a car outside her office in Wangaratta, police and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

NBC Selected: Online Shopping, Simplified

Winter is the best time to catch up on all the shows you’ve been meaning to watch. If you don’t know where to start, our editors put together a guide of the best streaming services of 2026. If you’re looking to upgrade your current viewing experience, we rounded up the best TVs to shop right now and make a solid argument for buying a TV antenna in the 21st century.

Sign up to The Selection newsletter for hands-on product reviews, expert shopping tips and a look at the best deals and sales each week.

Thanks for reading today’s Morning Rundown. Today’s newsletter was curated for you by Kayla Hayempour. If you’re a fan, please send a link to your family and friends. They can sign up here.