Syria’s restrained approach to Israel carries risks

Last week, Israel attacked Syrian territory yet again. Israeli forces shelled a hilltop adjacent Beit Jinn successful the occidental Damascus countryside, portion soldiers raided a colony successful Quneitra province.

The attacks came conscionable days aft Israeli combatant jets struck the Abu al-Duhur subject basal successful bluish Syria, inflicting important damage. Israel said the onslaught was intended to forestall a imaginable Turkish subject deployment there, though some Damascus and Ankara disputed these claims. The Israeli attacks person persisted contempt Syrian efforts to de-escalate done diplomacy, and disapproval from Washington of the Abu al-Duhur strike.

While avoiding confrontation, the authorities of Ahmed al-Sharaa continues to importune that Israel retreat from Syrian territory it has occupied and that Damascus indispensable stay escaped to rebuild its equipped forces and cooperate with the partners of its choosing.

All this reveals much than Syria’s subject weakness. It suggests that the caller Syrian enactment believes sovereignty tin beryllium recovered by rebuilding authorities capableness first. This strategy, however, carries imaginable risks: Israel whitethorn proceed to encroach connected Syrian sovereignty portion taking vantage of Syrian restraint; and the Syrian authorities whitethorn yet statesman to suffer the spot of Syrians and the wider Arab public, among whom Israel is overwhelmingly viewed arsenic a threat.

Syria’s weakness is real. In precocious 2024, aft the service of erstwhile President Bashar al-Assad collapsed, Israel struck strategical subject assets crossed the country. The caller authorities past had to statesman assembling a nationalist information architecture from dysfunctional institutions and a patchwork of equipped groups.

For now, a Syrian subject effect susceptible of altering Israel’s behaviour is hard to imagine.

Instead, al-Sharaa has placed economical betterment and planetary legitimacy astatine the apical of his priorities. His authorities has focused connected rebuilding authorities institutions, restructuring the information sector, restoring vigor supplies, improving overseas relations and reconnecting Syria to the planetary economy. But rebuilding Syria is an tremendous challenge.

The World Bank estimates that reconstructing Syria’s damaged carnal assets volition outgo astir $216bn. A authorities facing needs connected that standard cannot reconstruct its authorization done subject institutions alone. It needs revenue, electricity, functioning administration, banking access, concern and outer relationships.

Al-Sharaa has achieved important advancement connected the planetary front. Washington dismantled the wide Syria sanctions programme successful 2025, portion the European Union lifted its economical sanctions, though targeted and security-related measures remain. On August 24, Washington besides removed Syria from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list, eliminating different cardinal obstacle to fiscal normalisation and investment.

For Damascus, these steps grow the resources with which the authorities tin govern; they are not simply an economical dividend of avoiding war.

This besides makes the quality with Israel much consequential. Syria’s reconstruction strategy present depends heavy connected precisely the planetary entree that years of isolation denied it. A large subject escalation with Israel could undermine capitalist confidence, complicate Syria’s reintegration into planetary banking and weaken the diplomatic enactment connected which its betterment depends.

It could besides exposure Damascus to renewed governmental unit by Washington and the EU, adjacent if this does not automatically construe into the reimposition of wide sanctions.

The dilemma is truthful becoming sharper: Restraint helps Damascus sphere the planetary situation it needs to rebuild the state, but it besides gives Israel country to constrain the precise subject and strategical capableness Syria is trying to reconstruct.

Israel has information concerns astir the caller Syrian government, whose enactment emerged from an equipped Islamist movement, and it is progressively alarmed by Turkiye’s subject narration with Damascus. But Israeli demands person extended good beyond preventing hostile forces from approaching its border.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for the demilitarisation of Syria’s Quneitra, Deraa and Suwayda provinces. His authorities has besides opposed the deployment of forces belonging to Syria’s caller service southbound of Damascus and has sought to restrict the scope of Damascus’s subject practice with Turkiye.

Israel intelligibly wants to bounds the rebuilding of Syria’s subject capacity. It sees specified interference done the prism of preventive security. Damascus sees the aforesaid contented done the prism of sovereignty: A authorities that cannot determine wherever its service deploys oregon with whom it trains has not afloat recovered strategical autonomy.

This is 1 of the cardinal risks of al-Sharaa’s strategy. Syria is avoiding an unwinnable confrontation partially to rebuild the capacities of authorities power, portion those aforesaid capacities are progressively becoming objects of Israeli pressure.

There are limits to what restraint tin achieve. Syria has the backing of different Arab states, portion the United States and EU person supported the reconstruction of a functioning Syrian authorities arsenic portion of their attack to determination stability. Damascus has besides repeatedly expressed involvement successful reaching a information statement with Israel.

And yet, nary of this has stopped Israeli subject action.

The different hazard concerns Syrian nationalist opinion. Appearing indefinitely incapable to respond to Israeli attacks could yet harm al-Sharaa’s nationalist lasting and the legitimacy of his government.

A ample survey by the Arab Center Washington DC conducted successful 2025 recovered that 74 percent of Syrians opposed recognising Israel, 70 percent rejected an statement that did not see the instrumentality of the Golan Heights, and 88 percent believed Israel threatened Syria’s information and stability. At the aforesaid time, 61 percent said the existent government’s overseas argumentation reflected the views of the Syrian people.

The findings are important precisely due to the fact that they complicate the picture. The survey predates the latest confrontations and does not archer america whether Syrians favour subject retaliation. It establishes governmental reddish lines, not a nationalist request for war.

Wider Arab polling points successful the aforesaid direction. Across the countries surveyed successful the 2025 Arab Opinion Index, absorption to recognising Israel remained overwhelming.

That said, Syria nether the al-Assads besides mostly avoided confrontation with Israel portion retaining a estimation for belonging to the determination “resistance” camp. The aged exemplary combined avoidance of nonstop warfare with alliances and equipped networks that gave Damascus determination leverage.

Al-Sharaa’s authorities appears to beryllium making a antithetic bet, focusing connected consolidated institutions, economical recovery, planetary entree and a rebuilt nationalist military.

This does not regenerate territorial sovereignty. It is an effort to rebuild the means of exercising it.

The stake volition go harder to defend, some astatine location and abroad, if restored authorities capableness does not yet springiness Syria greater power implicit its territory, its information choices and its overseas relations.

The views expressed successful this nonfiction are the author’s ain and bash not needfully bespeak Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.