Strange betting behavior for Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley fight turns out to be meaningless

There was some sketchy stuff happening in the betting market before Sean Brady and Joaquin Buckley met in the octagon for their welterweight bout at UFC 328 Saturday.

Buckley opened as a +150 underdog and was bet up to a -220 favorite, setting off alarms among bookmakers and the UFC itself. Dana White has recently pulled fights for "betting irregularities," so this is something the promotion monitors.

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Sean Brady before the bell rings in the first round of his fight vs. Joaquin Buckley at UFC 328 in the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. (John Jones/Imagn Images)

Dave Mason from BetOnline, a popular offshore sportsbook, cited "abnormal betting patterns from highly motivated accounts" in a post on X and announced that props were closed and limits were low for Brady vs. Buckley. 

My initial thoughts when I saw this post were, "Uh oh. Another sports betting scandal. Great."

When a fighter goes from a clear underdog to a sizable favorite, either someone knows something, or the fighter is "taking a dive." 

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Sean Brady punches Joaquin Buckley during UFC 328 at Prudential Center in Newark. (John Jones/Imagn Images)

Typically, it’s the former. Meaning, a fighter got hurt during training camp, someone from his team leaked the information and wiseguys bet his opponent.

That’s where the UFC’s minds first went when it saw this crazy line movement.

According to ESPN’s David Payne Purdum, "Brady told (Sportsbet’s) Aaron Bronsteter that the UFC contacted him to see if he was hurt," which obviously, he wasn’t. Because, man, did Brady pummel Buckley. 

Sean Brady "grounds and pounds" Joaquin Buckley during UFC 328 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. (John Jones/Imagn Images)

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Brady won a unanimous decision and props to Buckley for even going the distance. Brady had all four takedowns in the fight and he outlanded Buckley 245-21 in total strikes and 77-4 in "significant" strikes. 

So, as it turned out, the money was wrong. This is a good reminder that steam is not always the truth. Sometimes sports are random and betting on this stuff is hard as hell. 

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.