Sri Lanka election 2024: Who could be the next president, what’s at stake?

Sri Lankans volition ballot connected Saturday to elite the South Asian nation’s 10th president successful the archetypal predetermination since the catastrophic 2022 economical situation that saw the state default connected its loans.

Months of nutrient and substance shortages had caused governmental chaos forcing then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to fly the state successful July 2022.

The incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took implicit from Rajapaksa and has since tried to crook the system around, is seeking re-election. He is being challenged by Anura Kumara Dissanayake from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) enactment and Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) party.

Here is however the predetermination volition beryllium held, what the apical candidates are promising — and what’s astatine involvement for the federation of 22 cardinal people.

What clip does the polling commencement successful Sri Lanka?

The voting volition statesman astatine 7am (01:30 GMT) connected Saturday crossed the country’s 13,134 polling stations. Polls adjacent astatine 4pm (10:30GMT). Vote counting is expected to commencement astatine 9:30pm (16:00 GMT).

How bash elections successful Sri Lanka work?

• An autarkic assemblage called the Election Commission of Sri Lanka (ECSL) oversees the election.
• About 17 cardinal radical retired of Sri Lanka’s 22-million colonisation are eligible to vote. Sri Lankan nationals aged 18 years oregon above, who are registered with the predetermination commission, tin vote.
• Police, service and different nationalist servants who cannot formed their votes successful idiosyncratic connected predetermination time ballot done postal ballots successful advance. This year, the beforehand voting took spot connected September 11 and 12, according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES).
• Voters fertile up to 3 candidates successful bid of their penchant connected a ballot paper.
• A campaigner needs to unafraid 50 percent of votes arsenic a archetypal penchant to unafraid the statesmanlike spot successful the archetypal round.
• If nary campaigner wins 50 percent successful the archetypal round, a 2nd circular of counting takes spot betwixt the apical 2 candidates from the archetypal round. Other candidates are eliminated.
• No run-off ballot is conducted to find the president. Instead, the 2nd preferences of the ballot papers for the eliminated candidates are considered. If those 2nd preferences are for either of the apical 2 candidates, they are transferred to their tallies.
• If 1 of the 2 remaining candidates is marked arsenic the 3rd preference, the ballot is counted for that candidate.
• According to the 19th Amendment of Sri Lanka’s Constitution, passed successful 2015, the president holds bureau for 5 years, and has a two-term limit.

Who are the cardinal candidates?

A full of 38 candidates are vying to triumph the apical enforcement station successful the South Asian nation. While the fig of candidates was initially 39, 1 candidate, autarkic Idroos Mohamed Ilyas, died of a bosom onslaught successful August.

The cardinal candidates are:

Ranil Wickremesinghe, a six-time premier minister, assumed bureau arsenic interim president successful July 2022 pursuing Rajapaksa’s removal. While the 75-year-old has been affiliated with the centre-right United National Party (UNP), helium is moving for the apical occupation arsenic an autarkic candidate.

Wickremesinghe is campaigning with his slogan “Puluwan Sri Lanka” oregon “Sri Lanka Can” and connected the connection that helium pulled the state retired of economical duress.

But portion respective economical indices person improved — ostentation is down dramatically, and the gross home merchandise (GDP) is increasing — Wickremesinghe is besides criticised by opponents for belonging to the precise aforesaid governmental elite that is blamed for the 2022 economical crisis. The incumbent president has governed with the backing of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) enactment of the Rajapaksa family.

Critics besides impeach Wickremasinghe — whose policies person included cuts successful societal payment schemes to equilibrium the country’s books — of making the weaker sections of Sri Lankan nine carnivore the brunt of the sacrifices needed for the nation’s economical recovery.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake is from the Marxist enactment Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which has emerged successful popularity aft the 2022 crisis.

But Dissanayake’s popularity has been connected the emergence since the wide protestation question – known arsenic the Aragalaya [Sinhalese for “struggle”] – erupted against then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his member and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Both were forced to resign.

The 55-year-old Dissanayake played an progressive relation successful the protestation question and has been captious of a bailout woody Wikremesinghe struck with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has accrued the outgo of surviving for Sri Lankans.

Though the JVP enactment is inactive a marginal subordinate successful Sri Lanka’s parliament, Dissanayake’s popularity has been soaring. At the centre of his governmental run is simply a committedness to destruct corruption that appears to person resonated with ample sections of Sri Lankan society.

Sajith Premadasa founded the populist Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) aft breaking distant from Wikremesinghe’s UNP. Premadasa, lad of erstwhile President Ranasinghe Premadasa, is the existent person of absorption successful Sri Lanka’s parliament.

A longtime rival of Wickremasinghe erstwhile they some belonged to the UNP, Premadasa besides contested the 2019 statesmanlike election, successful which helium mislaid to Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

His father, the erstwhile President Premadasa, was assassinated successful 1993 by rebels belonging to the Tamil separatist group, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. But Premadasa, successful caller years, has tried to tribunal the country’s Tamil ballot — the assemblage constitutes 11 percent of the Buddhist-majority nation.

A salient enactment representing Tamils from the northbound and eastbound of the country, the Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), has thrown its enactment down the absorption person Premadasa. In the 2019 election, a sizeable fig of Tamils voted for him.

Namal Rajapaksa from the SLPP is the youngest campaigner astatine 38 and is the eldest son of Mahinda Rajapaksa, who has served arsenic some the country’s president and premier minister. He is the nephew of removed President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and is claiming to bring alteration to the table. However, enactment for the Rajapaksa household is astatine its lowest owed to the economical havoc of 2022.

Namal Rajapaksa was curate of younker and sports nether his uncle’s presidency betwixt 2020 and 2022.

None of the 38 candidates successful the predetermination are women, though Sri Lanka gave the satellite its archetypal pistillate PM – Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike – successful 1960.

Who is starring the polls successful Sri Lanka?

Polls suggest Dissanayake could beryllium the frontrunner.

This includes the Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), which showed the leftist person astatine 48 percent, followed by Premadasa astatine 25 percent. Incumbent Wickremesinghe is 3rd with 20 percent. Namal Rajapaksa trails acold down astatine 5 percent.

According to the website Numbers.Ik, which compiles statistic astir Sri Lanka, Dissanayake is starring with 40 percent, followed by Premadasa astatine 29 percent and Wickremesinghe astatine 25 percent. This is based connected online information collected betwixt September 9 and September 16.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake addresses the last nationalist rally earlier the predetermination successful Colombo, Sri Lanka, connected September 18 [Eranga Jayawardena/AP]

What’s astatine stake?

The system is arguably the biggest contented for Sri Lankans successful the election. The country’s system crashed successful 2022, with ostentation shooting up to 70 percent and the currency depreciated by 45 percent. For months, radical formed agelong queues to fetch fuel, which severely affected regular lives.

Former President Rajapaksa’s economical argumentation and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic are believed to person contributed to the worst economical situation successful the land nation.

While immoderate economical indicators person improved nether Wickremasinghe, critics accidental that has travel astatine a cost: IMF loans person meant that taxes and energy prices person been hiked arsenic portion of the woody with the planetary lender.

“Due to the erosion of the socioeconomic indicators specified arsenic nutrient information and poorness rates, the wellbeing and people’s improvement is severely astatine stake,” said Rajni Gamage from the Institute of South Asian Studies astatine the National University of Singapore.

While some Premadasa and Dissanayake person said they volition proceed with the IMF bailout negotiated with Wickremesinghe past year, they person pledged to trim taxes and privatisation. Premadesa, successful an interrogation with the Associated Press quality agency, said helium had already started talks with the IMF to easiness people’s taxation burden.

This year, the votes of taste minorities could crook the predetermination conscionable arsenic they person successful erstwhile polls. The starring candidates are each Sinhalese, but the voters travel from a divers acceptable of communities including Tamil, Moor, Muslim and Burgher.

While Dissanayake’s run is built astir rallying fashionable support, helium has said helium does not regret supporting the Rajapaksa government’s warfare against the Tamil Tigers. The equipped rebellion by the Tamil rebels was crushed successful 2009 nether President Mahinda Rajapaksa aft 26 years.

Wickremesinghe, connected the different hand, is trying to entreaty to Tamil politicians, to devour into the community’s enactment for Premadasa.

“One happening that truly stands retired arsenic antithetic astir this predetermination is the lack of a beardown ideological sermon among the 3 main candidates,” said Gamage of the National University of Singapore.

“The benignant of divisive Sinhala Buddhist nationalism we saw successful the 2019 statesmanlike run is overmuch much muted now,” she told Al Jazeera.

“If you look astatine the 3 main candidates, determination is much oregon little statement connected having to proceed with the existent IMF programme.

“There are tiny distinctions made connected however this would beryllium done, that is, governance indicators, and immoderate quality successful the relation of the marketplace and the state, but overall, determination is what we place arsenic a wide consensus.”

When volition the results beryllium released?

The electoral authorization has not fixed a circumstantial day for predetermination results.

In the 2019 election, the results were declared a time aft polling.

What happens if nary 1 wins a majority?

In past elections, determination were lone 2 intimately competing candidates. One campaigner emerged arsenic a wide victor and 2nd oregon 3rd choices person ne'er been counted.

With much candidates successful the fray, and 3 candidates with important support, analysts accidental determination is simply a existent anticipation that no 1 campaigner secures the required 50 percent majority. This mightiness agelong the ballot number to longer than usual.