Six months of war between Iran, US leave Arab states facing tough questions

The Iran warfare is settling into attrition, with nary authorities illness and Gulf economies facing increasing uncertainty

Analysts broadly hold the United States and Israel’s warfare connected Iran volition not spot authorities illness successful Tehran oregon a definite triumph for Washington, but alternatively a dragged-out matter of stagnation and attrition.

The anticipation among the US enactment astatine the commencement of the war, which began aft astonishment Israeli and US attacks connected February 28, was that mounting economical and subject unit connected Iran would unit a structural displacement successful Tehran. Six months on, it is wide this imaginativeness volition not travel about, and alternatively galore are preparing for a protracted warfare and managed fallout.

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Oil-dependent economies are inactive absorbing proviso shocks aft postulation successful the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a trickle of pre-war levels pursuing Iran’s attacks connected shipping and a US blockade connected Iranian ports.

The US subject is inactive entrenched successful a portion that remains its astir militarised successful years. Although the war’s strength has lessened since a memorandum of knowing (MoU) was signed by Washington and Tehran successful June, determination is nary motion it volition conclude, starring to continued uncertainty astir the future.

Existing tensions, specified arsenic those betwixt the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia successful Yemen, look lone acceptable to summation arsenic the warfare drags on. The power of rival powers, specified arsenic those of India and China, remains stalled alternatively than stopped, with Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative having already established itself wrong the Middle East and North Africa. All successful all, the portion remains successful flux wherever ceremonial alliances with extracurricular powers nary longer warrant safety.

The defence agreement betwixt Turkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia precocious signed successful Mecca volition apt beryllium the archetypal of galore specified subject pacts agreed successful the region.

“The warfare has conscionable accelerated trends, but hasn’t truly started thing that wasn’t already nether way. The Gulf countries were already diversifying their economies,” Sanam Vakil, manager of the Middle East and North Africa Programme astatine Chatham House, told Al Jazeera. “Many were already looking astatine broadening their defence partnerships beyond existing US information guarantees, arsenic good arsenic expanding their ain defence capability.”

Israel, for its part, is inactive pursuing its determination task of “paramountcy”, HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute said, contempt its nonaccomplishment to bring Iran to its knees this year.

“There is nary accidental of the authorities successful Tehran falling successful the adjacent six months,” Hellyer told Al Jazeera. “If everything were to theoretically enactment the aforesaid … with conscionable accrued economical pressure, that could yet origin a ripple effect that could pb to authorities illness successful Iran. But we’re talking years, not months, and everything is not apt to enactment the same.”

Smoke rises from the tract of a drawstring of Israeli aerial strikes that targeted the country of al-Mansouri, arsenic seen from the confederate Lebanese metropolis of Tyre connected August 25, 2026 [Kawnat Haju/AFP]

The effectual closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes connected determination cities person hindered Gulf states’ plans to usage lipid revenues arsenic an motor to diversify their economies and physique connected their reputations arsenic a harmless haven to promote investors.

Shipments of oil, derivative products and liquefied earthy state (LNG) person been repeatedly and severely disrupted since the US and Israel launched their attacks connected Iran successful February.

Transit done the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which saw attacks connected shipping by the Houthis during Israel’s genocidal warfare connected Gaza, became adjacent much hazardous successful July, erstwhile the Iran-allied Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.

“The terms of lipid has accrued broadly successful enactment with the Gulf states’ difficulties successful exporting it,” John Sfakianakis, main economist astatine the Gulf Research Center, told Al Jazeera. “Is this going to spell for six months? Is it going to spell connected for longer?”

Exacerbating the Gulf states’ difficulties is that, though the terms of lipid has risen, truthful has inflation. In summation to the economical difficulties the warfare has created, determination is besides increasing unit for Gulf states to put much successful defence.

For now, the bulk of the states caught successful the mediate volition look astatine ways of surviving with the turmoil and managing the consequences.