Serbia’s snap election: Can Vucic outmanoeuvre the student revolt?

For weeks, the streets of Serbia were teeming with young radical rallying against the government. At the height of the protests in March 2025, much than 100,000 took to the streets.

The student movement had called for aboriginal elections for astir 2 years, and President Aleksandar Vucic, who resigned connected Sunday, yet heeded their telephone earlier this month. He announced snap parliamentary elections for October 25.

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With the elections primitively not owed until December 2027, the aboriginal ballot is seen arsenic an effort by governing populists to cling to powerfulness contempt wide discontent.

Students and anti-government demonstrators airy the flashlights of their mobile phones during a protest, which became a nationalist question for alteration pursuing the deadly November 2024 Novi Sad railway presumption extortion collapse, successful Belgrade, Serbia, March 15, 2025 [Igor Pavicevic/Reuters]

Vucic is vying for the premier minister’s post, a relation helium has held before, appearing to output to protesters’ demands not retired of goodwill but successful the hopes of ushering successful a effect that keeps him successful office, analysts say.

But experts pass that elections volition hardly lick the underlying governmental tensions gripping the country, triggered aft 16 radical were killed successful 2024 erstwhile a factual canopy collapsed astatine a railway station. Student protesters blamed the catastrophe connected authorities negligence and alleged corruption.

The determination “is fundamentally astir reducing governmental risk”, Viktor Stamenkovic, a researcher astatine Belgrade’s Institute for Political Studies, told Al Jazeera.

“Given the circumstances, the ruling campy is choosing the electoral series it considers slightest dangerous,” helium said, referring to Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

Saving his skin: Elections a cling to power

Vucic could stall nary much – some the statesmanlike and parliamentary ballot would person had to beryllium held adjacent year.

“Vucic has, for immoderate time, been alert that further hold is improbable to enactment successful his favour,” Stamenkovic said.

Vucic’s statesmanlike word expires earlier the mandate of the existent parliament, said Stamenkovic. Serbia’s caller governmental past explains the bid of the elections – the parliamentary earlier the presidential, the expert added.

Presidential elections tin fundamentally change the parliamentary dynamics that travel – which is however Vucic’s enactment came to power, Stamenkovic explained.

Vucic cannot tally for a 3rd word nether Serbia’s constitution, and nary different SNS fig is arsenic fashionable arsenic him.

“In 2012, the statesmanlike triumph of the SNS campaigner Tomislav Nikolic changed the governmental momentum truthful dramatically that the bloc, which had antecedently appeared susceptible of forming a parliamentary majority, was yet incapable to bash so,” said Stamenkovic. “The statesmanlike effect altered the calculations of the parliamentary parties and paved the mode for a authorities led by SNS.”

Vucic, therefore, has bully crushed to fearfulness the aforesaid script being repeated.

Aleksandar Vucic has resigned arsenic president to tally for the premiership [File: Pierre Suu/Getty Images]

Vucic has built a personalised governmental strategy centred connected himself alternatively than his enactment oregon immoderate successor, said Stamenkovic.

“He truthful has to find a mode of transferring his ain governmental spot from the presidency into the parliamentary arena … efficaciously staking his governmental aboriginal connected the parliamentary election.”

For Milica Vojinovic, an investigative newsman astatine the Serbian outlet KRIK, the extremity of the governing enactment is to enactment successful powerfulness astatine immoderate cost.

“They [want to] proceed their corruption projects, which usually means uncovering caller ways and nationalist procurements done which they tin instrumentality money… [including from] nationalist budgets,” Vojinovic told Al Jazeera.

She cited irregularities successful past elections, specified arsenic ballot buying by the SNS, documented by predetermination observers and quality rights organisations, and feared that the adjacent elections volition spot an “escalation of these tactics, present that the pupil question is really threatening to triumph the predetermination and instrumentality powerfulness from Vucic’s party”.

The ballot volition not resoluteness country’s discord

Since 2024, the governing enactment has mislaid a consciousness of governmental legitimacy, said Stamenkovic.

“Even if – and this is simply a large if – SNS wins different parliamentary majority, it is hard to envisage a instrumentality to a concern successful which it tin govern usually and assertion the benignant of wide societal legitimacy it erstwhile enjoyed,” helium said. “Virtually each polling shows that a bulk of the state believes Serbia is heading successful the incorrect absorption and that the clip has travel for change.”

Mass demonstrations person not taken spot successful Serbia for immoderate time, arsenic the pupil question has shifted from organising ample rallies to predetermination campaigning.

The younker question precocious submitted their predetermination database to authorities predetermination authorities aft a jubilant march done the superior of Belgrade, formally entering the race.

Polls amusement that this ballot could bring representatives of the pupil question into parliament and authorities institutions, said the Serbia-based Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA).

“This is important for Serbia’s ideology … [They] volition decidedly amended the legitimacy of the parliament arsenic the typical body,” the radical said.

Transparency and anticorruption are priorities for astir citizens, with the societal and governmental world successful the state having changed successful the 2 years since the railway presumption incident, the organisation added.

Vojinovic, however, predicted that if Vucic’s party continues to clasp power, “we are to expect the astir repressive measures seen truthful acold against everyone who has been criticising, oregon successful immoderate mode opposing, the government”.

Criminal cases person already been brought against immoderate activists successful the pupil movement, arsenic good arsenic a governmental analyst, she said.

According to Human Rights Watch, overseas cause laws, archetypal introduced by Russia and seen being picked up by different nations, person been utilized to marque autarkic civilian society, media and different dissenting voices arsenic illegitimate and acting connected behalf of overseas interests. Such a instrumentality was projected successful Serbia successful 2024.

“Recent smear campaigns against my newsroom, arsenic good arsenic different autarkic media outlets and NGOs, pb america to judge that they whitethorn beryllium a precursor to the instauration of a ‘foreign agents law’ successful the adjacent future, should Vucic’s enactment stay successful power,” Vojinovic added.

EU rift nary matter

Meanwhile, Serbia is nary person to joining the European Union, but that is not a existent precedence for Vucic, the experts said.

“It is wide understood that Serbia cannot marque meaningful advancement towards EU rank nether the existent strategy of government,” said Stamenkovic. “What matters overmuch much to Vucic is avoiding superior governmental unit and disapproval from Brussels.”

Ratko Mladic’s funeral illustrates this balancing act: Serbia hosted the semi-official honouring of the erstwhile Bosnian Serb service wide – who died portion serving a beingness condemnation for genocide, warfare crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the 1992–1995 warfare successful Bosnia – but Vucic did not attend, helium said.

“In immoderate ways, the narration betwixt Vucic’s authorities and the EU resembles a mates trapped successful a disastrous matrimony who nevertheless bash not divorcement due to the fact that some sides proceed to payment from the relationship.

“Vucic cooperates with the EU connected issues that substance to Brussels, portion the EU has for years been consenting to place a large woody astir the progressively authoritarian quality of his rule,” helium added.

The 2 are besides astatine likelihood implicit Russia, which Serbia has ties with.

A nationalist sentiment canvass successful June by the CRTA and Stanford University’s Democracy Action Lab showed that among SNS voters, 15 percent wanted person ties with the EU portion 60 percent favoured relations with Russia.

“There is each crushed to expect predetermination time itself to beryllium highly contentious,” said Stamenkovic.