‘Sealed in blood’: Where does the China-North Korea alliance stand today?

Chinese leaders often picture Beijing’s narration with North Korea arsenic adjacent “as lips and teeth”, but arsenic lukewarm arsenic bilateral ties appear, this is simply a narration underscored supra each by strategical necessity.

On July 11, 1961, past Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai and North Korean person Kim Il Sung signed the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance successful Beijing. Sixty-five years later, the pact remains successful force, containing a communal defence clause committing either broadside to assistance the different if 1 comes nether equipped attack. It is China’s lone ceremonial subject alliance, underlining the treaty’s importance, but overmuch has changed since it was signed.

A motion of the continued value of this pact came this week, with a three-day sojourn by North Korea Premier Pak Thae Song to Beijing to observe the relationship treaty.

But during the past 65 years, China has transformed itself from an impoverished revolutionary authorities into the world’s second-largest economy, portion North Korea remains isolated and heavy sanctioned.

Yet their confederation has survived the Cold War, China’s economical opening to the world, the illness of the Soviet Union and decades of hostility implicit Pyongyang’s atomic weapons programme.

Why has it lasted done these? Neither broadside tin spend to fto it fail.

China wants stability

The China-North Korea relationship was forged during the Korean War, erstwhile United States-led forces precocious towards China’s borderline successful 1950, and Beijing sent hundreds of thousands of troops into North Korea.

China called them “volunteers”, but they fought nether Chinese bid and suffered tremendous casualties. That shared past remains cardinal to the authoritative communicative and Chinese and North Korean leaders often picture the relationship arsenic 1 “sealed successful blood”.

Their ideological values broadly align. Both are socialist one-party states profoundly suspicious of Western power, and some reason the beingness of American troops connected the Korean Peninsula. Both impeach Washington of utilizing alliances, sanctions and subject unit to incorporate countries that garbage to judge its authority. But shared ideology lone goes truthful far, with China embracing overseas investment, backstage endeavor and planetary trade.

Beijing progressively portrays itself arsenic a reliable planetary spouse and person of the Global South, portion North Korea has mostly unopen itself disconnected from the world. Beijing prizes predictability whereas Pyongyang often uses instability to summation attention, leverage oregon concessions.

China’s precedence is not needfully a stronger North Korea but a unchangeable one. Beijing does not privation the North Korean authorities to collapse, which could perchance nonstop monolithic numbers of refugees crossed their 1,400km (870-mile) borderline and rise the anticipation of a unified Korean Peninsula aligned with Washington. North Korea truthful serves arsenic a strategical buffer betwixt China and the US beingness successful the region.

Beijing besides doesn’t privation war, arsenic this would disrupt commercialized successful the portion and perchance make a atomic situation connected China’s doorstep.

This explains China’s sometimes contradictory presumption – successful the past it has supported United Nations sanctions against North Korea’s atomic and ballistic rocket programmes, portion opposing measures it believes could destabilise the government. It besides continues to supply a captious economical lifeline to Pyongyang arsenic its biggest trading partner. China wants the North Korean authorities contained and healthy, not cornered oregon desperate.

North Korea wants options

For decades, China was North Korea’s main diplomatic spouse and protector, but astatine the aforesaid time, Pyongyang does not privation to beryllium wholly connected Beijing.

Its increasing narration with Moscow has changed the balance, with North Korea and Russia successful 2024 signing a broad strategical concern treaty, including a communal defence provision. Since then, subject and governmental practice betwixt the 2 countries has substantially deepened.

For North Korea person Kim Jong Un, Russia provides different almighty partner, much country to manoeuvre and perchance entree to subject technology, vigor resources and hard currency. For Beijing, this is some utile and uncomfortable.

Russia tin trim the economical load of supporting North Korea and fortify a broader beforehand against US influence. But person subject ties betwixt Moscow and Pyongyang could besides embolden Kim’s atomic ambitions and make much instability successful Northeast Asia – a portion it considers its backmost yard. Crucially, China does not privation to suffer its power implicit the North Korean authorities to Russia.

But the determination information concern is besides pulling Beijing and Pyongyang closer, peculiarly arsenic the US strengthens its subject practice with South Korea and Japan, and the 3 countries regularly behaviour associated exercises and stock intelligence.

Pak Thae Song, centre, the North Korean premier, is seen disconnected astatine the Pyongyang International Airport, up of an authoritative sojourn to China, successful Pyongyang, connected Friday, July 10, 2026 [Jon Chol Jin/AP]

Tokyo is besides expanding defence spending, overmuch to the chagrin of China owed to accepted fears astir an expansionist Japan. Meanwhile, South Korea continues to big tens of thousands of American troops, which China sees arsenic portion of a US-led effort to incorporate it. North Korea sees these acts arsenic preparations for war.

While China and North Korea’s menace perceptions are not identical, they bash overlap, and due to the fact that of this Beijing has focused connected demonstrating a beardown unified beforehand with Pyongyang, adjacent arsenic it expands its ties elsewhere.

Necessity, not sentiment

This confederation is improbable to look the aforesaid implicit the adjacent 65 years. North Korea seems to beryllium increasing much assured by strengthening its narration with Moscow and taking a little conciliatory attack to some South Korea and the US.

China is much almighty globally, but besides has much to suffer from instability connected the Korean Peninsula.

That changing dynamic has go progressively visible. In the past, Beijing publically expressed vexation implicit North Korea’s atomic and rocket tests, portion calling connected Pyongyang to instrumentality to dialogue. More recently, however, China’s disapproval has go muted.

On his caller sojourn to Pyongyang, Xi Jinping did not notation atomic weapons astatine all. Beijing appears progressively reluctant to propulsion Kim further into Vladimir Putin’s arms done criticising his weapons programme.

As China continues to physique its diplomatic power and pushes to reshape the satellite bid into 1 wherever the US and its allies are little dominant, it indispensable onslaught a delicate equilibrium – basal alongside North Korea successful opposing what it sees arsenic Western hegemony, but region itself from the precise behaviours that marque Pyongyang a pariah state.