Saudi Arabia shuts critical oil pipeline after drone attack: What it means

Saudi Arabia has temporarily closed its captious East-West lipid pipeline, a 1,200km (746-mile) conduit stretching crossed the Arabian Peninsula, aft it was attacked by drones connected Friday.

The drones were reported to person been launched from Iraq, wherever an probe is nether way. No radical has claimed work for the strikes truthful far.

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Plumes of fume from a conception of the pipeline could beryllium seen connected video footage from the area. It is understood that instrumentality utilized to run the pipeline was besides hit.

The closure of the pipeline has halted the travel of Saudi lipid exports, which person besides been disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since March. A captious artery for the kingdom’s vigor exports, it has go each the much important owed to the US-Israel warfare connected Iran.

The closure of its pipeline comes arsenic Saudi Arabia is drawn into a caller beforehand successful the Middle East struggle successful Yemen, wherever Houthi forces have made accelerated advances on the seashore against the Saudi-backed Yemeni authorities and seized the strategical land of Mayun successful the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

Here’s what we cognize astir the closure of Saudi’s East-West pipeline and what it means for planetary vigor security:

What has Saudi Arabia announced?

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs connected Friday said the East-West lipid pipeline, which crosses the state from Saudi’s Abqaiq oilfield successful the eastbound to the Yanbu larboard connected the Red Sea successful the west, had been deed successful the Riyadh and Medina areas by drones, causing injuries and damage.

The pipeline, which is operated by the bulk state-owned Saudi Aramco, has been temporarily unopen arsenic a “precaution”, according to the country’s Ministry of Energy. Specialised teams person begun steps to “secure the pipeline and measure its safety”, the ministry said.

Where did the drone onslaught travel from and who launched it?

The onslaught originated successful the southeastern Iraqi state of Maysan, according to the bureau of Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi.

No radical has claimed work for the attack, and neither Saudi Arabia nor the Iraqi authorities person publically identified a radical they fishy of being down it.

Iraq is location to galore Iran-backed equipped groups, however.

Wolfgang Pusztai, a information argumentation and defence analyst, told Al Jazeera that the drone strikes connected Saudi Arabia’s lipid pipeline had astir apt been carried retired by 1 of these groups.

“I judge this [attack] was astir apt an bid from Tehran. From Tehran’s constituent of view, this is them supporting Yemen’s Houthi warfare objective, which is for Saudi Arabia to retreat from Yemen,” helium said.

Iran-backed groups are calculating that the much unit Saudi Arabia feels from attacks connected its territory, the much apt it is to retreat from Yemen, wherever the Houthi rebels warring the internationally recognised authorities are backed by Iran, said Pusztai.

“On the different side, this surely sharpens Iran’s ain blockade implicit the Strait of Hormuz due to the fact that Tehran does not let Saudi Arabia to bypass the Strait of Hormuz immoderate more. This signals to Saudi Arabia – and astir apt to the different Gulf states – that Iran can’t beryllium trusted.”

How has Iraq responded?

The Iraqi authorities formally condemned the attack, saying it does not judge its territory being utilized arsenic a “launchpad for attacks against immoderate nation” and that it would instrumentality “legal enactment against anyone proven to beryllium involved”.

Iraq’s premier curate has ordered a probe into the Maysan operations command, which oversees information successful the state Baghdad says the onslaught came from, and has dismissed its commander.

Iraq has besides ordered the closure of the Shalamcheh borderline crossing betwixt Iraq and Iran arsenic a precautionary measure, 2 information sources told Reuters connected Saturday.

(Al Jazeera)

Will Saudi Arabia respond?

So far, Saudi Arabia has opted not to retaliate. In a statement, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it would clasp disconnected connected responding “at this stage” astatine the petition of the Iraqi premier minister.

However, Riyadh said it reserves the close to “take ⁠all measures necessary” to support its interests.

In July, the United States and Saudi Arabia launched associated attacks connected the Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) successful Iraq, sidesplitting astatine slightest 20 members of the group, aft Saudi Arabia claimed it launched drone attacks connected its lipid facilities.

Iraq’s National Security Council, chaired by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, called the attacks connected the PMF bases successful 7 Iraqi provinces “a flagrant usurpation of Iraq’s sovereignty and the sanctity of its lands”.

Abdulaziz Alghashian, a elder nonresident chap astatine the Gulf International Forum deliberation tank, said Saudi Arabia, which precocious signed a defence pact with Turkiye and Pakistan, is apt to yet retaliate, perchance successful coordination with different determination allies.

Alghashian told Al Jazeera that helium would not expect overmuch from the Saudi-Turkiye-Pakistan Mecca defence pact announced successful August, for now, arsenic it is “still nether construction”, but that determination could inactive beryllium immoderate signifier of “multilateral response”.

“I deliberation we’re going to spot much escalation successful the portion and much subject confrontation,” said Alghashian. “The question is conscionable the grade of it”.

How important is the closure of this pipeline?

Extremely.

The East-West pipeline has ⁠been moving 4 cardinal to 5 cardinal barrels of lipid per time (bpd) successful caller months, amounting to 4 to 5 percent of planetary supply, according to information cited by Reuters. It had accrued capableness specifically to assistance mitigate the disruption to Saudi lipid exports successful the Strait of Hormuz.

While lipid exports stay acold beneath mean successful the conflict-hit Strait of Hormuz, the closure of the East-West pipeline is expected to make much symptom for planetary energy, arsenic US diesel prices hit an all-time high and Brent crude lipid – the planetary benchmark – presently costs much than $104 per barrel, accidental analysts.

Before the US-Israeli warfare connected Iran commenced connected February 28, Brent crude was trading astatine astir $72 per barrel. Early successful the conflict, it deed a precocious of $119.

“This is simply a existent blow,” Ben Cahill, a elder chap astatine the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, told Al Jazeera, referring to the pipeline arsenic Saudi Arabia’s “principal bypass enactment to debar the Strait of Hormuz”.

“The cardinal buffers that got america done the past six months person fundamentally been worn away,” helium said.

Saudi governmental expert Khalid Bartafi told Al Jazeera that the attacks connected the pipeline could origin a situation for the planetary community.

“It’s going to beryllium precise dire consequences due to the fact that we are talking astir 5 cardinal barrels of lipid for export disappearing from the market,” helium said. “The adjacent 48 volition archer you whether this is going to stay immoderate benignant of contained incidental oregon this is going to go yet different large determination escalation.”

He added: “This is not conscionable our problem, it’s a planetary occupation due to the fact that if Iran could adjacent some the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb the satellite volition pay. The satellite assemblage needs to bash something.”

(Al Jazeera)

How rapidly tin the pipeline beryllium reopened?

It is hard to tell.

After a pumping presumption connected the aforesaid pipeline was struck successful April, causing output to autumn to 700,000bpd, Saudi Arabia announced it had been repaired and restored to afloat capableness conscionable 3 days later.

However, Saudi Arabia has not provided details connected the grade of the harm from the latest attack. Satellite images showed fume emerging from an country of the pipeline southbound of Medina. NASA besides detected antithetic thermal enactment successful the area.

A outer representation shows achromatic fume rising from an country of Saudi Arabia’s East-West lipid pipeline southbound of Medina, Hejaz region, connected September 10, 2026 [European Union/Copernicus Sentinel-3/Handout via Reuters]

What different options does Saudi Arabia person for its lipid exports?

None that tin readily compensate for the nonaccomplishment of the pipeline.

With exports hugely restricted successful the Strait of Hormuz, the East-West pipeline had served arsenic Saudi Arabia’s main bypass route, bringing crude lipid from eastbound Saudi Arabia westward to the Red Sea larboard of Yanbu.

That means Saudi Arabia cannot simply redirect the aforesaid eastbound crude to Yanbu portion the pipeline is shut. Meanwhile, it tin effort to marque greater usage of existing stocks successful the west, but the Houthis’ newfound power of Yemen’s Red Sea seashore and Mayun island, besides known arsenic Perim island, successful the Bab al-Mandeb strait could airs further challenges to getting that lipid retired – adjacent if longer journeys astir South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope are viable.

As a result, Saudi Arabia volition apt reroute much exports done Egypt via the Suez Canal oregon the Sumed pipeline, a 320km (199-mile) pipeline carrying crude lipid from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.

Cahill added that the closure of the East-West pipeline could person ripple effects crossed an already squeezed planetary vigor market.

“There’s little slack successful the system, everything is moving hot,” said Cahill. If attacks proceed and determination is “any existent menace that the Red Sea is going to beryllium chopped disconnected for immoderate time”, helium added, it would mean further upward unit connected prices.