Rob Breakenridge: Smith’s referendum risks backfiring, handing power to the NDP

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith Photo by Brent Calver/Postmedia

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CALGARY — It’s possible that by this time next year, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will be cruising toward re-election, thanks in part to a strong economy, final approval of a new pipeline and a vanquished separatist threat that’s been left firmly in the rearview mirror.

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All of that, of course, is yet to be determined. As evidenced by the recent NDP win in the Calgary-Shaw byelection, re-election is no sure thing for the United Conservative Party. Moreover, there’s no guarantee that Smith will even be at the helm of the party 12 months from now.

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There is much at stake in Monday’s referendum, not the least of which is the future of Canada. But even a vote for Confederation might not be enough to prevent the UCP from tearing itself apart and dragging conservatism down with it in the process.

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Going into Monday, the polls suggest that the federalist side is leading by a substantial margin. It’s possible that the surveys are missing something, but the numbers have been remarkably consistent for some time, across multiple polling firms. In fact, the latest numbers from veteran Alberta pollster Janet Brown show a slight drop in support for separation. We’ll find out for sure on Monday.

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If, somehow, separatists can muster 50 per cent, then all bets are off. That would unleash all sorts of chaos and uncertainty and would likely bring a very abrupt end to Smith’s tenure as premier.

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Conversely, if separatist support is in the low teens — or even lower — then the movement would be pretty much dead on arrival. Separatist leaders have vowed to press on no matter what, but it’s hard to see much of a path forward in that scenario.

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In between, though, is where the uncertainty lies. If support for the separatist option is in the 30s or higher — or even above the 28 per cent the Parti Québécois won in the recent Quebec election — that would likely be enough to keep the issue at the forefront. More to the point, it would also help the movement mount a serious challenge to Smith’s leadership and the direction of the UCP.

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This, ultimately, is where the potential lies for a major, perhaps even a generational, setback for conservatism in Alberta. The shock waves and shrapnel might not be confined to Alberta’s borders, either.

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While the polls around the separation question have been more or less static, that hasn’t been the case for the premier’s own approval rating or the head-to-head party numbers. The decision to hold the referendum and to allow the separation can of worms to be opened has turned out to be a gift to the NDP.

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As Smith’s own numbers have declined, the NDP has crept up in the polls to the point where it could conceivably win the next election. Its byelection victory last month in a solid UCP riding demonstrates that this is not merely a hypothetical possibility.

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The formation of the UCP was a direct response to what happened in 2015 and the conditions that split the conservative vote and created an opening for the NDP. The UCP then won in a rout in 2019 and were comfortably re-elected in 2023, despite the NDP vote share in that election exceeding its 2015 share.

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So if the preoccupation with separation has created the conditions in which the NDP could prevail in a two-way race, a separatist-fuelled split on the right could make that a near-certainty.