Preview: Karolina Muchova vs. Jasmine Paolini - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Monday's US Open fourth-round match between Karolina Muchova and Jasmine Paolini should be one of the tournament's finest encounters.

The returning 2023 semi-finalist seeks to outdo her Italian opponent, who recently became the first woman from her country to make it to this stage at all four Majors in a calendar year in the Open Era after her third-round victory over Yulia Putintseva.

---

Match preview

© Imago

Muchova's wrist injury forced her to withdraw from last year's WTA Finals, and subsequent surgery prevented the 2023 US Open semi-finalist from competing in this year's opening two Grand Slams.

She returned to the Tour in the lead-up to Wimbledon only to exit in round one, casting doubts about her before the final Major of 2024.

However, the former World No. 8 has flourished en route to a potential quarter-final in New York, with the highlight of her run a straight-set win over two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka in round two.

The 28-year-old's adeptness at mixing things up on court makes her unpredictable and stands her in good stead against the No. 5 seed in Monday's fourth-round tussle.

Despite being ranked World No. 52, Muchova is no stranger to this level, having overcome consecutive round-one exits to reach last year's semis; however, she must elevate her game to match Paolini's ruthless ball-striking.

© Imago

The Italian's 2024 got even better last time out after beating Putintseva for another fourth-round appearance at a Grand Slam, having previously never gone beyond round two at any of the big-four leading events before the turn of the year.

Paolini has built on her run to a fourth match in Australia in January by reaching consecutive finals at the French Open and Wimbledon, even if both resulted in losses.

Although she ranks below Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and defending champion Coco Gauff to win the final Slam of 2024, the World No. 5's incredible year means she cannot be discounted.

The 28-year-old has already eclipsed her previous tournament-exit showings in Queens to being close to a last-eight appearance at a third straight Slam, but she must get through the test of her versatile opponent.

The winner of Monday's match will battle one-time Grand Slam champion and two-time US Open finalist Caroline Wozniacki or Beatriz Haddad Maia in the quarters.

---

Tournament so far

Karolina Muchova:

First round: vs. Katie Volynets 6-3 7-5
Second round: vs. Naomi Osaka 6-3 7-5[5]
Third round: vs. Anastasia Potapova 6-4 6-2

Jasmine Piolini:

First round: vs. Bianca Andreescu 6-7[5] 6-2 6-4
Second round: vs. Karolina Pliskova 0-0 ret.
Third round: vs. Yulia Putintseva 6-3 6-4

---

Head To Head

Manchester (2018) - Round of 32: Muchova 7-6(6) 6-0

US Open (2018) - Qualifying R2: Muchova 7-5 6-2

Gippsland Trophy 2021 Round of 16 (2021) - Round of 16:

Both women have faced each other three times on Tour before their upcoming match-up, with Muchova emerging victorious in all three encounters.

However, much has changed for Paolini since her last loss to the Czech player in 2021, underscored by an incredible performance this year.

Muchova went into the US Open with a 7-3 win-loss record, with Paolini's 31-14.

---

We say: Muchova to win in four sets

While Paolini's battling qualities allied with her admirable year on the Tour give her the best chance of snapping her losing record against Muchova, we are backing the variety of the Czech player to get the better of her higher-ranked opponent.

ID:551990:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect6068:

Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!

---