Preview: Australian Open: Caroline Garcia vs. Naomi Osaka - prediction, form, head-to-head

In a first-round rematch from a twelvemonth ago, erstwhile top-ranked subordinate Naomi Osaka takes connected Caroline Garcia astatine Rod Laver Arena successful the opening lucifer for some women astatine the 2025 Australian Open.

The erstwhile two-time victor of this event, Osaka, was forced to discontinue from the ASB Classic last versus Clara Tauson earlier this month, portion Garcia has not played a singles lawsuit since falling astatine the semi-final signifier of the Guadalajara Open to Magdalena Frech successful September.

Match preview

© Imago

Ranked arsenic precocious arsenic 4th successful the satellite connected the singles broadside astatine 1 point, Garcia had a hard solo twelvemonth successful 2024 connected the Grand Slam circuit, ne'er making it past the 2nd circular successful immoderate of the 4 large tournaments.

The Frech pistillate from Lyon, who made the semi-finals of the Aussie Open connected the doubles broadside successful 2017, has lone been eliminated from the opening circular of this tourney successful the singles lawsuit erstwhile successful her erstwhile 8 appearances, falling to Hailey Baptiste successful 3 sets 3 years agone (2022).

On 4 occasions past year, Garcia mislaid her opening singles lucifer connected the hard court, with the erstwhile clip being astatine the astir caller US Open, wherever Mexico's Renata Zarazua bushed her 1-6, 4-6.

That said, the two-time French Open doubles victor made the semi-finals of her erstwhile hard tribunal singles lawsuit successful September successful Mexico, portion her best-ever decorativeness astatine a Grand Slam singles tourney came connected that aforesaid aboveground successful Flushing Meadows (2022).

Last year, the violative baseliner displayed plentifulness of powerfulness erstwhile connected serve, winning 75.2% of her work games and possessing a first-serve winning percent of 70.7%.

She struggled erstwhile disconnected serve, though, lone claiming 30.7% of her archetypal instrumentality points portion converting less than 40% of her interruption points (39.7%).

© Imago

As we were closing successful connected the extremity of 2024, Naomi Osaka seemed to turn successful confidence, with a brace of coagulated finishes connected the hard court.

She followed up a circular of 16 decision versus Coco Gauff astatine the China Open with a nonaccomplishment to Tauson successful her erstwhile singles event, and was forced to discontinue successful some instances.

Osaka, who won this tourney successful 2021 and 2019, mislaid 4 opening singles matches connected the hard tribunal past year, including astatine this signifier of the erstwhile Aussie Open.

She did, however, marque it beyond circular 1 successful her 3 Grand Slam singles events pursuing that aboriginal exit against Garcia astatine this tourney past twelvemonth but has not made it past the 2nd signifier of her past six majors connected the singles bracket.

The assertive baseline subordinate has been potent with her service this year, winning 89.8% of her work games to this signifier of 2025.

Meanwhile, she has converted astir fractional of her interruption constituent opportunities (48.6%) portion winning implicit 40% (43.9%) of her instrumentality points this year.

Head To Head

Australian Open (2021) - Second Round: Osaka wins 6-2 6-3

Australian Open (2024) - First Round: Garcia wins 6-4 7-6(2)

Qatar Total Energies Open (2024) - First Round: Osaka wins 7-5 6-4

Miami Open (2024) - Third Round: Garcia wins 7-6(4) 7-5

The archetypal gathering betwixt these 2 astatine the 2021 Aussie Open saw Osaka predominate successful archetypal serves, winning 86% of hers, and Garcia claiming a specified 57% successful that department.

Three years later, Garcia claimed triumph successful Melbourne by winning 89% of her archetypal serves, portion her hostile did not triumph a azygous interruption point.

In Qatar earlier this year, the Japanese planetary was 3 for 3 connected interruption points, propelling her to different victory.

Lastly, successful Miami backmost successful March, the French pistillate overcame 4 treble faults, winning 75% of her archetypal serves to beforehand from that contest.

We say: Osaka to triumph successful 2 sets

The erstwhile #1 subordinate seemed to regain assurance adjacent the extremity of the year, and her almighty service could beryllium a fistful for Garcia, who whitethorn beryllium rusty aft a lengthy clip distant from a singles event.

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