Pierre Poilievre’s Ontario problem keeps federal Liberals in 12-point lead

The party's poor performance in Ontario remains a worrying stick in the Tories' craw, pollster says

Published May 26, 2026  •  Last updated 20 minutes ago  •  2 minute read

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Monday, May 25, 2026. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK /Postmedia

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OTTAWA — While the federal Tories maintain strong numbers in western Canada, the Mark Carney Liberals’ dominance in the east is keeping the government in a comfortable 12-point lead.

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According to Liaison Strategies’ latest weekly tracker poll, the Liberals would garner 43% of the vote if a federal election were held today — that’s compared to the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives’ 31%, a 3% drop from numbers published by the polling firm last week.

“The Liberals have widened their lead back to double digits, while the Conservatives have slipped to 31% among decided and leaning voters,” said Liaison principal David Valentin.

“That puts the national race back where it has been for much of the spring: A comfortable Liberal lead, with the Conservatives still searching for a path through Ontario.”

The party’s poor performance in Ontario, Valentin said, remains a worrying stick in the Tories’ craw as they deal with their new reality of being the opposition in Mark Carney’s cobbled-together majority government.

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“The Liberals are at 51% in Ontario, compared to 31% for the Conservatives,” Valentin said.

“When the largest province is producing a 20-point Liberal lead, it becomes very difficult for Conservative strength in Alberta to offset the map.”

Support remains uneven across Canada

Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are the Conservatives’ lone areas where they’re outpacing the Liberals, the poll numbers suggest.

The Tories are currently seeing 38% support in Alberta compared to 33% for the Liberals while seeing a statistical dead heat in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, polling 30% support compared to 28% for the Liberals.

The Liberals are enjoying a narrow edge over the Conservatives in B.C. (31% to 28% support).

It’s a whole different story, however, in Atlantic Canada, where the Liberals are claiming 50% of the vote to the 23% garnered by the Tories, and 33% in Quebec compared to 24% Conservative support, as well as 23% support for the Bloc Quebecois.

“The Conservatives lead in Alberta and are tied with the Liberals in Manitoba and Saskatchewan,” Valentin said.

“That gives the Conservatives some regional strength, but not enough to change the national picture.”

The poll was conducted between May 11 and May 23 among a weighted random sample of 1,526 Canadians, with a margin of error of ±2.51%, 19 times out of 20.

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