Oscars 2026 Race: The Most Surprising Contender Can Upset Sinners and One Battle After Another

With the Oscars approaching, WB boasts a strong lineup, led by Ryan Coogler‘s Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson‘s One Battle After Another, both of which are almost guaranteed to nab a spot in the Best Picture category. However, it appears another WB release could make a surprise entry, as Variety suggests; summer blockbuster F1 is tracking well among old Academy voters, who are reportedly deeming it as “good old-school entertainment”.

Even though Brad Pitt’s F1 doesn’t carry the prestige tag like the rest of the frontrunners, considering it’s proving to be a comfort watch among AMPAS voters, this could secure one of the slots for the Best Picture category. And given how stacked 2025 was in terms of award-worthy releases, if this turns out to be the case, we might be in for some upsets once the final nominations drop next week.

When Will the Oscar Nominations Drop?

The 98th Academy Awards are shaping up to be one of the most competitive in years, and, reasonably, many are eagerly waiting for the final nominations to drop. With voting for nominations now officially closed (January 12-16), the final nominations will be unveiled on January 22 (via The Hollywood Reporter).

Daniel Brooks, who previously landed an Academy nod for her work on The Color Purple, will be joining Lewis Pullman to announce the nominations from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater, starting at 5:30 A.M. PT. The announcement will air live on ABC’s Good Morning America, and viewers will be able to tune in through the Oscars’ official website and other social media platforms, where the ceremony will stream live.

Sinners’ Release Window Could Work Against Its Oscar Prospects

As mentioned before, Sinners, alongside One Battle After Another, is expected to secure a nomination for Best Picture, despite F1‘s potential surprise entry. Although there’s a good chance Coogler’s masterpiece could land 15 nominations and set a new Academy record, its release window might work against its Oscar prospects.

A still from Sinners | Credit: Warner Bros.

Historically, movies that debuted near the Awards season, especially in the October-December window, have fared well at the Oscars and other major Award ceremonies, compared to movies that were released earlier in the year.

Recency bias has long played a major factor, and movies like One Battle After Another and A24’s Marty Supreme, both of which remain fresh in the pop-culture zeitgeist, could benefit from it. Is it unfair for Sinners? Absolutely, and hopefully, Christopher Nolan’s recent support, who hosted a special screening as part of the movie’s Oscar campaign, will help negate the disadvantage that comes with early release windows.

Share your predictions for the Oscars below!

F1 is currently streaming on Apple TV.

Sinners and One Battle After Another are currently streaming on HBO Max.