Northern Ethiopia’s shifting alliances explained

The TPLF, Fano militias and Eritrea are redrawing the conflict lines successful Ethiopia’s north.

Between 2020 and 2022, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fought a bloody warfare against Ethiopia’s national authorities and its allies successful Eritrea and the Amhara militias known arsenic Fano. Less than 4 years later, Ethiopia’s national authorities is accusing those aforesaid erstwhile allies of supporting the TPLF, redrawing the representation of alliances successful bluish Ethiopia.

So who are the actors present confronting Ethiopia’s national authorities successful this renewed conflict?

The TPLF

In March 2025, fighters from the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) led by Debretsion Gebremichael seized the determination vigor presumption and the mayor’s bureau successful Mekele, on with respective towns on the Eritrean border. These included parts of the Sehartie territory and the metropolis of Adigrat, the region’s second-largest colonisation centre, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

The centre besides said Eritrea inactive controls parts of the Irob and Shiraro districts on the border, contempt the bid agreement’s request that each overseas forces retreat from Ethiopian territory.

In October 2025, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the TPLF and Eritrea, successful a missive to the United Nations, of “financing, mobilising and directing” Fano forces that had precocious successful the North Wollo area.

Fano militia members patrol the Sangi livestock marketplace successful Ethiopia’s Amhara portion connected January 23, 2025 [AP]

In the missive to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Ethiopia’s overseas curate said the alleged coordination had “become clearer successful caller months” and accused “the hardline faction wrong the beforehand and the Eritrean government” of preparing for warfare against Ethiopia.

The Ethiopian paper Addis Standard reported that the missive besides accused the 2 sides of supporting an effort by Fano forces to prehend the metropolis of Weldiya successful the Amhara portion successful September, and said TPLF leaders and fighters had taken portion straight successful the operation.

Debretsion rejected the allegations, saying the missive contained “fabricated stories and smear campaigns” intended to divert attraction from what helium described arsenic the national government’s nonaccomplishment to honour the bid agreement. He called it “a unsafe reversal of history, an effort to represent the aggressor arsenic the unfortunate and the victims arsenic aggressors”, adding that the national authorities was grooming caller militias to destabilise Tigray.

Fano militias

Fano is an irregular Amhara nationalist militia web with nary azygous cardinal leadership. It emerged successful its existent signifier during protests successful Ethiopia’s Amhara portion successful 2016.

The BBC has described Fano’s trajectory arsenic a displacement “from confederation to rupture”. The militias were erstwhile allied with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s authorities against the TPLF, earlier rejecting efforts to disarm them and saying they were defending the Amhara radical against what they described arsenic authorities abuses.

The BBC besides reported that Fano appears to beryllium expanding its docket towards the removal of Abiy Ahmed’s authorities and is carrying retired progressively deadly operations.

Eritrea

On February 3, Ethiopia’s national authorities acknowledged for the archetypal clip that Eritrean forces had participated successful the Tigray war, saying they were liable for wide killings, the demolition of homes and the looting of factories.

The Associated Press reported that Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel rejected the allegations, describing them arsenic “cheap and despicable lies”.

Tigrayan fighters locomotion successful enactment successful Mekele, the superior of Ethiopia’s Tigray region, connected June 30, 2021 [Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP]

Days later, Addis Ababa called connected Eritrea to “withdraw its forces from Ethiopian territory”. Asmara responded that the accusations were “false and blatantly fabricated” and “another occurrence successful a signifier of hostile campaigns against Eritrea for much than 2 years”, adding that it had nary tendency for “a meaningless quality that would further inflame the situation”.

Eritrea besides accused Addis Ababa of seeking entree to the Eritrean larboard of Assab, saying the 2 governments had cooperated against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 warfare earlier their narration deteriorated implicit the bid agreement, from which Eritrea was excluded.

The determination dimension

The International Crisis Group places these alignments wrong a broader determination context. It says Abiy Ahmed is adjacent to determination actors who enactment Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) successful its warfare against the Sudanese army, portion Eritrea has aligned itself with the Sudanese service and established ties with Egypt, an hostile of Addis Ababa due to the fact that of the quality implicit Nile h2o resources.

Fighting erupted successful occidental Tigray earlier this week, with the Ethiopian authorities and the TPLF trading accusations implicit who initiated the clashes.