Nico Johnson: Danielle Smith’s regrettable referendum

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at a press conference at McDougall Centre in Calgary on May 22, 2026. Photo by Dean Pilling /Postmedia

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Alberta Premier Danielle Smith would’ve done well to have spoken to David Cameron before she committed to plunging Alberta — and by default, the country — into what may become a distressing seccessionist battle. “You could unleash demons of which ye know not,” he said portentously, before calling the vote on Britain’s EU membership. He, too, thought the referendum was necessary; that the threat of separation would strengthen his hand against Brussels, and that the continuity of the status quo was inevitable.

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A decade later, the demons that referendum unleashed are incredible. The United Kingdom abandoned its membership of the European Union, only to now attempt reentry by stealth a decade later. David Cameron resigned, followed by years of political chaos, breeding ever more discontent. Now, the recent local elections suggest Britain’s ancient two-party system will disintegrate in front of our eyes. How Cameron must wish for a time machine.

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No two referendums are the same, of course. And many will consider the analogy between Britain and Alberta to be hysterical. For one, Alberta’s vote is actually a referendum on whether the province should hold a referendum — a clumsy gambit by Smith to delay the inevitable reckoning. It is also much more traumatic for a province to sever itself from its country, rather than a state merely abandoning its membership in a supranational organization.

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Similarly, local frustration with the incompetence of the capital is hardly a substitute for nationalism. Neither should petro-enthusiasm warrant the creation of a new country. And although Alberta’s culture may be distinct from Toronto or Ottawa, those differences pale in comparison to those of Scotland from England; Catalonia from Madrid, and more obviously, Quebec from English Canada.

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But referendums have a habit of producing strange results. This is especially true when the question posed to the public becomes larger than the words written on the ballot paper. By now, even the most eurosceptic members of the British commentariat accept their referendum was fought on immigration and general malaise, rather than a deep concern over Brussels’ zealous regulation, or the population’s desire to create a Singapore-upon-Thames. The same thing will be true in Alberta. For those unhappy many who have seen their living standards plummet under Trudeau’s vandalism, or who have suffered through a decade of political hostility to Canada’s energy industry, the desire to send a message to Ottawa may be just too attractive to resist.

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If the referendum were held today, a significant, but by not means, large, minority of Albertans would vote for independence. In March, Abacus Data reported that 26 per cent of the population strongly supported the idea. But this is already a strong foundation from which a movement can grow, and may not fully caputre those who will use the referendum as a protest. As the campaign builds and the media cycle accelerates, more and more Albertans will come across neighbours and friends supporting separatism. A political movement that once only flourished on the dustier corners of Twitter will become grounded in reality.