NHL Playoffs Game 5 preview: Why the under 6.5 is the play for Ducks vs. Golden Knights tonight

We are deep into the NHL Playoffs, but I haven't been doing a great job of putting out plays on the games. With the NBA Playoffs and baseball every day, it has been more sporadic than I like. However, I've still been tracking the games and trying to find the right spots to share looks. I have a play in tonight's game between the Ducks and Golden Knights in Game 5.

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The Anaheim Ducks are a bit of a surprise team as they ended their year 43-33-6 and in third place in the Pacific Division. Last season, they were under .500, and they hadn't even been to the postseason since 2017-18. They were swept out of the playoffs that year. Joel Quenneville has made a great impact on the team, taking them from a league doormat to a winner in just about a year.

Anaheim Ducks goaltender Lukas Dostal makes a glove save in the first period of an NHL game against the Colorado Avalanche in Denver on Nov. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

In the first-round series, the Ducks battled Edmonton and won in six games. It was a bit of an unexpected win for the Ducks, considering the Oilers were one of the more talented teams in the league. In this series, the two teams have alternated wins and losses. Tonight, they are expected to have Lukas Dostal in the net. He was 30-20-4 for the year with 3.10 goals allowed per game and a .888 save percentage. He hasn't been perfect by any means, allowing 29 goals in 231 attempts. He was pulled in Game 3 as he allowed three goals in the first period.

The Vegas Golden Knights led the Pacific Division this season with a 39-26-17 record. They first came into the league in 2017, and instantly made the playoffs before losing to the Capitals in the Stanley Cup Final. They have been in the postseason in all but one of the years they've been in existence. There is also a Stanley Cup in their trophy case in that span.

Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Alex Pietrangelo celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal against the Edmonton Oilers during the third period of game two of the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev., on May 8, 2025. (Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images)

This year hasn't been a smooth ride in the postseason. They faced the Utah Mammoth in the first round, beating them in six games. However, two of those four wins came in overtime. That's typically where experience matters, but obviously, there is a bit of luck there, too. Their losses were fairly close as well. In their two wins in this series, they've covered the puckline. Tonight's goalie is probably going to be Carter Hart, who has started all of the Knights' postseason games. He has allowed 27 goals this postseason, but he has made 283 stops and saved about 91% of the shots.

This has been a pretty entertaining series, and we know this is a pivotal Game 5. According to a quick search, NHL teams in a 2-2 series winning Game 5 win the series about 82% of the time. That makes winning this game even more crucial. Unfortunately, I don't have a look for who wins because I think this is a toss-up. The Ducks are a good value at +136, though.

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Lukas Dostal of the Anaheim Ducks adjusts his goalie mask during the second period against the Calgary Flames at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., on Dec. 21, 2023. (Nicole Vasquez/NHLI)

My play in this one is the under 6.5. There have been five home games for Vegas this postseason, and only one has gone over tonight's posted total. The past two games have seen at least seven goals, and maybe that's because they've found holes in each other's defense. I think this game is too important, and the teams will be cautious. Give me the under.

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