Netanyahu’s political future looks uncertain. His rivals still won’t count him out

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Along with an established party apparatus, Netanyahu’s three decades in politics also brings other political advantages, not least of which is a solid base of support.

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“On his base, the main sentiment is of love for the person. It is familial — not familiar, but familial,” said Hermann. “It’s like if you have a father that made some major mistake or even committed a crime, it’s still in a very tight family.”

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“Unless there is some dark horse around the corner” Netanyahu is seen as “irreplaceable” by his supporters, Hermann noted. “The people who hate him actually hate his guts, but still recognize his qualifications, so everyone agrees that none of the candidates that are running for office right now are of his calibre, and this is shared by his rivals, or even enemies, and his supporters.”

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Netanyahu will most likely be “stuck with” the leaders of Israel’s extreme-right parties, who serve in the current administration, Hermann said. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has overseen surge of settlement construction in the West Bank amid mounting violence, and national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was convicted of anti-Arab incitement in 2007, were brought in after moderate and centrist parties refused to work with him.

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“(Ben-Gvir) is really pushing Netanyahu into making decisions and taking actions that were unthought of,” said Hermann. “Netanyahu doesn’t like him, nor Smotrich, but he didn’t have any other possibility.”

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“In order to replace them, he should bring over party leaders from the other side, and doesn’t look as if he is going to get it,” she added.

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A poll last week by Israel’s Channel 12 found that 59 per cent of those surveyed feel Netanyahu should not run for re-election, while 33 per cent said he should. Another 8 per cent were not sure.

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Any credible opposition would likely have to ally with religious parties, according to Robinson. But Eisenkot, Bennett and Lieberman, a nationalist who represents voters from the former Soviet Union, have so far ruled out aligning with Arab and ultrareligious parties.

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No Israeli party has won an outright majority in parliament, which requires securing 61 out of 120 seats to form government. Under its tradition of multi-party politics, smaller parties yield concessions on pet issues in return for their support.

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“The major small parties that you would want or probably need in a coalition are the religious parties, and that’s a very volatile issue,” said Robinson.

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In 2022, Netanyahu regained power after 18 months in opposition after his conservative Likud Party formed a coalition with five right-wing and ultrareligious parties. The latest crisis in his camp came after two ultra-Orthodox parties left over his failure to legalize decades-old exemptions for religious students from mandatory conscription. The ultra-Orthodox community currently has 18 seats in parliament.

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“(Netanyahu) is cautious not to push this draft issue on the agenda, because he doesn’t want to alienate the ultra-Orthodox, and the ultra-Orthodox are strong,” said Nikolenyi.

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“So long as he has that, and the support of the religious Zionist community, which is kind of unshakable, because these parties have nowhere else to go — they will never support anyone to the left of Netanyahu — Netanyahu kind of has them has that corner fairly, fairly well guaranteed for him,” Nikolenyi said.

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Any politician looking to build a stable coalition will have to approach religious parties, Robinson said.

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“And these parties will tell whoever it is, be it Netanyahu, be it Eisenkot, whoever it is … ‘You’ve got to give us what we want,’ and now the negotiation becomes, do you get 100 per cent of what you want? Do you get 80 per cent of what you want? What are the parameters,” he explained.

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“That’s all backroom politics, and Israelis are used to it.”

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