Mapping the Iran war’s strikes on Gulf energy – and what comes next for oil

Six months into the warfare connected Iran, the largest US lipid companies person posted their biggest profits since 2022, selling little lipid astatine acold higher prices. But the struggle is besides putting their longstanding Gulf investments astatine risk, exposing the industry’s uneasy equilibrium betwixt wartime gains and mounting geopolitical vulnerability for investors worldwide.

Since the warfare began connected February 28, Brent crude has risen astir 22 percent, from $72 to $88 a barrel.

The Strait of Hormuz – done which one-fifth of the world’s lipid and earthy state was shipped earlier the warfare – remains mostly closed to commercialized traffic, though Iran and Oman agreed past week connected a impermanent maritime route. Iran says the strait volition not afloat reopen until the United States fulfils its commitments nether a lapsed interim bid deal, leaving longer-term information and absorption arrangements unresolved.

In the lack of a lasting resolution, the disruption is apt to proceed supporting higher vigor prices and creating windfalls for producers, contempt placing vigor companies’ determination assets and aboriginal projects astatine greater risk.

Rahul Choudhary, vice president of Upstream Research astatine Rystad Energy, an autarkic vigor probe company, said the struggle has already reduced the magnitude of lipid and state US vigor firms are drafting from the Gulf region.

“Overall we expect US companies’ stock of state supplies [from the region] to autumn by astir 40 percent this twelvemonth compared to past twelvemonth [and] the stock of lipid supplies to driblet by 30-35 percent,” helium told Al Jazeera.

While higher commodity prices person helped offset the contiguous fiscal impact, Choudhary said prolonged disruption is apt to hold large projects and measurement connected the aboriginal maturation plans of US lipid and state companies with a beingness successful the region.

Who has profited?

The surge successful the lipid terms since aboriginal March, erstwhile Iran archetypal closed the Strait of Hormuz, has delivered a windfall for lipid companies, but gains person been tempered by challenges successful the Gulf.

Chevron has constricted vulnerability to Arab Gulf proviso disruptions, with the portion accounting for conscionable 5 percent of its full planetary output. The radical reported its highest quarterly nett successful six years of $12bn successful adjusted net connected July 31.

Gas prices astatine a Chevron presumption successful downtown Los Angeles, California, US [File: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images/Reuters]

ExxonMobil, by contrast, has been acold much exposed to disruption successful the Middle East, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks connected US-linked infrastructure successful the portion affecting its operations successful Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which unneurotic relationship for 20 percent of its planetary equity upstream supply, according to Choudhary.

“We already saw successful H1 [the archetypal fractional of] 2026, the company’s upstream net dropped by astir $1.3bn compared to H1 2025, owed to little upstream volumes from the Middle East. However, the shortfall was covered good by higher commodity prices,” Choudhary said.

The opposition highlights a broader disagreement betwixt those US vigor companies which person benefitted from tighter planetary proviso – and the corresponding emergence successful the lipid terms – and those with assets, partnerships oregon operations successful the Gulf astatine greater hazard of disruption caused by caller attacks connected vigor facilities.

Where are US vigor companies exposed successful the Gulf?

The Gulf’s vigor assemblage is dominated by state-owned giants specified arsenic Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and QatarEnergy.

Although these nationalist lipid and state companies clasp power implicit the region’s reserves and halfway infrastructure, US vigor firms person carved retired strategical positions crossed the region.

US companies make gross done stakes successful accumulation assets, associated ventures, accumulation agreements, refining and petrochemical projects, arsenic good arsenic done semipermanent contracts to supply equipment, engineering and operational expertise.

ExxonMobil has immoderate of the largest US commercialized interests successful the Gulf.

The institution has been a large spouse successful Qatar’s LNG assemblage for decades, holding stakes successful respective QatarEnergy LNG associated ventures linked to the enlargement of the North Field. The tract is the Qatari conception of the North Field-South Pars structure, the world’s largest earthy state field, which Qatar shares with Iran, wherever it is known arsenic South Pars. ExxonMobil besides holds an involvement successful the UAE’s Upper Zakum offshore oilfield alongside ADNOC.

(Al Jazeera)

Similarly, ConocoPhillips joined the North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) enlargement projects with QatarEnergy successful 2022 to summation export capableness astatine Ras Laffan.

The US group, Occidental Petroleum, has go 1 of the largest overseas producers successful Oman, operating the Mukhaizna dense oilfield, the country’s biggest producing oilfield. It besides holds interests successful UAE state and pipeline projects.

Chevron maintains a smaller but strategically important Gulf footprint. Through Saudi Arabian Chevron, the institution operates lipid assets successful the Saudi-Kuwait Partitioned Zone, including the Wafra field. In July, it said it was exploring imaginable routes to determination Iraqi crude to Mediterranean export terminals, which could trim reliance connected the Strait of Hormuz.

Where person attacks connected vigor facilities taken place?

According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a US-registered autarkic struggle monitor, Iran and Iran-backed groups successful the portion person carried retired astatine slightest 172 attacks connected nonmilitary infrastructure crossed the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries since the US and Israel launched their warfare connected February 28.

Energy infrastructure has been deed hardest, with lipid and state facilities, on with powerfulness plants and desalination plants, accounting for astir fractional (48 percent) of each strikes connected nonmilitary targets.

The UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain person suffered the highest fig of palmy strikes, with the bulk aimed astatine lipid and state facilities.

Among the sites that person been struck are Kuwait’s Mina Abdullah and Mina al-Ahmadi refineries, the Bahrain Petroleum Company lipid refinery, and ADNOC’s al-Ruwais Industrial City and the Habshan state complex.

There person besides been respective strikes connected Saudi Aramco facilities, astir precocious a drone strike connected July 27 connected the Abqaiq processing complex, 1 of the astir captious nodes successful Saudi Arabia’s lipid infrastructure, processing much than 7 cardinal barrels of lipid per day.

Nasser Khdour, Middle East adjunct probe manager astatine ACLED, said: “Oil and state facilities, powerfulness plants and h2o desalination plants are apt to stay cardinal targets for Iran due to the fact that disruption to these sectors tin summation economical unit connected Gulf states, portion disruption to planetary vigor supplies increases prices and unit connected the US during periods of escalation.”

In March, a drone onslaught adjacent to the Saudi Aramco-ExxonMobil SAMREF refinery successful Yanbu disrupted lipid loading astatine the city’s Red Sea port. While the onslaught had lone minimal operational impact, it highlighted the vulnerability of US-linked vigor assets successful the region.

Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest LNG export hub, which hosts large associated ventures betwixt QatarEnergy, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, besides came nether repeated onslaught successful March, astatine 1 constituent forcing the works to halt accumulation entirely. In June, an detonation arsenic a effect of a “technical malfunction” connected Qatar’s Barzan state project, wherever ExxonMobil holds a stake, killed astatine slightest 13 people.

“In presumption of state assets being impacted, large blows person been [dealt to] companies [that are] portion of LNG projects successful Qatar: ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips,” Choudhary said.

He added that ExxonMobil’s stock of LNG proviso from Qatar is expected to autumn importantly this twelvemonth to astir 4 cardinal tonnes compared with 13 cardinal tonnes past year, portion ConocoPhillips has besides experienced reduced volumes to 1 cardinal tonnes this twelvemonth compared with 2.5 cardinal tonnes past year.

The attacks connected Qatar’s LNG infrastructure could person longer-term consequences. Damage to LNG trains astatine Ras Laffan could instrumentality years to repair, according to QatarEnergy, portion delays to Qatar’s North Field enlargement projects could propulsion backmost planned proviso growth.

“The onslaught connected LNG trains 4 and 6 astatine Rasgas damaged astir 13 cardinal tonnes of capacity, which volition instrumentality anyplace betwixt 3 to 5 years to travel backmost online with a full repair outgo estimation of astir $3bn,” said Choudhary.

He added that the 2nd astir impacted state task has been the Shah state task successful the UAE, successful which Occidental Petroleum has a 40-percent involvement and wherever drone attacks successful March caused a occurrence astatine the state works that halted operations.

The struggle has besides affected ExxonMobil’s lipid interests successful the UAE, Choudhary said. Production from Upper Zakum, wherever ExxonMobil has a 28 percent stake, was reduced betwixt March and May erstwhile export routes were disrupted, limiting the quality to determination offshore crude.

Beyond the UAE, the astir important interaction connected US companies’ oilfield operations played retired successful Iraq. A drone onslaught deed the Sarsang oilfield successful March, followed by an detonation astatine 1 of its retention facilities successful April, unneurotic causing harm to the field.

Looking ahead, Choudhary said higher prices could enactment currency flows, but prolonged struggle risks could endanger aboriginal growth. ExxonMobil’s $10bn Upper Zakum and Qatar LNG expansions could look delays, portion ConocoPhillips remains exposed done investments successful higher-risk markets, including its planned 42-percent involvement successful BP’s Kirkuk operations successful Iraq.

“For companies similar Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, whose beingness are successful little volatile countries similar Israel and Oman respectively, the interaction of escalations volition not beryllium arsenic severe, arsenic we person not seen important disruption successful these countries,” said Choudhary.

US oilfield work companies successful the Gulf

Oilfield work giants, including US firms SLB (formerly Schlumberger), Halliburton and Baker Hughes, supply drilling technologies, instrumentality and operational expertise crossed the Gulf, supporting Saudi Aramco, ADNOC and QatarEnergy.

For oilfield work companies, the outlook is mixed, according to Chinmayi Teggi, vigor probe expert astatine Rystad Energy, a probe group. While higher lipid prices and vigor information concerns could assistance request implicit time, near-term margins stay nether unit from higher logistical costs, supply-chain disruptions and delayed projects.

“For the Big Three (SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton), the struggle continues to measurement connected determination revenues,” Teggi told Al Jazeera, adding that second-quarter Middle East revenues were down 8-10 percent compared with the erstwhile twelvemonth crossed the 3 companies, portion higher lipid prices meant revenues were higher successful different geographies.

However, a betterment successful suspended operations and accumulation could assistance thrust maturation into 2027.

For US companies, therefore, the Gulf remains some an accidental and a risk.

“The interaction connected US companies volition beryllium connected the grade of vulnerability and countries successful which these companies are present,” Choudhary said.

Their investments person secured US entree to immoderate of the world’s astir important lipid and LNG projects, but the struggle has exposed the hazard of operating successful a portion wherever vigor infrastructure has go progressively susceptible to geopolitical conflict.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned Iran against restricting entree to the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that the waterway indispensable stay unfastened to planetary commerce.

But for companies with billions of dollars invested crossed the Gulf, the situation isn’t conscionable astir keeping shipments moving – it is ensuring the infrastructure remains secure, they say.