MacDougall: Jagmeet Singh had to ditch Trudeau, but it won't help him

Even as they struggle to build a fresh identity, Singh and the NDP must explain why they supported Trudeau in the first place.

Published Sep 05, 2024  •  3 minute read

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh joined locked out rail workers on the first day of a nationwide rail strike in August. Singh announced his political break-up with the federal Liberals Wednesday. Photo by Ryan Remiorz /The Canadian Press

At some point, every baby bird gets pushed out of the nest to see if it can fly. Welcome to the ground now rushing your way, Jagmeet Singh.

Of course, we already know the federal NDP leader couldn’t fly, what with him having smacked to Earth by dropping from 39 to 24 NDP seats in the 2019 federal election. And while Singh did pick up one more in 2021, it was on a measly return of 17.8 per cent of the vote when Justin Trudeau could only pull 32.6 per cent himself.

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“But this is 2024!” the NDP is now saying. “Things are different this time!”

Many things are different, the most salient difference being that Pierre Poilievre now leads the Conservative Party and his party is polling north of 40 per cent. Another thing that’s different is support for Trudeau and the Liberal Party. It’s now down around 25 per cent, and those dropped points aren’t in Singh’s column. Whatever Canadians don’t like in Trudeau isn’t manifesting itself in any fervour for Singh or his NDP.

And while it’s true the Liberal government wouldn’t have moved on files such as pharmacare and dental care without the NDP’s urging, the credit — if there is any to be had in voters’ minds — will accrue to the people who actually drafted the legislation to get them done. That’s not Singh.

This is to presume anyone in Canada is massively exercised by teeth and drugs at the minute. In the hierarchy of Canadian needs in 2024, many more basic ones remain unaddressed, particularly for the people whom previous generations of NDP leaders would have recognized as the working class. Economically disadvantaged Canadians — most of whom don’t work at desks staring at computer screens — are looking for hope and new leadership. And the name they’re flirting with doesn’t rhyme with Singh, either.

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A look at Singh’s social media post announcing the end of his “supply and confidence” arrangement with Team Trudeau shows why that might be. For one, it was posted to social media, not done in the real world in front of, say, workers. Second, Singh is also pledging to fight for the “middle class,” a group many people think they’re in but actually aren’t, not because they’re too poor to qualify, but because they’re too rich. The middle class is certainly cheesed off, but has never cast a ballot for a party that is still identified as “socialist” in the public imagination.

Most importantly, Singh’s attacks on Poilievre don’t ring as true as the latter’s attacks on the former. Nobody with functioning eyes or ears is going to think Poilievre is beholden to big corporate interests, as the NDP accuse. Here, Singh is relying on a Mulroney-era stereotype that is massively out of date. But they will listen to Poilievre slam Singh’s Rolexes and well-cut suits and think the “socialist” guy might not identify with their cause — especially when the guy slamming him is dressed in a simple T-shirt with a slogan saying he’ll “axe” the carbon tax.

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But that’s not even the NDP’s biggest problem. The biggest hurdle the NDP will now have to clear is the fact it has supported Trudeau for the past few years. Every time Singh attacks Trudeau for being “too weak” in the coming weeks and months, voters will counter with the fact that Mr. Weaksauce was still strong enough to tuck Singh into his back pocket. And that Singh didn’t get much in return.

That said, the divorce from Trudeau was necessary if the NDP is to have any hope in the next election. The first step has been taken but the NDP still has all the work to do, whether that’s drumming up donations to fight effectively or a policy to attract new support. And the party has all of that to do with a bird that can’t fly leading their formation.

Jagmeet Singh wants you to thank him the next time you go to the dentist. Poilievre wants you to thank him for a decent wage and the chance to own a home. Guess who is more likely to soar?

Andrew MacDougall is a London-based communications consultant and ex-director of communications to former prime minister Stephen Harper.

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