Lord Ashcroft: Conservatives have work to do to unseat Carney

Having moved away from the woker elements of Justin Trudeau’s agenda and nudged his party towards the centre on issues like immigration, Prime Minister Mark Carney has reassured moderate voters and even impressed some Conservatives, writes pollster Lord Michael Ashford. However, the Liberal coalition has fault lines, he notes. Photo by Dave Chan / AFP via Getty Images)

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AND SO IT CAME TO PASS that after years of liberal overreach, identity politics, open borders and international timidity, a non-politician was swept to power promising to make his country great again, restore its global prestige and put the economy first.

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Yes, Mark Carney and Donald Trump have more in common than either of them would thank you for pointing out. The relationship between their two nations will dominate Canada’s domestic political landscape long after the present incumbent of the White House has left the scene.

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The Trump tariffs and his talk of making Canada the 51st state didn’t just help to swing the 2025 election; they continue to shape Canadian politics. Many see Carney almost as a wartime leader, his economic credentials making him the man for the times. His calm authority serves as its own kind of charisma, and there is wide support for the way he handles his American adversary.

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More broadly, having moved away from the woker elements of Trudeau’s agenda and nudged his party towards the centre on issues like immigration, Carney has reassured moderate voters and even impressed some Conservatives. They like his plans to boost Canada’s economic resilience and energy independence — something they think is long overdue — and to seek wider trading partnerships (even if some quietly wonder how close they really want to get to the People’s Republic of China). Overall, Canadians say the country is on the wrong track by a margin of just seven points — positively jaunty numbers compared to their equivalents in Europe and the U.S.

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The Liberal coalition has fault lines, however. Carney was helped into office by tactical left-wing voters who lent him their support not just to keep Trump at bay but to prevent a Conservative victory. In my research, these voters tended to give the government the benefit of the doubt, at least for now. But many are uncomfortable with the direction of travel. Their concerns focus on the otherwise popular West Coast Oil Pipeline which, they fear, signals a dilution of commitments on the environment and First Nations. These transactional voters are clear that they have made a compromise: their calculation could alter if they believe the centrist tilt goes too far, political circumstances change or the NDP (to which many retain an allegiance despite lending the Liberals their support last year) shows new signs of becoming a credible national force.

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Among voters generally, while Carney and the Liberals enjoy healthy leads on handling tariff negotiations and U.S. relations, things are much more competitive when it comes to bread-and-butter questions like the economy, housing and the cost of living. Carney is currently ahead when we ask people which leader best “understands the lives of people like me,” but fewer than one third of voters think this is actually true of him. If living standards continue to stagnate, it’s easy to see how an air of calm authority could, over time, turn into one of aloof technocracy.

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The Conservatives should be the main beneficiaries of any such shifts, but they have work to do if they are to capitalize. At their best, they are still associated with business, fiscal responsibility, law and order, lower taxes and immigration control. Their most important negative is one of permission rather than persuasion: they are too closely identified with U.S.-style politics. Asked to expand on this in my focus groups, voters talked about an aggressive campaigning style, a taste for culture war issues, or a general MAGA vibe.