Lionel Messi and Argentina face a balanced Switzerland side that could force a World Cup draw

We have reached the final game of the World Cup Quarterfinals. It is hard to believe that this is almost over. I've thoroughly enjoyed watching these games, even if I still feel like soccer could be improved for the American viewer. I know, it isn't all about us, but there are still some things that make it somewhat boring at times. However, when there are tense moments, they are as good as almost any other event you can think of. I think this game will be tighter than the books expect, personally.

In 1996, showing my age here, Madonna had a song called "Don't Cry for Me Argentina". I think it was part of a movie or something, but flash forward 30 years later, and I can't imagine that anyone will be crying for this team.

Lionel Messi (10) of Argentina celebrates scoring his team's second goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 16 match between Argentina and Egypt at Atlanta Stadium on July 7, 2026, in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Their last game was surrounded with questionable calls and what felt like a rigged outcome. Argentina looked like the worse team for about 80 of 90 minutes. The last 10 minutes made a major difference, and I do believe Egypt blew it, but there was clearly some help from the referees.

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Argentina, despite having perhaps the greatest player ever in Lionel Messi, has looked a bit unsteady in the past two games. They struggled to beat Cape Verde, winning 3-2, and as mentioned, were not good against Egypt. Perhaps you can be optimistic and say that despite looking bad, they won both games without needing penalty kicks. I guess I can't argue that point, but sometimes you also look like you're on the verge of a loss because you're going to lose.

On the other side of this match is Switzerland. This is not a team that has received a ton of attention or publicity. They have quietly taken advantage of their opportunities. There is not much flashy about the team, and there really isn't much exciting about them, either. I do think they have a good club, but there is no star power, and even their scoring has been balanced. That isn't a knock; that can just mean they are well-rounded instead of one-dimensional.

Canada's Tani Oluwaseyi, left, is challenged by Switzerland's Silvan Widmer during a match in Vancouver, Canada, on June 24, 2026. (Anne-Marie Sorvin/Imagn Images)

Getting here was a challenge for the Swiss team. They started with a 1-1 draw against Qatar in their Group Stage opener. Then they destroyed Bosnia-Herzegovina 4-1. They beat Canada to close out the Group Stage, and then in the Round of 32, they took down Algeria 2-0. Against Colombia in the Round of 16, they played arguably the most boring game of the tournament, going 0-0 even after extra time, before they finally won on penalty kicks.

It is hard to back Switzerland here because I do think that FIFA wants a France-Argentina title game. If either of these teams is likely to score goals, it will almost certainly be Argentina. Messi is too good for anyone to fully stop him. He was fairly quiet against Egypt but still scored late. I could see this game going under the 2.5 goals, though. The Swiss team doesn't play overaggressively and seems to be methodical with the ball.

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Lionel Messi of Argentina celebrates the team's third goal scored by Enzo Fernandez (not pictured) during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 16 match between Argentina and Egypt at Atlanta Stadium on July 7, 2026, in Atlanta, Georgia. (Elsa/Getty Images)

I also think the right play is the draw after 90 minutes. Argentina looks flawed lately. I think we can see another patient approach. It does make sense that Argentina is still the favorite, and maybe they come out aggressive to try and establish themselves. I'm taking Switzerland to get a draw through 90 at +255.

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